Cotton Bowl 2019: Full Preview and Predictions for Memphis vs. Penn State

The Memphis Tigers are the first Group of Five team since 2015 to enter the New Year's Six with a loss. 

In the previous two seasons, their American Athletic Conference counterpart, the UCF Knights, earned matchups with a power-conference program. 

The Penn State Nittany Lions are the second Big Ten squad to face off with the best Group of Five program in the New Year's Six.

In the first occurrence, the Wisconsin Badgers defeated the Western Michigan Broncos in the Cotton Bowl, where the Tigers and Nittany Lions face off December 28. 

Memphis' success led to Mike Norvell earning the Florida State job, and while Penn State did not lose its head coach, it made noise by extending James Franklin's contract after the regular season. 

Cotton Bowl Information

Date: Saturday, December 28

Start Time: Noon ET 

TV: ESPN 

Odds (via Vegas Insider): Penn State (-7); Over/Under: 60.5

Preview

Memphis could come into AT&T Stadium in a similar position as UCF went into the Peach Bowl two seasons ago. 

Norvell was introduced as Florida State's head coach Sunday, and he will take time to decide if he will coach in the Cotton Bowl, per The Athletic's Andy Staples. 

Before Scott Frost permanently left UCF for Nebraska, he coached the Knights to a victory over Auburn. 

Even without Norvell, the AAC champion could challenge Penn State's defense on a consistent basis. 

Brady White and Kenneth Gainwell form one of the best quarterback-running back tandems in the FBS, but they have not received as much as buzz as others due to their conference affiliation. 

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

White has 3,560 passing yards and 33 touchdowns, and he eclipsed the 200-yard mark in his last nine games. 

Gainwell earned 1,425 rushing yards and 12 scores in his freshman campaign, and at one point, he found the end zone on eight straight occasions. 

In all but one contest, the Tigers produced at least 25 points, and Saturday's 29-24 victory over Cincinnati featured their second-lowest total of the season. 

Although Penn State boasts the seventh-best scoring defense, it allowed over 20 points in each of its last four bowl games, three of which it lost. 

In their last two New Year's Six appearances, the Nittany Lions were gashed for 52 points by USC in the Rose Bowl and conceded 28 to Washington in the Fiesta Bowl. 

Their defense allowed over 20 points to Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio State, but they rebounded by holding Rutgers to six points in the Big Ten finale. 

The November performances should be a bit concerning ahead of meeting an explosive offense with a rare crack at a Power Five foe.

The good news for Penn State is Memphis' defense allows 24.4 points per game and conceded 133 points in its last five victories. 

Journey Brown, Noah Cain and others could find success on the ground, which would provide support for Sean Clifford or Will Levis. 

Barry Reeger/Associated Press

Levis replaced an injured Clifford against Rutgers and struggled to put up points in the first half. 

Clifford owns 27 total touchdowns and produced three or more passing scores on five occasions. His status should become clearer as the Cotton Bowl inches closer. 

Regardless of who is under center, the Nittany Lions possess a quick-strike offense through K.J. Hamler, who has 858 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. 

Between the speedy sophomore and tight end Pat Freiermuth, the 10th-ranked team could score in bunches, which is why the over should be the betting play.

Predictions

Penn State (-7) and Over 63.5

Both offenses possess enough playmakers to light up the scoreboard in each quarter. 

Expect Hamler and Freiermuth to find the end zone for the Nittany Lions, while the same can be said about Gainwell for the Tigers. 

Memphis' offense could keep the game close late into the second half, but Penn State may overwhelm it in the latter stages through its pass rush. 

Sack leaders Yetur Gross-Matos and Shaka Toney should put White under enough pressure to force stops at some junctures. 

That would allow the Penn State offense—no matter who is at quarterback—to drive down the field and build a comfortable advantage. 

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.