Bowl Projections 2019: Predictions for Alabama, Notre Dame and Top Teams
The Alabama Crimson Tide sit at a disadvantage in the College Football Playoff conversation.
Nick Saban's team should be the highest-ranked side not to compete in a conference championship, which puts more importance on Week 14's game against Auburn to impress the selection committee.
A dominant Iron Bowl win may not be enough to place the Crimson Tide in the playoff, as its resume might not match up with others.
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In the New Year's Six race, Notre Dame appears to be out of the picture after failing to gain ground in the AP Top 25. The Fighting Irish have an outside shot of making a major bowl, but it looks more apparent it will take over one of the ACC's top bowl positions in December.
Bowl Projections
College Football Playoff
Peach Bowl (December 28): No. 1 LSU vs. No. 4 Utah
Fiesta Bowl (December 28): No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson
New Year's Six
Cotton Bowl (December 28): Memphis vs. Florida
Orange Bowl (December 30): Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Rose Bowl (January 1): Oregon vs. Minnesota
Sugar Bowl (January 1): Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Other Bowls
Bahamas Bowl (December 20): Charlotte vs. Toledo
Frisco Bowl (December 20): Temple vs. Southern Miss
New Mexico Bowl (December 21): Florida International vs. San Diego State
Cure Bowl (December 21): Tulane vs. Arkansas State
Boca Raton Bowl (December 21): Liberty vs. Miami (Ohio)
Camellia Bowl (December 21): Central Michigan vs. Georgia State
Las Vegas Bowl (December 21): Washington State vs. Boise State
New Orleans Bowl (December 21): Marshall vs. Appalachian State
Gasparilla Bowl (December 23): SMU vs. Western Kentucky
Hawaii Bowl (December 24): BYU vs. Hawaii
Independence Bowl (December 26): Florida State vs. Louisiana Tech
Quick Lane Bowl (December 26): Michigan State vs. North Carolina
Military Bowl (December 27): Miami vs. Navy
Pinstripe Bowl (December 27): Pittsburgh vs. Indiana
Texas Bowl (December 27): Iowa State vs. Missouri
Holiday Bowl (December 27): Iowa vs. Washington
Cheez-It Bowl (December 27): Kansas State vs. Wyoming
Camping World Bowl (December 28): Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State
First Responder Bowl (December 30): TCU vs. Florida Atlantic
Music City Bowl (December 30): Virginia vs. Kentucky
Redbox Bowl (December 30): Illinois vs. Arizona State
Belk Bowl (December 31): Louisville vs. Mississippi State
Sun Bowl (December 31): Wake Forest vs. California
Liberty Bowl (December 31): Texas vs. Cincinnati
Arizona Bowl (December 31): Nevada vs. Georgia Southern
Alamo Bowl (December 31): Baylor vs. USC
Citrus Bowl (January 1): Wisconsin vs. Auburn
Outback Bowl (January 1): Penn State vs. Texas A&M
Birmingham Bowl (January 2): UAB vs. UCF
Gator Bowl (January 2): Michigan vs. Tennessee
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (January 3): Eastern Michigan vs. Utah State
Armed Forces Bowl (January 4): Buffalo vs. Air Force
LendingTree Bowl (January 6): Western Michigan vs. Louisiana
Predictions For Notable Teams
Alabama
Alabama sits in a similar position as two years ago.
The Crimson Tide will not be participating in the SEC Championship Game, but they still have a chance to qualify for the playoff.
Before campaigning for a final-four spot, it needs to dispense of Auburn with backup quarterback Mac Jones. The 21-year-old produced 275 passing yards and three touchdowns in his first start, but that came against FCS side Western Carolina.
Auburn is in a much different class, but it has not played well against Top 25 foes. The Tigers' three losses came against LSU, Georgia and Florida. In those three contests, Gus Malzahn's side averaged 15.7 points per game.
Conversely, Alabama has nine 40-plus point performances, and in the other two games, it earned at least 35 points. However, a dominant Iron Bowl outing may not be enough for the visiting Crimson Tide to secure a top-four spot.
Utah is dominating its Pac-12 opponents and could finish with a conference championship and its best win being over two-loss Oregon, which is 14th in the AP poll. In comparison, Alabama's top victory would occur Saturday versus Auburn and its only other Top 25 victory would be over Texas A&M (now 7-4 and no longer in the Top 25).
If the selection committee values Utah's potential Pac-12 title and better victory, the Tide will head to the Sugar Bowl.
The other scenario that lands them in New Orleans is a Georgia win over LSU in the SEC Championship Game, which may allow two SEC sides into the top four given how dominant the Tigers have looked.
In either of those scenarios, the Crimson Tide could be paired with Oklahoma if the latter wins the Big 12 Championship Game. That would set up a matchup between Sooners quarterback Jalen Hurts and his former squad.
There is also a chance Georgia ends up higher than Alabama following a SEC Championship Game defeat, which would shift the Bulldogs into an at-large spot in the New Year's Six.
But one-loss Alabama will likely remain at No. 5 as the best non-playoff one-loss team with two-loss Georgia a spot or two behind it.
Notre Dame
Notre Dame's New Year's Six hopes are bleak at the moment.
Even though Penn State and Oregon lost in Week 13, they ended up ahead of the Fighting Irish in the AP Top 25.
If the same order appears in the latest playoff rankings release Tuesday, the gap to the New Year's Six may be too steep to climb.
Two-loss Florida, with defeats to LSU and Georgia, may have priority over Penn State, Oregon and Notre Dame. If that is the case, the Gators, the Tide and the losers of the Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC and ACC Championship Games will slot into positions alongside the best Group of Five team and the Big 12 champion.
If the ACC Coastal winner loses to Clemson next week, that would allow Brian Kelly's team to take the conference's berth in the Camping World Bowl against a Big 12 opponent. The ACC title-game loser would be off to the Orange Bowl.
A second loss to Oklahoma would drop Baylor out of the New Year's Six picture and into the Alamo Bowl.
That would leave Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Kansas State as the top candidates in the Big 12's bowl hierarchy. The Cyclones face the Wildcats in Week 14, while the Cowboys take on Oklahoma.
The winner of the Iowa State-Kansas State matchup would be 8-4 overall and at least one game better than Texas.
Although a Notre Dame-Texas clash would be great for ticket sales and TV ratings, it does not appear likely to happen.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
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