College Football Picks Week 14: Predictions for Top 25 on Upcoming Schedule
In order to advance to the Big Ten Championship Game, Minnesota has to win back-to-back games over Wisconsin for the first time since 1993 and 1994.
The Big Ten West leader holds a one-game advantage on the Badgers, and it is possession of Paul Bunyan's Axe following the first win over its neighbor since 2003.
If P.J. Fleck's team finishes off a perfect home slate this season, the Golden Gophers will earn a matchup with Ohio State that keeps them on the fringe of the College Football Playoff for another week.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The Buckeyes won the Big Ten East through their Week 13 victory over Penn State, but they still have a difficult hurdle to overcome to reach Indianapolis with a perfect record.
Ryan Day's side visits a Michigan squad that has not won The Game in the Jim Harbaugh era began in 2015.
The Wolverines come into the clash with a four-game winning streak and an outside chance of landing in a New Year's Six bowl game.
Week 14 Schedule
All Times ET; predicted winners in bold
Friday, November 29
No. 23 Virginia Tech at Virginia (noon, ABC)
No. 19 Iowa at Nebraska (2:30 p.m., BTN)
No. 18 Cincinnati at No. 17 Memphis (3:30 p.m., ABC)
No. 20 Boise State at Colorado State (3:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
No. 22 Appalachian State at Troy (6 p.m., ESPN+)
Saturday, November 30
No. 2 Ohio State at No. 10 Michigan (noon, Fox)
No. 3 Clemson at South Carolina (noon, ESPN)
No. 4 Georgia at Georgia Tech (noon, ABC)
No. 5 Alabama at No. 16 Auburn (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Rutgers at No. 12 Penn State (3:30 p.m., BTN)
No. 13 Wisconsin at No. 9 Minnesota (3:30 p.m., ABC)
No. 11 Baylor at Kansas (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Oregon State at No. 14 Oregon (4 p.m., Pac-12 Network)
No. 15 Notre Dame at Stanford (4 p.m., Fox)
Texas A&M at No. 1 LSU (7 p.m., ESPN)
No. 24 Navy at Houston (7 p.m., ESPN2)
Colorado at No. 6 Utah (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Florida State at No. 8 Florida (7:30 p.m., SEC Network)
No. 7 Oklahoma at No. 21 Oklahoma State (8 p.m., Fox)
Predictions
Minnesota 24, Wisconsin 17
A year ago, Minnesota discovered a way to beat Wisconsin despite conceding 120 rushing yards to Jonathan Taylor. The Gophers used three interceptions and a punt-return touchdown to open up a 22-point margin of victory at Camp Randall Stadium.
They can follow a similar formula to secure the Big Ten West title and retain the Axe. It all starts with Tanner Morgan, who has thrown 13 touchdowns and two interceptions in the last six games.
In the last three contests, the sophomore completed at least 65 percent of his passes, mostly to Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman. Last week against Northwestern, 14 of Morgan's completions went to two wide receivers for 206 yards and four scores.
If the Gophers open up Wisconsin's secondary with a few big pass gains, that could allow Mohamed Ibrahim and Rodney Smith to achieve success on the ground. Ibrahim racked up 121 rushing yards on 26 carries in last season's triumph over the Badgers, while Smith eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark Saturday.
Both aspects of Minnesota's offense could thrive against a Badgers defense that has allowed 67 points to their last three opponents.
Of course, Paul Chryst's team is expected to counter with a heavy dose of Taylor, who enters off three consecutive 200-yard performances.
Containing Taylor on occasion is key to forcing Jack Coan to make a few plays with a collection of wideouts that has not had a 100-yard receiving game since Week 2.
His top target, Quintez Cephus, could be taken away by Antoine Winfield Jr., who leads Minnesota with 73 tackles and seven interceptions. If that occurs, the next best target could be Jake Ferguson, who has 310 receiving yards on 26 catches.
With the better all-around offensive threats and home-field advantage in tow, the Golden Gophers could qualify for their first Big Ten Championship Game and stay alive in the College Football Playoff race as a one-loss team.
Ohio State 34, Michigan 21
Michigan (9-2) is in line to hand Ohio State (11-0) its toughest test of the campaign.
Since losing to Penn State on October 19, the Wolverines have outscored opponents 166-45 and Shea Patterson is coming off back-to-back 300-yard passing outings. In the same stretch, Ohio State has outscored its four foes 195-59, with 28 of those points on offense coming in garbage time for Rutgers and Maryland.
There is a possibility the Chase Young-led pass rush puts Patterson under difficulty right away and allows Justin Fields, J.K. Dobbins and the offense to get out to a double-digit lead, just like it did versus Penn State.
If the offense avoids turnovers, it could blitz through the Wolverines defense and earn a third straight double-digit victory in the rivalry.
But Patterson has receiving threats in Donovan Peoples-Jones, Nico Collins and Ronnie Bell who could cause problems to the Ohio State secondary. Collins caught three touchdowns versus Indiana, Bell recorded 150 receiving yards versus Michigan State, and Peoples-Jones has 121 receiving yards and two scores on nine receptions in the last two weeks.
However, there is no guarantee all three will be effective versus an Ohio State defense that allows 126.2 passing yards and 91.2 rushing yards per game.
Michigan's defense concedes 16.2 points per contest, but it has not faced an offense with as many weapons as Ohio State.
Fields has scored 43 total touchdowns, Dobbins has 1,446 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns and Ohio State's top three targets have at least 450 receiving yards and six scores.
The Buckeyes' depth of playmakers, like wide receivers Chris Olave and K.J. Hill, could be too much for the Wolverines to handle.
An 11th 30-point performance of 2019 should be enough to place Ohio State one step away from the playoff and leave Michigan with three losses and a spot in a second-tier bowl.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
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