NCAA Football Rankings 2019: Predicting Movers in Week 14 After Latest Results
A slew of changes to the college football rankings are expected Sunday after Oregon and Penn State suffered Week 13 defeats.
Oregon's tumble will be more significant since the Ducks were on the edge of the top four in the College Football Playoff rankings. Penn State's defeat to Ohio State should keep it out of the New Year's Six since it is jockeying for position with a handful of other two-loss squads.
Those setbacks opened the door for Oklahoma to inch closer to Alabama and Utah in its quest to receive a playoff invitation. Lincoln Riley's side is expected to move up at least two spots, and it could benefit from more shortcomings in the next two weeks.
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Biggest Movers in Week 14 Polls
Oregon
The Ducks could be staring at a drop outside the top 10.
Their first loss since Week 1 came to an Arizona State side that lost four consecutive games before Saturday. Until the fourth-quarter comeback attempt, Oregon did not show many signs of life offensively, which could lead to less confidence from voters to keep it in the top 10.
Utah, Oklahoma and Minnesota, all of whom have one loss, should be ahead of Mario Cristobal's team on most, if not all, ballots.
The question pollsters have to ask themselves is how do the Ducks compare to other two-loss programs, such as Florida, Wisconsin and Michigan.
The Gators are 9-2, with their only two defeats coming to LSU and Georgia. Oregon's losses are to Auburn at a neutral site and the five-loss Arizona State. Because of their strength of schedule, Florida can stake a claim as the nation's best two-loss squad.
Michigan has won four in a row, while Wisconsin holds a three-game winning streak, and both have a pair of Top 25 victories.
The resumes of the Badgers and Wolverines, combined with the manner of Oregon's loss, could persuade voters to drop the Ducks at least six positions.
The fall could be steeper if one-loss Baylor, coming off a 24-10 win over Texas, is deemed a better team than the Pac-12 North winner. However, the Bears have been devalued in most polls all season and may not receive a ton of credit for beating a five-loss Longhorns side they were expected to take down.
Penn State
The case could be made to park Penn State in front of Oregon on some ballots because of how it avoided a humiliating loss to Ohio State.
James Franklin's Nittany Lions were the first team to stay within 20 points of the Buckeyes this season. Falling by 11 with a backup quarterback on the field may also resonate with voters when deciding Penn State's position.
If pollsters value head-to-head matchups, Penn State could slide behind Oklahoma, Minnesota and Florida but ahead of Michigan. But if that is not taken into consideration, it could tumble beneath Wisconsin and Michigan. However, the order of those programs may not matter in two weeks.
Penn State's final contest is at home versus Rutgers in Week 14, while the Wolverines host Ohio State and the Badgers visit Minnesota.
Since those sides could each lose an additional game, and the Minnesota-Wisconsin victor may fall in the Big Ten Championship Game, the Nittany Lions are still in decent shape.
Oklahoma
The Sooners were Week 13's biggest winner.
Moving up one spot through Penn State's loss was massive in itself for Oklahoma's playoff hopes, but it received an extra jolt from Arizona State's upset of Oregon. That puts Jalen Hurts and Co. no lower than No. 7 going into Bedlam against Oklahoma State and the Big 12 Championship Game versus Baylor.
Oklahoma still needs LSU to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and Oregon to upset Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game to stake its claim to No. 4, but it has taken steps in the right direction.
In their best-case scenario, the Sooners would be compared to Alabama for the fourth playoff position. That is where unconvincing home wins over Iowa State and TCU could come into the picture. The Sooners held on to beat the Cyclones by one point and committed some fourth-quarter errors to keep the Horned Frogs around Saturday.
But for now, voters can justify placing them at No. 7 with two games left to prove they are worthy of a higher jump.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
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