College Football Playoff: Potential Disaster Scenarios After Week 13 Ranking

LSU remains atop the latest College Football Playoff rankings, and the forecast is steady along with it. At this point, most projections include LSU, Ohio State, Clemson and one of Oklahoma, Oregon or Utah to reach the championship tournament.

But will it really be that easy?

Georgia is still No. 4, while Alabama and Penn State are on the edge of contention and both Minnesota and Baylor are hoping to resurface in the conversation. Depending on whom you ask, there are nine, 10 or 11 programs still in the CFP race.

Perhaps the only upcoming losses for that collection of teams end up being the anticipated results. Upsets are classified as that for a clear reason; maybe what we expect will actually happen.

That's not a whole lot of fun, though. What if South Carolina pulls off a second major upset and derails Clemson? Or Georgia upends LSU in the SEC Championship Game? Or Minnesota rebounds from its loss and manages to win the Big Ten crown?

Some scenarios are relatively mild, but others may lead to chaos for the CFP selection committee.

Georgia Loses to Texas A&M, Defeats LSU

While most everyone accepts the SEC champion will reach the playoff, that's usually under the assumption the winner will have a 12-1 record at worst. Georgia has already clinched a place in Atlanta, but the Dawgs must navigate a clash with Texas A&M first.

To this point, no two-loss squad has ever played in the CFP.

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Since Georgia has already topped Notre Dame, Florida and Auburn, a win over LSU would probably be enough to break the trend. That means the Top Four―assuming no other upsets in this scenario―would include Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia and a fourth.

It'd have to be LSU, right? The Tigers have thrived offensively this year and previously beat Florida, Auburn and Alabama. The committee can deem LSU a tier above the Big 12 and Pac-12 winners.

Utah winning the Pac-12 would complicate the discussion, since both Georgia and LSU can tout a head-to-head win against Auburn but Oregon fell to the Tigers. Granted, the Utes would likely fall short in this scenario because of their loss to USC.

Penn State Upsets Ohio State

If Ohio State beats Penn State, the Buckeyes secure a place in Indianapolis. If Penn State wins, the Nittany Lions merely need a victory over Rutgers in the regular-season finale to clinch that spot. Easy enough.

But a PSU win would alter the Big Ten's path to the CFP. Ohio State is a certain qualifier at 13-0, but Penn State―though likely at 12-1―and Minnesota aren't guaranteed a spot by winning out. The conference would immediately turn to hoping Georgia does not win the SEC.

As long as LSU edges Georgia, the Big Ten champion should be in alongside Clemson and a 12-1 Pac-12 winner or 12-1 Oklahoma.

Otherwise, the committee would only have one position left beyond Clemson, Georgia and LSU. Oregon could have 12 straight wins, whereas Utah may have just defeated that surging Oregon team.

Penn State or Minnesota should end with a larger collection of quality wins, yet the committee has valued the Pac-12 teams―at least during the last two rankings―and Oregon or Utah would also pick up a victory over a Top Seven opponent.

That decision could go either way.

South Carolina Stuns Clemson

Clemson has dominated―and we mean absolutely crushed―its opposition this season. Other than the scare at North Carolina, the Tigers have nine victories of 30-plus points and 14-point win against Texas A&M. They're second nationally in yards allowed per play and fourth on the offensive side.

Let's be clear: Clemson is likely to finish 13-0.

Richard Shiro/Associated Press

Besides, there is a reasonable argument that Clemson would be one of the best four teams in the nation even if it lost a game. 

Perhaps the committee will not grant that benefit of the doubt if Clemson loses to rival South Carolina. This is the most interesting scenario because most predictions have Clemson going undefeated. One unexpected spot could become open.

Which could lead to chaos.

One option is LSU, Ohio State, the Pac-12 winner and Oklahoma. Another is LSU, Georgia, Penn State and the Pac-12 winner. Would this be enough for Alabama to rejoin the picture? What about Baylor? And if Baylor is 12-1, does an 11-1 Clemson or Ohio State deserve to be included over the Bears?

In all likelihood, the conversations will not be this dramatic. But a Clemson loss would create a bunch of possibilities that otherwise won't surface in the committee room.

The Master-of-Disaster Scenario

Throw on that hypothetical hard hat, because this one is a doozy.

Georgia loses to Texas A&M but edges LSU to win the SEC. Penn State beats Ohio State. Alabama crushes Auburn. Clemson falls to South Carolina. Oregon loses before the Pac-12 title, but the Ducks recover to clip Utah.

So, what's left? Georgia is in, and LSU should be too. A one-loss Big Ten champion makes the field.

But then you have Alabama's great effort after Tua Tagovailoa's injury compared to a one-loss Ohio State, which has a tougher schedule than Clemson―but the Tigers are conference champions while neither Bama nor OSU is.

Lastly, does a 12-1 Oklahoma team own the advantage on that entire group? CFP committee chairman Rob Mullens already acknowledged the group is monitoring the Sooners' flaw.

What if the Sooners look unimpressive, especially on defense, in season-ending wins over TCU, Oklahoma State and Baylor? Oklahoma's defense is statistically comparable to LSU's, but the committee doesn't exactly come to the most consistent conclusions.

Fair or unfair, that's up for debate. Nevertheless, we can't be positive how this discussion would end.

If you're pulling for Team Chaos, this is your scenario.

Stats from NCAA.com, cfbstats.com or B/R research. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.