Bowl Projections 2019: CFP Predictions, Postseason Outlook Heading into Week 12
Tuesday's College Football Playoff rankings provided us with a clearer picture of which teams will land playoff spots.
LSU, Ohio State and Clemson reside in a class above the rest of the Top 25, and given the way each team has played, it is hard to see them slipping from the top three positions.
If that occurs, a wide-open debate for the No. 4 seed may ensue, with Alabama, Oregon and Oklahoma potentially making cases for the final slot.
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Starting with Saturday's Oklahoma-Baylor clash, there are a handful of contests that could make the decision-making process a bit easier for the selection committee.
College Football Playoff Predictions
Peach Bowl (December 28): No. 1 LSU vs. No. 4 Oregon
Fiesta Bowl (December 28): No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson
LSU has earned its position atop the playoff rankings, and it is hard to see it falling before December.
The combined record of the Tigers' next three opponents is 12-17, and that is a bit misleading because Texas A&M accounts for six of those victories.
Ed Orgeron's side has scored 420 points in SEC play, the second-most behind Alabama. Ole Miss and Arkansas are two of five programs to concede over 235 points in conference action. Three more victories would hand LSU the SEC West crown and allow Joe Burrow to boost his Heisman Trophy resume.
A challenge from fourth-ranked Georgia likely awaits in the SEC Championship Game. That matchup would produce a clash of one of the best offenses versus the SEC's top scoring defense.
Kirby Smart's Bulldogs have shut out two of their past three opponents and could enter Atlanta with a resume holding three wins over Top 12 squads. Georgia is capable of beating LSU, but the Tigers have proved home and away that they can beat the top teams in the country.
The top-ranked side has three one-possession wins over ranked foes and a 14-point triumph over Florida to back up why it should be the favorite in Atlanta.
Ohio State is blazing a similar path, but it has a few more hurdles standing in its way. After they cruise through Rutgers, which is 0-6 in the Big Ten, the Buckeyes face a gauntlet of Penn State at home, a trip to Michigan and the Big Ten Championship Game.
The clash with Penn State lost some buzz after James Franklin's side suffered its first defeat at Minnesota in Week 11. The Nittany Lions have looked strong in spurts, but they have not put together as many complete performances as Ohio State.
Michigan may be the toughest of the two tests because it is looking to break a seven-game losing streak to Ohio State. Even though the Wolverines have been out of the national conversation, they looked strong against Notre Dame and Maryland and could gain momentum from wins over Michigan State and Indiana.
However, Jim Harbaugh's side might not have enough offensive firepower to match up with Justin Fields, J.K. Dobbins and Co., and it has to face Chase Young, who is considered the most dominant pass-rusher in college football.
Clemson's road is far less complicated, as it has no ranked sides left on the schedule and should be a double-digit favorite in the ACC Championship Game. Wake Forest was the Tigers' top contender until the Demon Deacons fell to Virginia Tech in Week 11, leaving no other ACC sides in the Top 25.
If Dabo Swinney's side goes undefeated alongside LSU and Ohio State, it would likely garner the No. 3 seed because of its lack of high-profile wins. In that scenario, Georgia, Minnesota and Penn State would all be knocked out of contention for the No. 4 seed.
That leaves Alabama, the Pac-12 champion and Big 12 winner, but based off the way the committee values Baylor, a win over the Bears may not be enough to boost Oklahoma from No. 10 to No. 4.
If LSU lands in Atlanta, the Crimson Tide would sit at home during conference championship weekend, just like they did in 2017 before qualifying for the playoff.
But that year, Nick Saban's side had three wins over ranked foes. In 2019, it has one over a Texas A&M squad that dropped out of the Top 25 a few weeks back.
If Oregon wins out, it would possess 12 straight wins, a Pac-12 title, a top-10 victory over Utah and its only loss would be to Auburn at a neutral site.
That may be enough to power the Ducks to No. 4 and drop the Crimson Tide to the Sugar Bowl for a possible meeting with Oklahoma.
New Year's Six
Cotton Bowl (December 28): Memphis vs. Baylor
Orange Bowl (December 30): Georgia vs. Wake Forest
Rose Bowl (January 1): Minnesota vs. Utah
Sugar Bowl (January 1): Alabama vs. Oklahoma
If Alabama and Oklahoma do not reach the playoff, they will likely square off in New Orleans on New Year's Day. Sooners quarterback Jalen Hurts facing his former team would be the most compelling storyline of the New Year's Six bowls.
As the projected losers of the Big Ten and Pac-12 Championship Games, Minnesota and Utah would earn trips to the Rose Bowl. Even if the Golden Gophers lose to Iowa or Wisconsin, they still hold a two-game advantage in the loss column in the Big Ten West.
Three-loss Wake Forest could be the best ACC option to fill the conference's spot in the Orange Bowl. The Demon Deacons may finish with the top record behind Clemson if the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner falls to the Tigers in the ACC Championship Game.
Memphis or Cincinnati should represent the Group of Five in the Cotton Bowl. The Tigers have a slight advantage because they host the Bearcats November 29 and hold victories over SMU, Navy and Tulane.
The final at-large berth may end up with Baylor depending on how well it plays against Oklahoma. If the Bears impress the selection committee in Saturday's meeting with the Sooners, they could move up from No. 13 and be in better position to participate in the Cotton Bowl.
If Baylor is not the option, look for two-loss Auburn, Florida or Penn State, all of whom would have defeats to top-10 foes on their respective resumes, to fill the spot.
Bowl Projections
Bahamas Bowl (December 20): Marshall vs. Buffalo
Frisco Bowl (December 20): Temple vs. Florida International
New Mexico Bowl (December 21): Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Cure Bowl (December 21): Georgia Southern vs. Liberty
Boca Raton Bowl (December 21): Tulane vs. Charlotte
Camellia Bowl (December 21): Miami (Ohio) vs. Georgia State
Las Vegas Bowl (December 21): Washington State vs. Boise State
New Orleans Bowl (December 21): Louisiana Tech vs. Appalachian State
Gasparilla Bowl (December 23): UCF vs. Southern Miss
Hawaii Bowl (December 24): BYU vs. Hawaii
Independence Bowl (December 26): Florida State vs. Florida Atlantic
QuickLane Bowl (December 26): North Carolina vs. Michigan State
Military Bowl (December 27): Louisville vs. Navy
Pinstripe Bowl (December 27): Pittsburgh vs. Illinois
Texas Bowl (December 27): Oklahoma State vs. Mississippi State
Holiday Bowl (December 27): Iowa vs. Washington
Cheez-It Bowl (December 27): TCU vs. Stanford
Camping World Bowl (December 28): Notre Dame vs. Kansas State
First Responder Bowl (December 30): SMU vs. UAB
Music City Bowl (December 30): Virginia vs. Tennessee
Redbox Bowl (December 30): Indiana vs. Arizona State
Belk Bowl (December 31): Virginia Tech vs. Missouri
Sun Bowl (December 31): Miami vs. California
Liberty Bowl (December 31): Iowa State vs. Kentucky
Arizona Bowl (December 31): Wyoming vs. Arkansas State
Alamo Bowl (December 31): Texas vs. USC
Citrus Bowl (January 1): Wisconsin vs. Florida
Outback Bowl (January 1): Penn State vs. Auburn
Birmingham Bowl (January 2): Cincinnati vs. Nevada
Gator Bowl (January 2): Michigan vs. Texas A&M
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (January 3): Central Michigan vs. Utah State
Armed Forces Bowl (January 4): Air Force vs. Toledo
Mobile Alabama Bowl (January 6): Western Michigan vs. Louisiana
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
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