Bowl Projections 2019: Updated CFP Predictions for Week 12

On Tuesday, the second edition of this season's College Football Playoff rankings will be released by the selection committee, and there should be a new team at No. 1.

LSU improved to 9-0 with its best win of the season on Saturday, a 46-41 road victory at Alabama to take control of the SEC West and become the clear favorite to go on to win the conference championship. The Tigers had already been ranked No. 1 in the AP poll ahead of that game, as they also own quality victories over Texas, Auburn and Florida.

While Ohio State will surely also stay in the top four, there are likely to be some changes at the other two playoff spots after Alabama and Penn State suffered their first losses of the season over the weekend.

Heading into Week 12 of the college football season, here's a look at current projections for the College Football Playoff and the rest of the New Year's Six bowl games.

Bowl Projections

College Football Playoff

Peach Bowl (Dec. 28): LSU vs. Oklahoma

Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 28): Ohio State vs. Clemson

New Year's Six

Cotton Bowl (Dec. 28): Cincinnati vs. Florida

Orange Bowl (Dec. 30): Wake Forest vs. Georgia

Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1): Alabama vs. Baylor

Rose Bowl (Jan. 1): Oregon vs. Minnesota

College Football Playoff Picture

With LSU and Ohio State secured in the top two spots, expect Clemson to move into the No. 3 slot this week.

Not much has changed for the Tigers since they were ranked No. 5 last week, the first spot out of playoff position. As expected, they rolled to a 55-10 road win over NC State, and they still haven't faced a team that is currently ranked.

But Clemson is 10-0, and outside of a one-point win over North Carolina earlier in the season, it's cruised through its ACC schedule. The level of competition in the conference may not be great, but the Tigers have been impressive enough to be deserving of a playoff spot.

However, if Clemson loses at any point in the final two weeks of the regular season, when it faces Wake Forest and South Carolina, or in the ACC championship game, it will likely fall out of CFP contention. There's no room for error for the Tigers, but it sure seems unlikely they're going to lose at this point.

The biggest question this week is which team will be in the No. 4 spot in the CFP rankings. Alabama may not have any huge wins, but its only loss is to LSU. Oklahoma and Baylor are both having strong seasons in the Big 12, Oregon and Utah are thriving in the Pac-12, Georgia remains a contender in the SEC and Minnesota has emerged as a top team in the Big Ten.

No matter which team is in the No. 4 spot this week, it won't be clear which team is actually most deserving until the end of the regular season and conference championship games.

At this point, Oklahoma appears to be a good choice to get the final CFP spot. The Sooners have impressed outside of their one loss to Kansas State, and they own a win over Texas. But their CFP fate could be decided this Saturday.

Oklahoma is traveling to take on undefeated Baylor, which would also enter the playoff conversation with a win. It's possible these two teams will face again in the Big 12 championship game in a few weeks, so if the Sooners or Bears beat the other twice, it's quite likely that team will get into the CFP.

But it seems more plausible that that team will be Oklahoma. Jalen Hurts is having an impressive season for the Sooners, passing for 2,742 yards and 24 touchdowns while rushing for 869 yards and 15 scores. He should continue to play at an elite level and help guide the Sooners to the Big 12 title and a playoff berth.