Nick Saban Says Alabama Doesn't Control Its CFP Destiny After Loss to LSU

No. 3 Alabama lost to No. 2 LSU 46-41 on Saturday in Tuscaloosa, and after the game, Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban told reporters he doesn't believe his team controls its destiny for a College Football Playoff spot.

"I think everybody's got to make a commitment to finish the season the right way," Saban said, per Mike Rodak of AL.com. "We don't control our own destiny."

FiveThirtyEight updated its playoff projections after Alabama's loss, with the Crimson Tide being given just a 12 percent chance to make the four-team field. Eight teams have better odds, while Penn State is tied with Alabama at ninth on the list.

Clemson, LSU and Ohio State figure to have the top three spots barring some shocking losses down the stretch. The fourth spot is wide open and could be filled by the Pac-12 champion or the Big 12 champion, among others.

ESPN's Heather Dinich, who covers the College Football Playoff, also offered her take on Alabama's chances:

The Crimson Tide have two large minuses on their CFP resume.

First, their best win is against Texas A&M, which is currently on the outside looking into the Top 25 in the CFP standings.

Alabama can correct that with a road Iron Bowl win over No. 11 Auburn, but that doesn't change the fact that the Crimson Tide's chances to make the SEC championship game are slim post-loss.

LSU, which leads the SEC West at 5-0 over 5-1 Alabama, should be the heavy favorites in it closing games over Ole Miss, Arkansas and Texas A&M. The Tigers would advance to the SEC title even if they lose one given that they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Crimson Tide. That in turn prevents Alabama from boosting its resume over another SEC power (No. 6 Georgia currently leads the East).

Ultimately, as Saban said, Alabama doesn't control its own playoff destiny, meaning it's more likely than not that the Crimson Tide will stay home for the College Football Playoff for the first time since the format's 2014 debut.