Bowl Predictions 2019: Updated Predictions After Week 11 CFP Rankings
It's not often that one Saturday features two college football games between four undefeated ranked teams this late into the season.
In fact, according to ESPN, Saturday will be the first time in the AP poll era that there will be two games between ranked teams that are both 8-0 or better in the same day. No. 1 LSU is traveling to take on No. 2 Alabama, while No. 5 Penn State will face No. 13 Minnesota on the road.
These games also feature three of the four teams that were in the top four spots in the first College Football Playoff rankings. LSU is at No. 2, Alabama at No. 3 and Penn State at No. 4.
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The matchup between the Tigers and Crimson Tide is huge, as it could determine which team goes on to win the SEC Championship Game and could also affect the CFP landscape.
Entering Week 11, here's a look at the projections for the College Football Playoff and the rest of the New Year's Six games.
Bowl Projections
College Football Playoff
Peach Bowl (Dec. 28): Alabama vs. Clemson
Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 28): Ohio State vs. LSU
New Year's Six
Cotton Bowl (Dec. 28): Cincinnati vs. Baylor
Orange Bowl (Dec. 30): Wake Forest vs. Florida
Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1): Oklahoma vs. Georgia
Rose Bowl (Jan. 1): Oregon vs. Penn State
College Football Playoff Storylines
Can 2 SEC Teams Make the CFP?
If Alabama beats LSU on Saturday, then there's a good chance that both teams could make the Playoff, assuming that neither loses another game this season.
The Tigers will likely give the Crimson Tide a strong game even if they are defeated, and they already own a pair of quality wins over Florida and Auburn. They also notched a solid non-conference road win earlier in the season when they defeated Texas.
However, if Alabama loses to LSU, then it may be difficult for the CFP selection committee to justify putting the Crimson Tide in the CFP. Not one of Alabama's eight wins has been against a ranked team, and its only game against a ranked opponent in the final three weeks is its regular-season finale against Auburn.
So in order for the SEC to get two teams into the Playoff, Alabama likely needs to go undefeated and LSU's only loss can be against the Crimson Tide.
How About the Big Ten?
Just like the SEC, the Big Ten had two teams in the top four in the first CFP rankings. Ohio State is at No. 1 and Penn State is at No. 4. But both of these schools still have their most difficult games ahead of them.
Ohio State plays Penn State and Michigan in the final two weeks of the regular season, while Penn State still has road games against a pair of undefeated Big Ten teams in Ohio State and Minnesota.
While the matchup between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions will likely determine which team goes on to win the Big Ten championship, it may not affect the CFP picture that much. If one of those teams goes undefeated and one of them has only one loss, which is to the other, there could be an argument for both Ohio State and Penn State to reach the CFP.
However, if the Buckeyes or Nittany Lions lose any other games along the way, that will make that less likely of a scenario.
What Does Clemson Need to Do to Get In?
First, the Tigers can't lose. They need to win the rest of their games, including the ACC Championship Game—and do so in impressive fashion. Part of the reason they were at No. 5 in the initial CFP rankings is likely because of their unimpressive one-point victory over North Carolina.
Clemson's resume will get a bit better if it goes undefeated, as it would then own wins over Wake Forest and whichever team it faces in the ACC Championship Game. But the Tigers have no margin for error, and each week, they need to prove they're worthy of returning to the CFP.
It would also help Clemson if at least one of the top four teams suffers a surprising upset loss. If Ohio State, LSU, Alabama or Penn State falls to an unranked team at any point in November, that should help Clemson climb up into a CFP position.
For now, the Tigers just have to take care of what they can and hope the selection committee includes them in the CFP when that time comes.
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