Bowl Predictions 2019: Complete CFP Projections Following Week 10

Joe Tansey

Nov 3, 2019

The College Football Playoff outlook was not changed by Week 10's results.

Alabama, LSU, Ohio State and Penn State were all off, and Clemson steamrolled Wofford on home soil.

When the first playoff rankings come out Tuesday, those five teams should sit at the top. Georgia will likely slot in beneath them after beating Florida on Saturday.

TOP NEWS

The playoff projections will be altered following Week 11, but that depends on how close the LSU-Alabama game is. If the SEC West showdown goes to the wire, it could open the door for both teams to still qualify for the playoff.

College Football Playoff Projections

Peach Bowl (December 28): No. 1 LSU vs. No. 4 Clemson

Fiesta Bowl (December 28): No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Alabama

LSU or Ohio State should be No. 1 Tuesday evening.

The Tigers' resume contains three victories over top-10 sides, while Ohio State has been consistently dominant through eight games.

Ed Orgeron's team should receive the edge based off strength of schedule, as it downed Texas, Florida and Auburn. The win over the Gators could carry less weight to the selection committee because they fell to Georgia in Jacksonville.

The argument against LSU's quality wins is Texas, Florida and Auburn have since dropped out of the playoff conversation after suffering multiple losses.

Ohio State has two wins over ranked foes. The first was over then-25th ranked Michigan State and the other was a 31-point blowout of Wisconsin.

Ryan Day's team likely will not be tested again until November 23, when it hosts Penn State. It faces Maryland and Rutgers in the next two weeks.

For now, Alabama belongs in the top four. The Crimson Tide may not have a shot at No. 1 since their only triumph over a ranked side occurred against Texas A&M. But Nick Saban's side deserves credit for remaining undefeated and not skipping a beat without the injured Tua Tagovailoa in Week 9 versus Arkansas.

A win over LSU could boost Alabama up to No. 1, and it would ignite the debate surrounding the loser's playoff credentials.

One of the December decisions that could be made involves putting in a one-loss LSU or Alabama without a conference championship game appearance over a one-loss conference champion. Once the Week 11 clash has been played at Bryant-Denny Stadium, we can have that discussion based on how well the loser performed.

Clemson has blown past its last four opponents, which should be enough to earn the No. 4 spot. The toughest test left for Dabo Swinney's program occurs November 16 versus Wake Forest, the only other ranked side in the ACC.

Penn State may be on the outside looking in Tuesday, but it has an opportunity to vault into the top four by beating Minnesota and Ohio State in two of the next three weeks.

New Year's Six Projections

Cotton Bowl (December 28): Memphis vs. Utah

Orange Bowl (December 30): Wake Forest vs. Florida

Rose Bowl (January 1): Penn State vs. Oregon

Sugar Bowl (January 1): Georgia vs. Oklahoma

Florida's loss to Georgia may not affect its at-large status for the New Year's Six. With defeats to LSU and Georgia, Dan Mullen's side may still be able to slide into a position if it wins out.

If Georgia wins every game before the SEC Championship, its worst-case scenario will be a Sugar Bowl appearance. The same can be said about Oklahoma in the Big 12, but it faces a more difficult schedule, with Baylor upcoming November 16.

Oregon and Utah are on a collision course for the Pac-12 Championship Game, and if both enter that contest with one loss, they may head to New Year's Six contests.

Memphis is the new favorite to represent the Group of Five after its home victory over SMU. The Tigers' top challenge could be beating Cincinnati in two straight weeks. The American Athletic Conference division favorites are already scheduled to play November 29.

Bowl Projections

Bahamas Bowl (December 20): Western Kentucky vs. Ball State

Frisco Bowl (December 20): Temple vs. Miami (Ohio)

New Mexico Bowl (December 21): Louisiana Tech vs. Utah State

Cure Bowl (December 21): South Florida vs. Georgia Southern

Boca Raton Bowl (December 21): UCF vs. Marshall

Camellia Bowl (December 21): Western Michigan vs. Louisiana

Las Vegas Bowl (December 21): California vs. Boise State

New Orleans Bowl (December 21): Tulane vs. Appalachian State

Gasparilla Bowl (December 23): SMU vs. Southern Mississippi

Hawaii Bowl (December 24): BYU vs. Hawai'i

Independence Bowl (December 26): North Carolina vs. UAB