College Football Playoff: Ohio State Is No. 1, But Week 11 Is What Matters
This morning, I reached for my phone, hit "stop" on the alarm and proceeded to open Twitter. I'm not proud of my morning routine―particularly since it rarely includes breakfast―but it's what happens. The rest of the day included work, lunch and watching the wild Chelsea/Ajax draw in the Champions League.
I'm telling you this because I want you to understand how much anyone should stress about the first College Football Playoff rankings.
Yes, the initial CFP Top 25 is notable. The poll provides insight into how the selection committee perceives certain teams and addresses a few initial questions. Which victories mean most? Who's getting a pass? How are they weighing head-to-head results?
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Right now, the Top 5 goes Ohio State, LSU, Alabama, Penn State and Clemson in descending order. No matter how they were listed, disagreements were inevitable. However, four regular-season weeks and conference championship games remain.
The committee's answers to those questions will change. So will the rankings.
Is your favorite team ranked too low? (Clemson fans, I'm mostly talking to you.) Of course it is! But if your underrated team doesn't go undefeated for the rest of the season, it probably won't reach the College Football Playoff anyway.
Is your favorite team's rival ranked too high? You betcha! But if that program doesn't―you get the picture.
The too-long, didn't-read version of the above section? Disappointment is inevitable, yet stressing about the current Top 25 is wasted energy.
Ohio State head coach Ryan Day nicely summarized the situation.
Rankings are fun, popular and mostly harmless. No matter whether you're a reader or writer, filling out a Top 25 can be enjoyable. Still, an August or September or October or early November ranking is not what championship-competing programs care about.
For them, all that matters is Selection Day, December 8.
"Win and you're in" oversimplifies the discussion considering 12-0 UCF teams missed the CFP in both 2017 and 2018. For power-conference schools, though, "win and you're in" is the greatest rallying cry.
Good-natured conversations about rankings can be valuable. Along the way, you might learn a few interesting details and see your opinion swayed one direction or the other.
But the yelling and screaming sure to follow? There's no sense in that. The poll is going to change next Tuesday anyway.
The Big 12 vs. Pac-12 Debate
As the rankings currently stand, neither the Big 12 nor Pac-12 would be involved in the CFP. Oklahoma and Baylor check in at ninth and 12th, respectively, while Oregon and Utah sit seventh and eighth.
There is plenty of time for that to change, yet denying the reality of this situation isn't useful.
In all likelihood, the SEC champion, Big Ten champion and Clemson will occupy three of the College Football Playoff spots. Upsets may happen, but it's reasonable to expect some combination of Alabama/LSU, Ohio State/Penn State and Clemson in the field. Which conference will be left out?
True, it's plausible that both leagues are sidelined in 2019. If the SEC has a one-loss non-champion―particularly Alabama or LSU―that team will have a chance to make the CFP.
Barring a meltdown in the ACC or Big Ten, though, this conversation is an either/or dilemma.
Oregon is ranked higher than OU and Baylor right now, but the Big 12 schools have more chances at quality wins. The Sooners might end the regular season with victories over 5-3 Iowa State, 8-0 Baylor and 6-3 Oklahoma State. Baylor could pad its resume by beating 7-1 Oklahoma and 5-3 Texas.
Oregon has 5-3 Arizona State and a potential Pac-12 title clash with Utah, which has three remaining opponents who are 4-5 or worse.
Based on the upcoming schedules, the committee might deem a one-loss Big 12 team superior to the one-loss Pac-12 programs. If Oklahoma, Oregon and Utah keep winning, there may be some jostling in the rankings. The question then shifts to whether a marquee Pac-12 title game would be enough for Oregon or Utah to overtake the Big 12 winner in the rankings.
But we'll cross that bridge if our path demands it.
Group of 5 Watch
Over the last three weeks, the last undefeated Group of Five teams fell. First was Boise State's letdown at BYU, then Appalachian State losing to Georgia Southern and SMU toppling Memphis.
That sure made this conversation interesting, though!
Other one-loss Group of Five teams include Cincinnati, Memphis, San Diego State, Navy and Louisiana Tech. With four weeks remaining, eight programs are thus vying for the coveted New Year's Six bowl berth.
None of the octet square off in Week 11, but regular-season matchups still on the docket include SMU at Navy and Cincinnati at Memphis. Navy also travels to Notre Dame, while Boise State and SDSU could meet in the Mountain West championship game.
Plus, the American Athletic Conference championship game is likely to provide a meaningful boost to one of Cincinnati, Memphis, SMU or Navy. That might be the most important Group of Five game left.
The long story short? There will be natural separation within this congested group, yet a deserving 12-1 team should emerge.
What to Know for Week 11
If you aren't already excited about LSU's trip to Alabama, I can't say anything here to convince you. A showdown between the nation's No. 2 and 3 teams should be reason enough.
Whichever team earns the victory in Tuscaloosa may be ranked No. 1 in next week's CFP poll and will be considered the front-runner in the SEC. Plus, it will be the beneficiary of the seemingly inevitable "what happens if 11-1 Georgia defeats a 12-0 West Division winner in the SEC championship game?" talk.
But the loser isn't eliminated, either.
If that program finishes the regular season at 11-1, the CFP committee has the ability to decide Alabama or LSU is a superior team compared to a one-loss Big 12 or Pac-12 champion. Conference titles would not factor into the discussion.
Like it or not, that's a reasonable conversation to have―especially if the team in question is LSU.
That won't be the narrative for the Big Ten, however. Reaching the CFP hinges on winning the conference.
Fortunately for both Penn State and Minnesota, that remains a possibility. They're both 8-0 heading into Saturday's clash, and an undefeated Big Ten champion is absolutely going to the playoff.
Granted, Penn State still travels to Ohio State later this month. Even if Minnesota wins Saturday, it's going to meet either Penn State or Ohio State in the conference title game. The Gophers also need to navigate Iowa and Wisconsin this month anyway.
This victory is critical. Yet the harsh truth is that Ohio State may render the result meaningless with regard to the CFP picture.
But no matter what, it's merely the first step of a long process―something that applies to every single team in the Top 25.
Stats from NCAA.com, cfbstats.com or B/R research. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
