Golden State Warriors Have a Blueprint from the '90s to Extend Dynasty

For at least one year, the broken hand Stephen Curry suffered in Wednesday's 121-110 loss to the Phoenix Suns alters the NBA's 2019-20 landscape.

Even after the Golden State Warriors got off to a 1-3 start, FiveThirtyEight's projections give them a 51 percent chance to make the playoffs. That doesn't account for however much time Curry will miss, though.

In Street Clothes' Jeff Stotts explained the potential timeline:

"The InStreetClothes.com/SMART database has seven recent examples of second metacarpal fractures, including Westbrook, Danny Green, and Nikola Vucevic. Of these seven players, four required surgery. The average missed time for these injuries is 16 games. The recovery time for non-surgical cases is cut in half as these individuals missed an average of just eight games. 

"Curry is slated to undergo a CT scan at some point Thursday to determine the extent of the break. The team will then determine whether or not he will require a trip to the operating room. For now, Warriors fans can brace themselves for at least a two week absence with  more prolonged timeline if surgery is required."

In the ultracompetitive Western Conference, even a few weeks without your best player can spell doom for your postseason prospects, especially after a 1-3 start that looked borderline tankworthy with Curry.

As Tankathon pointed out, it might be time for the Warriors to pivot toward the future:

As of Thursday morning, the Warriors have a 4.5 percent shot at the No. 1 overall pick. If they finish with one of the league's three worst records, they'll have a 14 percent chance to land the top pick.

Those odds have to be intriguing, even if the team owner Joe Lacob isn't ready to go there yet (via ESPN's Ramona Shelburne):

"It is against every single thing I and we stand for. We will fight like hell. Develop our young guys. Learn to win. You don't get better by trying to lose. Our entire organization is about winning. And we will win. Some bumps in the road, perhaps. But we will never accept losing."

Lacob said that Wednesday in the emotional aftermath of Curry's injury. Will the organization's stance change after Curry's timetable to return emerges? After a few weeks of seeing this roster without him?

For a Warriors team that has experienced unparalleled success over the last half-decade, resisting the impulse to tank is understandable. But eventually accepting it almost feels inevitable.

FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR projection system forecast Curry for 12.0 wins above replacement this season. Jordan Poole, Jacob Evans, Omari Spellman, Glenn Robinson III, Marquese Chriss, Eric Paschall and Alen Smailagic are projected for a combined 0.8.

Can Draymond Green, D'Angelo Russell, Willie Cauley-Stein, Kevon Looney and Alec Burks (who might even belong in the first group) carry a young supporting cast at that level to the postseason?

The stark reality facing the Warriors is that this roster isn't very good.

If given the opportunity to do the last few years over, the organization would go down this same path 10 times out of 10. Of course you sacrifice some depth and long-term potential to add Kevin Durant to a championship core.

But this fallout was almost certainly going to happen at some point. Klay Thompson and Curry's injuries just accelerated that timeline.

Here's the silver lining, though: It's OK to tank. Especially in a unique circumstance.

The San Antonio Spurs faced a similar outlook in the mid-90s. From 1989-90 to 1995-96, David Robinson averaged 25.6 points, 11.8 rebounds, 3.6 blocks, 3.1 assists, and 1.7 steals. He led the NBA in value over replacement player during that stretch and trailed only Michael Jordan in box plus/minus.

But in his age-31 season, the Admiral played in only six games before fracturing his left foot. San Antonio went 20-62 that season, landed the No. 1 pick in the lottery, drafted Tim Duncan and went on to dominate the league for two decades.

The 2020 draft class does not seem to feature a surefire star like Duncan (at least not that we know of right now). But some of the other similarities here are striking.

Curry is in his age-31 season. Over the seven seasons prior to this one (the number Robinson logged before San Antonio's tank job), Curry was fourth leaguewide in box plus/minus and fourth in value over replacement player.

An abundance of caution with Curry's recovery timeline could help the Warriors add a lottery talent for the twilight of his career. In turn, that could make this a one-season hiccup.

As currently constructed, Golden State's biggest needs are small forward and center. Deni Avdija, "one of the surest bets in the draft," according to Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman, could plug in at the 3. James Wiseman, who is "talent-wise ... a No. 1 overall candidate," might be the Warriors' center of the future. 

Trading Russell—or, dare we say, Green—could net Golden State more first-round picks. And it would potentially open up spots for any of the top three in Wasserman's latest mock draft: Cole Anthony, Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball.

There's no guarantee that any of those players will pop in the NBA. But picking outside of the lottery ever since 2012 has helped to prevent the Warriors from finding someone who can bridge the present and the future.

Curry's injury, as devastating as it feels in the moment, may be Golden State's opportunity to uncover that bridge.

And like Robinson before him, Curry should have enough gas left in the tank to help the incoming potential superstar (or stars, if the Warriors make some trades) thrive.

For years, this organization has proclaimed itself as "light-years ahead" of the competition. The last few months have damaged the hyperdrive, but another jump may soon be on the way.