World Series 2019: Series Preview and Game-by-Game Predictions
The 2019 World Series begins Tuesday night at Minute Maid Park as the Houston Astros welcome the Washington Nationals to town to kick off this best-of-seven series.
The Astros have home-field advantage after leading the majors with a franchise-record 107 wins. They knocked off the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees to reach the Fall Classic, and they are searching for their second title in three years.
As for the Nationals, they rallied from a 19-31 start to win 93 games and claim a wild-card berth. After besting the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card Game and knocking off the heavily favored Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS, they swept the St. Louis Cardinals in dominant fashion in the NLCS to clinch their first World Series appearance in franchise history.
Before the series gets underway, we have put together a quick preview of each team's lineup, starting rotation and a few X-factors to watch before making game-by-game predictions for how things will play out.
Projected Lineups
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Projected Nationals Lineup
- SS Trea Turner
- RF Adam Eaton
- 3B Anthony Rendon
- LF Juan Soto
- 2B Howie Kendrick
- 1B Ryan Zimmerman
- C Kurt Suzuki/Yan Gomes
- CF Victor Robles/Michael A. Taylor
The Nationals finished second in the National League and sixth in both runs per game (5.39) and team OPS (.796), and they did that despite finishing in the middle of the pack in home runs (231, 13th).
Anthony Rendon (1.010 OPS, 34 HR, 126 RBI) and Juan Soto (.949 OPS, 34 HR, 110 RBI) were the heavy hitters in the middle of the lineup, while veteran Howie Kendrick (334 PA, .344 BA, .966 OPS) was quietly one of baseball's most productive hitters in a semi-regular role.
If the speedy tandem of Trea Turner (.353 OBP, 35 SB, 96 R) and Adam Eaton (.365 OBP, 15 SB, 103 R) can set the table at the top, this lineup is capable of putting some crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
Projected Astros Lineup
- CF George Springer
- 2B Jose Altuve
- LF Michael Brantley
- 3B Alex Bregman
- 1B Yuli Gurriel
- SS Carlos Correa
- DH Yordan Alvarez
- C Robinson Chirinos/Martin Maldonado
- RF Josh Reddick
The Astros again boasted one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball, leading the majors in OPS (.848) while finishing third in runs per game (5.68) and home runs (288).
Alex Bregman (1.015 OPS, 41 HR, 112 RBI) put together an MVP-caliber season, and he was one of 10 players on the roster with double-digit home runs, joining George Springer (39), Jose Altuve (31), Yuli Gurriel (31), Yordan Alvarez (27), Michael Brantley (22), Carlos Correa (21), Robinson Chirinos (17), Josh Reddick (14) and Jake Marisnick (10).
This group just seems to have a flair for the dramatics, with Correa and Altuve both delivering walk-off home runs in the ALCS.
Projected Rotations
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Projected Nationals Rotation
- RHP Max Scherzer
- RHP Stephen Strasburg
- LHP Patrick Corbin
- RHP Anibal Sanchez
The one-two punch of Max Scherzer (27 GS, 2.92 ERA, 243 K, 172.1 IP) and Stephen Strasburg (33 GS, 3.32 ERA, 251 K, 209 IP) has been among baseball's best for the past several years, and 2019 was no exception.
They were joined by Patrick Corbin (33 GS, 3.25 ERA, 238 K, 202 IP) this season after he signed a six-year, $140 million deal as the top starting pitcher on the free-agent market, and he's provided a third head to the monster.
The unsung hero has been 35-year-old Anibal Sanchez (30 GS, 3.85 ERA, 134 K, 166 IP), who was also an offseason addition on a modest two-year, $19 million deal. He's provided welcome stability to the No. 4 starter spot and has thrown the ball extremely well this October.
Projected Astros Rotation
- RHP Gerrit Cole
- RHP Justin Verlander
- RHP Zack Greinke
- RHP Jose Urquidy/Bullpen game
Simply put, there wasn't a better starting pitching tandem in 2019 than Gerrit Cole (33 GS, 2.50 ERA, 326 K, 212.1 IP) and Justin Verlander (34 GS, 2.58 ERA, 300 K, 223 IP), and it remains to be seen who will walk away with AL Cy Young honors.
A midseason trade added another Cy Young-caliber arm to the mix when Zack Greinke (33 GS, 2.93 ERA, 187 K, 208.2 IP) was acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he will give the team a contingency plan when Cole likely departs in free agency.
The Astros went the bullpen game route in Game 6 of the ALCS, with Brad Peacock, Josh James and Jose Urquidy seeing action and capable of working multiple innings. After striking out five in 2.2 strong innings, Urquidy might have earned a legitimate start in Game 4, albeit one that likely comes with a short leash.
Biggest X-Factors
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Nationals: Juan Soto
One of baseball's most dynamic offensive performers during the regular season, Juan Soto hit a pair of home runs in the NLDS before going ice cold in the NLCS matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals.
Granted, it was just a quick four-game sweep, but he finished 3-for-16 with one RBI and seven strikeouts and was essentially a non-factor.
That will have to change if the Nationals are going to upend the Astros, as he will be counted on to produce out of the No. 4 spot in the batting order.
Some extra work in the cage, which was highlighted by Sam Fortier of the Washington Post, could be the key to a bounce-back performance for the 20-year-old phenom in the World Series.
Astros: Jose Urquidy
We've already touched on the strong work Jose Urquidy turned in during a 2.2-inning appearance in Game 6 of the ALCS, and that's not the first time he's turned heads this season.
The 24-year-old made his MLB debut in July and made five starts before returning to the minors. He then returned in September and tossed a pair of eye-opening starts, dominating the Oakland Athletics (5.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 10 K) and Los Angeles Angels (6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 K). All told, he posted a 3.95 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 40 strikeouts in 41 innings.
He was given a vote of confidence by general manager Jeff Luhnow, who told reporters in late September that he will likely be part of the 2020 rotation, and that he could get some big outs in October.
To that point, he'll almost certainly factor into the Game 4 plans in some capacity, whether it's as a traditional starter or a bulk reliever. He could be the key to that pivotal game.
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Game 1: Gerrit Cole Keeps Rolling
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Can anyone stop Gerrit Cole?
The free-agent-to-be has not suffered a loss since May 22, going 16-0 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over his final 22 starts while racking up double-digit strikeouts 16 times.
It's been more of the same since the calendar flipped to October and the postseason began.
He struck out a franchise-record 15 batters in Game 2 of the ALDS, and he's gone 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 32 strikeouts in 22.2 innings over three starts during the playoffs.
Runs will be at a premium with Max Scherzer toeing the rubber opposite him in Game 1 of the World Series, but we'll say the Astros do just enough to support their red-hot ace in another dominant performance.
Score Prediction: Astros 2, Nationals 0
Game 2: Nationals Offense Evens the Series
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After a brilliant regular season, Justin Verlander has been hit or miss this postseason.
The 36-year-old was brilliant in Game 1 of the ALDS, allowing just one hit over seven scoreless innings, but he's posted a 5.19 ERA in three starts since, including getting chased after 3.2 innings Game 4 of the ALDS.
The Nationals scored double-digit runs 20 different times during the regular season, so they're more than capable of stringing together hits and putting a big number on the scoreboard.
Keep an eye on veteran Asdrubal Cabrera in this one.
The 33-year-old has seen more of Verlander than anyone else on the Nationals roster and enjoyed some solid success along the way, going 21-for-76 (.276 BA) with three home runs, albeit with 30 strikeouts as well.
Score Prediction: Nationals 8, Astros 3
Game 3: Astros Take Series Lead in Extra Innings
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During Game 3 of the 2018 World Series, we witnessed an 18-inning marathon.
The 2017 World Series saw Game 2 and Game 5, which were both won by the Houston Astros, go to extra innings.
When the Chicago Cubs finally hoisted a World Series trophy for the first time in more than a century in 2016, it took 10 innings in Game 7 to walk away with a victory.
Not since the 2014 World Series has there been a Fall Classic that didn't feature at least one extra-inning game, so it's reasonable to assume we could see some bonus baseball this year as well.
Presumptive Game 3 starters Zack Greinke (14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA) and Patrick Corbin (13.1 IP, 7.43 ERA) have both been hit-or-miss this postseason, so a Game 3 where both starters are chased early could lead to an extra-inning contest.
Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve have already had their signature moments this postseason with game-winning home runs. Maybe it's MVP candidate Alex Bregman's turn?
Score Prediction: Astros 9, Nationals 7 (11 innings)
Game 4: Jose Urquidy Makes His Mark
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We've already talked about how rookie right-hander Jose Urquidy could be the X-factor for the Astros in this series.
Whether he gets the start in Game 4 or serves as a bulk reliever following someone like Brad Peacock or Josh James, expect him to be the difference maker.
If the Astros can chase veteran Anibal Sanchez early and get into the shaky middle-relief contingent of the Nationals, they could provide some welcome run support to their own stable of relievers.
We'll say Urquidy gets the start and tosses five strong innings, departing with a 4-2 lead before Joe Smith, Will Harris, Ryan Pressly and Roberto Osuna each toss a scoreless inning of relief to slam the door.
Score Prediction: Astros 7, Nationals 2
Game 5: Nationals Prevail in Pitchers' Duel
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As dominant as Gerrit Cole has been for the past several months, it's still hard to bet against Max Scherzer with his back against the wall.
The last time he took the ball, he allowed just one hit while striking out 11 over seven innings in Game 3 of the NLCS. In 102 career postseason innings, he has a 3.35 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 127 strikeouts.
In other words, if he gets out-dueled by Cole in Game 1 of the World Series, expect him to get his revenge in Game 5.
That's not to say there's any reason to expect Cole to be anything short of dominant again himself, so this one could be a true pitchers' duel.
Expect both starters to go at least seven innings, with the Nationals finding just enough offense to stay alive in the series and force a Game 6.
Score Prediction: Nationals 1, Astros 0
Game 6: Justin Verlander Bounces Back, Astros Win Series
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Just as we predicted with Max Scherzer in Game 5, it would be unwise to bet against Justin Verlander bouncing back if he does in fact get hit hard in Game 2 as we've predicted here.
With the series shifting back to Houston and Verlander pitching on a full five days rest, he'll be on top of his game with a chance to close out the series in front of the home fans.
He was on the mound for Game 6 of the 2017 World Series with a chance to close things out and wound up taking the hard-luck loss, allowing three hits and two earned runs in six innings in a 3-1 victory by the Los Angeles Dodgers.
This time around, he'll get the job done and be the pitcher of record in the deciding game.
Score Prediction: Astros 5, Nationals 2
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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