College Football Picks Week 9: Vegas Odds and Predictions for Top 25 Games
Wisconsin's trip to Ohio State is no longer a Top 10 clash, but it still carries plenty of meaning in the Big Ten and College Football Playoff races.
After suffering an upset loss to Illinois, the Badgers tumbled out of the sport's upper echelon. However, it could move right back in with a victory as a double-digit underdog.
Saturday's contest also has Heisman Trophy implications, with Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor facing Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields. Whoever shines brightest could earn an advantage over his rival.
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In the SEC, Auburn and LSU face off in a divisional clash that serves as the last major hurdle ahead of a possible No. 1-versus-No. 2 clash between LSU and Alabama.
Auburn could still land in the playoff discussion, but it has to win its remaining SEC clashes, starting with the trip to Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
Week 9 Schedule and Odds
All Times ET.
Odds from Vegas Insider; predictions against the spread in bold.
Thursday, October 24
No. 16 SMU (-13.5) at Houston (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Saturday, October 26
No. 13 Wisconsin at No. 3 Ohio State (-14) (Noon, Fox)
No. 5 Oklahoma (-22) at Kansas State (Noon, ABC)
No. 20 Iowa (-11) at Northwestern (Noon, ESPN2)
No. 21 Appalachian State (-25.5) at South Alabama (Noon, ESPNU)
No. 9 Auburn at No. 2 LSU (-11) (3:30 p.m., CBS)
No. 6 Penn State (-5.5) at Michigan State (3:30 p.m., ABC)
No. 15 Texas (-1.5) at TCU (3:30 p.m., Fox)
Maryland at No. 17 Minnesota (-15) (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Oklahoma State at No. 23 Iowa State (-8.5) (3:30 p.m., FS1)
Arkansas at No. 1 Alabama (-33) (7 p.m., ESPN)
Boston College at No. 4 Clemson (-36.5) (7:30 p.m., ACC Network)
No. 8 Notre Dame at No. 19 Michigan (-2.5) (7:30 p.m., ABC)
No. 24 Arizona State (-2.5) at UCLA (7:30 p.m., Pac-12 Network)
California at No. 12 Utah (-17.5) (10 p.m., FS1)
Washington State at No. 11 Oregon (-14) (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
No. 13 Wisconsin (+14) at No. 3 Ohio State
Wisconsin has not lost back-to-back games since October 2016, when it fell to Michigan and Ohio State.
The Badgers lost their last two meetings with the Buckeyes, but the 2016 regular-season clash and 2017 Big Ten Championship Game were both decided by one score.
To remain competitive at Ohio Stadium, Wisconsin's offensive line has to neutralize Chase Young's threat. The potential top-five pick in the 2020 NFL draft has 23 tackles, 9.5 sacks and a forced fumble.
If Paul Chryst's team handles the defensive end, it could push the ball down the field through Taylor.
The junior tailback is 33 yards away from 1,000 and has 19 total touchdowns, 15 on the ground and four through the air. The 20-year-old's season high occurred versus Michigan, but the Wolverines are a few tiers down from Ohio State in 2019.
The Buckeyes possess the ninth-best rushing defense and allowed opponents to score twice on the ground, but they might not be the most dominant run-stoppers Saturday, as Wisconsin enters with the top-ranked rushing defense.
The Badgers have held opponents to 58.4 yards per game, 2.2 yards per carry, two scores and forced 12 fumbles.
Linebackers Jack Sanborn, Chris Orr and Zack Baun, who have 18 combined sacks, will be key to containing Justin Fields and J.K. Dobbins. If they do that, Fields may end up in a few long-yardage situations on third and fourth downs that lead to punts.
At some point, Ohio State could overwhelm Wisconsin through its deep receiving corps led by Chris Olave, Binjimen Victor and K.J. Hill.
A few long gains could open up Wisconsin's defense, but without a consistent running game, the third-ranked team will not pull away until late.
A loss for Wisconsin means it would have to win out in the Big Ten West with triumphs over Iowa and Minnesota to earn a possible rematch with the Buckeyes in Indianapolis.
An Ohio State win puts it in better position to earn a top spot in the first College Football Playoff rankings, but it has to still beat Penn State and Michigan to land in the Big Ten Championship Game.
No. 9 Auburn at No. 2 LSU (-11)
LSU could open up a two-game gap between itself and Auburn with a victory at Tiger Stadium. Ed Orgeron's side should be able to achieve that with the continued progression of its high-powered offense.
Joe Burrow is 400 yards away from eclipsing the total he earned a year ago, and he already has 13 more touchdown passes than his first season with the Tigers.
LSU ranks third in the FBS in total offense behind Oklahoma and UCF with 539.9 yards and 50.1 points per game.
Auburn enters the SEC West showdown with 433.1 yards and 36.3 points per contest. Those are respectable numbers, but they pale in comparison to LSU.
As it did against Texas and Florida, LSU could overpower Auburn and its defense could come up with one or two big plays to open up a double-digit advantage.
LSU's average margin of victory in Baton Rouge is 38.25 points, and all but one of its seven victories have been by double digits.
In three of its four matchups against unranked teams, Gus Malzahn's Auburn squad eclipsed 50 points, but its production dropped in three Top 25 battles.
Bo Nix did not hit the 200-yard mark versus Texas A&M, Oregon or Florida, and if he puts up similar numbers, the visiting Tigers could lose by a few scores.
Auburn could cause some difficulties with Derrick Brown menacing LSU's offensive line, but even Florida's strong defense struggled with the system on the road.
Unless Nix bucks his first-season trend and explodes for over 300 passing yards, it is hard to see Auburn keeping up with LSU for four quarters.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
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