B/R Experts Answer Biggest CFB Questions for Week 6
Both Alabama and Clemson are idle in Week 6, so there can't be that much college football chaos on Saturday. But AP No. 3 Georgia has to go on the road for a conference game, No. 4 Ohio State is hosting another ranked team (No. 25 Michigan State) and No. 7 Auburn will battle No. 10 Florida in an SEC showdown bound to shake things up at least a little bit.
But we're long overdue for some colossal upsets, aren't we? Plenty of teams in the back half of the AP Top 25 have fallen to unranked opponents, but it's hard to believe we've made it into October with No. 10 Utah's Week 4 loss to USC serving as the most noteworthy upset of the season.
The good news is that Week 6 is traditionally when things start to go off the rails. In each of the past five seasons, there has been at least one instance of an unranked team beating an AP Top 10 team in Week 6.
Who is at risk this week?
To help you figure out what to expect, Bleacher Report's college football experts—David Kenyon, Kerry Miller, Brad Shepard and Ian Wharton—joined forces to offer predictions on the hottest burning questions, such as:
- Which team will improve to 6-0: Auburn or Florida?
- Will any unranked teams pull off a stunner?
- Does Jim Harbaugh come one step closer to getting a pink slip?
- And will Jonathan Taylor or Chuba Hubbard be the more unstoppable force this week?
Our experts are on the case.
No. 7 Auburn at No. 10 Florida: Who You Got?
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David Kenyon
While my gut has no effect on the outcome, I feel similarly about Auburn's trip to Florida as I did with LSU's trip there last season—which ended up as a win for the Gators. Auburn has an improving offense, but I'm not quite sold on its ability to handle this road environment. Plus, the Gators get Jabari Zuniga and CJ Henderson back from injury this week. So, I'm taking the Gators, even though my head says otherwise.
Kerry Miller
I'm going to do you a favor, Auburn fans. I picked the Tigers to lose to Oregon. I picked the Tigers to lose to Texas A&M. And I'm going to keep your undefeated season intact by picking the Tigers to lose to Florida. Bo Nix and Co. put on quite the show in last week's dismantling of Mississippi State, but Florida might have the best defense in the SEC. It's hard to make that argument at the moment because of the weakness of the schedule thus far, but the Gators are going to make a major "Time to start taking us seriously" statement in a 23-17 victory at home.
Brad Shepard
Nobody wants a part of the Auburn Tigers right now, and Gus Malzahn is pushing all the right buttons. Florida is winning with smoke and mirrors and hasn't faced anyone of any consequence yet. The Gators will finally face their first quality foe this week, and they'll lose by two scores.
Ian Wharton
Florida hasn't played as difficult of a schedule to this point, but I like that they're getting several key players back from injury for this showdown. Auburn would be my pick on a neutral site, but I think this is where having a freshman quarterback on the road against a run-stuffing defense puts too much pressure on the Tigers. Give me Florida in a close one.
Does No. 14 Iowa Pick Up a Big Road Win over No. 19 Michigan?
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David Kenyon
Iowa wins, yes. Michigan is relatively thin on the defensive interior, and Iowa has a pair of offensive tackles in Alaric Jackson and Tristan Wirfs who are capable of containing the Wolverines' talent on the edges. More importantly, though, the Hawkeyes have a terrific defense and can regularly force Michigan into passing situations. From what Shea Patterson has displayed thus far in 2019, Michigan isn't ready to win that way.
Kerry Miller
Much like Florida, Iowa is holding opponents below nine points per game, doing so against a schedule riddled with cream puffs. Unlike Florida, Iowa's first big test is a road game against a Michigan squad whose head coach is on arguably the hottest seat in the nation. Jim Harbaugh still owes Kirk Ferentz some payback for that 14-13 upset in 2016, too. My head says Hawkeyes, but my gut says Wolverines. Better go with the gut. Iowa's lack of backfield penetration (five sacks in four games) will enable Patterson to get into a rhythm.
Brad Shepard
If you're confused about who Michigan really is, join the club. We know Iowa every year, though. The Hawkeyes are a rough-and-tumble, defensive-minded institution. If that sounds familiar, it's the same kind of program that Wisconsin has had for a long time, and the Badgers handled the Wolverines easily two weeks ago. Iowa isn't quite that good, but it is good enough to grind out a close win in Ann Arbor, furthering the questions about Harbaugh.
Ian Wharton
Iowa wins. Neither of these teams have shown much this year, but Iowa is less to blame for that than Michigan. At least the Hawkeyes have blown out the teams they should, and they picked up the tough win at Iowa State. Michigan shouldn't even be ranked based on what we've seen this year.
Will Ohio State Finally Need to Put Forth Some Effort in the 4th Quarter?
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David Kenyon
Minimal effort, but yes. Michigan State had better figure out its issues in the secondary quickly. Otherwise, Justin Fields and the Buckeyes offense will put the Spartans in a sizable hole in a hurry. If that happens, the Chase Young-led defense will overwhelm the Spartans offensive line and thwart any chances of a comeback. Michigan State desperately needs to contain Fields as a passer to keep this interesting.
Kerry Miller
Michigan State almost messed around and lost a home game against Indiana last weekend, so I'm not exactly buying whatever it is the Spartans are selling. They have a solid defense, but so does Cincinnati, which Ohio State mercilessly flogged 42-0 back in Week 2. The Spartans will offer more resistance on defense than the Buckeyes have faced so far this season, but they won't be able to put together much of anything against Ohio State's defense. The Buckeyes cruise to a 35-7 victory and don't even bother to attempt a pass in the fourth quarter.
Brad Shepard
Nah. Michigan State does have a strong defense, but the Spartans don't have the skill-position players to ultimately defeat the Buckeyes. Brian Lewerke won't be able to hang against a fast, talented defensive front seven that is going to bring the heat much of the day. This will be the closest game Ohio State has played to date, but that isn't saying much. Buckeyes win 33-10.
Ian Wharton
Some effort required, but not much. This Ohio State team is fantastic on both sides of the ball, and the difference on defense compared to last year is especially impressive. The Spartans will try to shorten this game and will slow Fields a bit, but the Buckeyes will win comfortably enough to avoid sweating too much late in the game.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
More Rushing Yards: Jonathan Taylor vs. Kent State or Chuba Hubbard at T. Tech?
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David Kenyon
Texas Tech should actually compete with Oklahoma State, so I'll lean toward Hubbard. Wisconsin will have no issue dispatching Kent State, and Taylor just handled a season-high 26 carries last weekend against Northwestern. Yes, he's capable of shouldering a much heavier load, but the Badgers' focus should be on keeping him healthy for next week's showdown with Michigan State.
Kerry Miller
Before I answer, let's have a preemptive moment of silence for both of these defenses. Texas Tech has allowed more than 500 rushing yards and seven touchdowns over its last two games (Arizona and Oklahoma) while Kent State gave up nearly that much in its game against Auburn (467 yards and six touchdowns). Both of these beatdowns will be biblical.
I'll go with Hubbard, though, because he is chunk-gaining (yeah, we'll call that a verb) on par with 2017 Bryce Love. Hubbard already has 11 rushes of 20 or more yards, four of which went for at least 50. He rips off a pair of huge ones and edges Taylor by a 245-207 type of margin.
Brad Shepard
I love Hubbard. Taylor is the best running back in college football, but Hubbard is the second-best. He's going to keep putting up huge numbers and will be an exceptional NFL back in the not-too-distant future. I also think the Badgers need to work on their passing game, and this game against the Golden Flashes is the perfect opportunity to do so. Oklahoma State will have its starters in for longer, so I'll go with Hubbard.
Ian Wharton
Both will have mammoth performances, but Trey Sermon's 10.9 yards per carry against Texas Tech last week leads me to go with Hubbard. Taylor is the best back in the nation and will hit 200 yards with ease before the Badgers pull him out, but Hubbard might play the full game. That's a key advantage in this competition.
More Total Yards: Joe Burrow vs. Utah State or Jalen Hurts at Kansas?
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David Kenyon
Similar to the previous question, my choice is based strictly on how long each star will need to play. Oklahoma is going to roll Kansas, while Utah State might at least hang around thanks to quarterback Jordan Love. Hurts will have another 350-yard day, but Burrow is likely to reach 400 again.
Kerry Miller
One week ago, I probably would've gone with Burrow, because Kansas was semi-respectable on defense through its first four games. But after TCU shredded the Jayhawks for 625 yards and 51 points in Week 5, it's clear that Hurts is the pick here. Burrow is still going to have a big day against a Utah State defense that allowed Wake Forest's Jamie Newman to put on a clinic in Week 1, but Hurts will have the edge due to his superior rushing prowess. Both guys eclipse 350 total yards in blowout wins, but Hurts could go for 500 if Kansas can stay within shouting distance into the third quarter.
Brad Shepard
It's still hard to believe the Tigers have a legitimate passing game for a change, but thanks to Burrow, they do. However, LSU needs to establish the run a bit more before entering the meat of SEC play, so look for the backs to get heavy usage in a laugher. Burrow will still get his, but Hurts is going to boat-race the Jayhawks. It's going to be even uglier than what TCU did to Kansas last week. Les Miles has a good thing brewing in Lawrence, but the Jayhawks aren't ready for Hurts.
Ian Wharton
Burrow will be more motivated to post a ridiculous line since he'll be facing a potential first-round pick in Love. That means LSU will keep the pressure on Utah State to prop up its own Heisman hopeful and rising NFL prospect. Hurts should be done for the day by the end of the third quarter, which gives Burrow the advantage here.
Will Any Ranked Team Lose to an Unranked Team in Week 6?
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David Kenyon
No. In fairness to my unadventurous answer, seven AP Top 25 (26 this week, actually) teams are idle, and five of those seven are ranked 17th or lower—aka the range that is more likely to lose games in any given week. UCF's trip to Cincinnati is probably the trickiest game, especially now that California quarterback Chase Garbers is sidelined for the Golden Bears' game against Oregon. The Ducks may struggle with that defense, but they won't give up many points, either. Someone please prove me wrong and provide some chaos, though.
Kerry Miller
Normally, the answer to this question is a resounding yes. It's just a matter of figuring out where the upset(s) will happen. But unless No. 18 UCF loses at Cincinnati on Friday night, it's not going to happen this weekend—and I don't see UCF blowing that one. Maybe 3-1 West Virginia makes things interesting at home against No. 11 Texas, but the Mountaineers aren't going to get that win, either.
Brad Shepard
The only game I could see being an upset is UCF at Cincinnati. But it's no fun to say "none" here, so I'll roll with Luke Fickell's team pulling the upset against Central Florida. The Bearcats are good, and don't let the 42-0 drubbing by Ohio State skew those feelings. That defense could make things difficult on the Knights.
Ian Wharton
No. I think Cal has the best shot of pulling off an upset because it will pressure Justin Herbert through the middle of the line better than most teams can. However, the Golden Bears offense isn't good enough to get the job done. We'll see a lot of chalk in the ranked games.
Over/Under 94.5 Points in Highest-Scoring Game of the Week (and Which Game)?
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David Kenyon
Under, but with a nod to Texas and West Virginia as a Big 12 battle that could have fireworks. The Mountaineers aren't a great offensive team, but Texas might be peeking ahead to Week 7 and Oklahoma. If so, the Longhorns could give up a few early touchdowns, need to run up the score and then surrender a couple of garbage-time scores. Memphis and UL Monroe could get funky, too, and I'm here for that.
Kerry Miller
It's a close call between Oregon State-UCLA and Utah State-LSU, but I'll take the Pac-12 game and the over. Oregon State has scored at least 28 points in each game this season, but its defense is a dumpster fire. The atrocious defense also applies to UCLA, and we already witnessed two weeks ago what the Bruins can do in a game where neither team plays D. Three games hit at least 90 points last weekend, and three games went over 100 in Week 4. It's probably going to happen somewhere, even if I'm wrong about which game turns into the hottest barn burner.
Brad Shepard
Under. There just aren't a lot of electrifying showdowns this weekend, but the highest-scoring game will be Utah State at LSU. The Tigers will be able to do anything they want against the Aggies. Though USU can't hang with its SEC foe, it does have Jordan Love at quarterback, and he'll be good for at least 27 points. I think this game will wind up being 62-27.
Ian Wharton
Under, and the highest-scoring game will be a surprise: Western Michigan at Toledo. Both MAC teams have quality offenses and struggle shutting down opponents. Plus, the MAC tends to get wild as the weather starts to cool down. We may see this game near 85 total, but it won't hit 95.
There Are 3 Unranked, Undefeated Teams in Action. How Many Win?
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David Kenyon
All three will improve to 5-0. Memphis (at Louisiana-Monroe) and Minnesota (vs. Illinois) don't concern me much in their respective matchups. That's different for Baylor, which is a slight underdog at Kansas State. Still, I think the Bears have greater offensive upside and leave Manhattan with a three-point win.
Kerry Miller
Not only will all three win, but I suspect they'll each do so by a double-digit margin. Memphis is going to run circles around Louisiana-Monroe's poor excuse for a defense. Minnesota will do the same against an Illinois squad which lost to Eastern Michigan and allowed nearly 700 yards against Nebraska. And Baylor should get its ground game going in a big way against Kansas State. The Big 12 game will at least stay interesting into the second half, but the Bears eventually pull away for a 35-24 victory.
Brad Shepard
All three are going to win. Memphis is on the cusp of being ranked. The Tigers will win again this weekend and perhaps sneak into the tail end of the next poll. Baylor has the toughest test against Kansas State, but Matt Rhule's team has more playmakers than KSU does, so I like the Bears getting it done there, too. Meanwhile, the Golden Gophers are going to row the boat easily against the Illini.
Ian Wharton
Baylor and Memphis will pull out wins this week, but Minnesota finally loses after a string of close battles. Lovie Smith's gray beard will give the Illini the confidence and discipline needed to win a tough road game. OK, so maybe that isn't why they'll win, but I do think Illinois has the talent to bother Minnesota and win a one-score game.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
