College Football Odds Week 6: Picks, Spread Predictions for Top 25 Games
Some of the top college football programs could create separation in the standings in Week 6.
Auburn and Florida both have an opportunity to solidify their status among the top four teams in the SEC alongside Alabama, Georgia and LSU.
The Tigers could rack up its third victory over a Top 25 team, while a triumph for the Gators would set up a colossal clash with Georgia for the top spot in the SEC East.
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Ohio State can gain a one-game advantage on Michigan State in the Big Ten East, and it might get some help from Iowa at Michigan Stadium.
The Hawkeyes need to keep pace with Wisconsin in the Big Ten West. A win over Michigan would push them further on to the national radar and further sink the Wolverines.
Week 6 Schedule and Odds
All Times ET
Odds from Caesars; predictions against the spread in bold
Friday, October 4
No. 18 UCF (-4) at Cincinnati (8 p.m., ESPN)
Saturday, October 5
Utah State at No. 5 LSU (-27.5) (Noon, SEC Network)
No. 6 Oklahoma (-32) at Kansas (Noon, ABC)
Kent State at No. 8 Wisconsin (-36) (Noon, ESPNU)
Purdue at No. 12 Penn State (-28) (Noon, ESPN)
No. 14 Iowa at No. 19 Michigan (-3.5) (Noon, Fox)
No. 21 Oklahoma State (-10) at Texas Tech (Noon, FS1)
No. 7 Auburn (-3) at No. 10 Florida (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Bowling Green at No. 9 Notre Dame (-45.5) (3:30 p.m., NBC)
No. 11 Texas (-10.5) at West Virginia (3:30 p.m., ABC)
No. 3 Georgia (-25) at Tennessee (7 p.m., ESPN)
No. 25 Michigan State at No. 4 Ohio State (-20) (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Tulsa at No. 24 SMU (-13) (7:30 p.m., ESPNU)
California at No. 13 Oregon (-18) (8 p.m., Fox)
No. 15 Washington (-16.5) at Stanford (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
No. 16 Boise State (-22) at UNLV (10:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
Predictions
Auburn (-3) at Florida
Auburn's offense and Florida's defense have been two of the better units in the SEC.
In the win over Texas A&M, the Tigers used a balanced approach, as Bo Nix threw for only 100 yards while the rushing attack led by JaTarvious Whitlow totaled 193 yards.
A week ago, the totals increased to 361 passing and 217 rushing in a rout of Mississippi State that featured 42 first-half points.
If the seventh-ranked side produces the same offensive efficiency, the Gators could be in for a long afternoon in "The Swamp."
The Gators rank fifth in points conceded per game and 16th in rushing yards allowed per game, but their list of opponents is far from impressive.
In the last two weeks, Dan Mullen's team has outscored Towson and Tennessee 82-3. Auburn is the first of three ranked foes Florida faces in conference action.
The visitors could create scoreboard separation through their pass rush. Tyrone Truesdell, Marlon Davidson and Derrick Brown have two sacks or more.
Brown was a menace versus Texas A&M, and if he applies the same pressure to Kyle Trask, the SEC West side could secure its third quality win.
Auburn defeated Oregon and Texas A&M by a combined 14 points, and with Saturday's spread so small, there is a good chance it will cover if it comes out on top. Its average margin of victory is 20.8 points.
Iowa (+3.5) at Michigan
It is hard to put any betting faith in Michigan after it faltered against Wisconsin.
Sure, a home thumping of Rutgers was good for its confidence, but that proved nothing about how it will perform against Top-25 opponents.
In the last three years, Jim Harbaugh's team suffered five losses to ranked foes by 10 or more points. The only defeat under that threshold came in Week 1 of 2018 to Notre Dame.
If Iowa follows a similar defensive game plan as Wisconsin, it could storm out of Michigan Stadium with its unblemished record in tact.
The Hawkeyes are giving up 77.7 rushing yards per game with zero touchdowns. If they slow down Michigan's running backs, they could force Shea Patterson to win the game, which is what every Big Ten defense should try to do.
Michigan's senior signal-caller struggled to find a rhythm at Camp Randall Stadium, as he went 14-of-32 for 219 yards, the majority of which were earned in the second half when the game was already over.
Even when the Wolverines defeated ranked opposition in 2018, Patterson's numbers were far from impressive. He averaged 178.8 passing yards versus a quintet of Top 25 foes in his junior campaign.
In fact, he has not had a single 300-yard performance in maize and blue, and he has not had much support on the ground in 2019, with Michigan ranking 94th in rushing yards per game.
It's hard to see Michigan fixing its offensive issues in big games in four quarters, so we are going with the more reliable defense.
An Iowa victory keeps it on track with Wisconsin in the Big Ten West, and it lines up a massive clash with Penn State at home in Week 7.
Michigan State at Ohio State (-20)
Ohio State produces the opposite emotions to its top rival when you watch its offense.
Justin Fields is looking like a Heisman Trophy contender, and he has a plethora of weapons around him that could finish Michigan State by halftime.
Ryan Day's team outscored its first five opponents 262-43 and enjoyed a 41-point thumping of Nebraska last time out.
Michigan State carries an aggregate score of 150-65 in its four wins, but it is coming off the concession of 31 points to Indiana in a contest it barely won.
Mark Dantonio's squad boasts the seventh-best yards conceded per game with 254, but that can't be seen as an advantage Saturday since the Buckeyes rank second in that category.
Ohio State's defense has a Top 15 mark in passing yards, rushing yards and points per game, and Saturday marks another chance for the Chase Young-led unit to shine.
Young and fellow potential first-round pick Jeffrey Okudah have been overshadowed a bit by the massive numbers put up by Fields, J.K. Dobbins, K.J. Hill and Co., but they deserve credit for the performances they have put in.
Thirteen Buckeyes have recorded a sack and five others have an interception. If that defensive form carries over into its second Big Ten East game, Ohio State could land another victory over 20 points.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
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