College Football Picks Week 6: Top 25 Rankings, Schedule, Odds and Predictions
The top game on the Week 6 college football schedule is expected to be the closest one involving a ranked team.
No. 7 Auburn opened as a three-point favorite for its visit to No. 10 Florida. That is different from two weeks ago, when the Tigers were viewed as an underdog by the oddsmakers for their trip to Texas A&M.
The opening line for the SEC clash is one of four single-digit spreads for games involving Top 25 squads.
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One of the two other ranked matchups is predicted to be more of a one-sided affair, as No. 4 Ohio State tries to extend its terrific start.
The Buckeyes return home Saturday for a Big Ten East showdown with No. 25 Michigan State, who squeezed out a win over Indiana in Week 5.
Until we are proved wrong, the Buckeyes should be a two-to-three-score favorite because of how dominant they have looked.
AP Top 25
1. Alabama (5-0)
2. Clemson (5-0)
3. Georgia (4-0)
4. Ohio State (5-0)
5. LSU (4-0)
6. Oklahoma (4-0)
7. Auburn (5-0)
8. Wisconsin (4-0)
9. Notre Dame (3-1)
10. Florida (5-0)
11. Texas (3-1)
12. Penn State (4-0)
13. Oregon (3-1)
14. Iowa (4-0)
15. Washington (4-1)
16. Boise State (4-0)
17. Utah (4-1)
18. UCF (4-1)
19. Michigan (3-1)
20. Arizona State (4-1)
21. Oklahoma State (4-1)
22. Wake Forest (5-0)
23. Virginia (4-1)
24. SMU (5-0)
25. Texas A&M (3-2)
Week 6 Schedule and Odds
All Times ET
Odds from Vegas Insider; predictions against the spread in bold
Friday, October 4
No. 18 UCF (-4) at Cincinnati (8 p.m., ESPN)
Saturday, October 5
Utah State at No. 5 LSU (-24) (Noon, SEC Network)
No. 6 Oklahoma (-35) at Kansas (Noon, ABC)
Kent State at No. 8 Wisconsin (-36) (Noon, ESPNU)
Purdue at No. 12 Penn State (-25.5) (Noon, ESPN)
No. 14 Iowa at No. 19 Michigan (-5.5) (Noon, Fox)
No. 21 Oklahoma State (-8.5) at Texas Tech (Noon, FS1)
No. 7 Auburn (-3) at No. 10 Florida (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Bowling Green at No. 9 Notre Dame (-45) (3:30 p.m., NBC)
No. 11 Texas (-10) at West Virginia (3:30 p.m., ABC)
No. 3 Georgia (-24) at Tennessee (7 p.m., ESPN)
No. 25 Michigan State at No. 4 Ohio State (-20) (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Tulsa at No. 24 SMU (-13) (7:30 p.m., ESPNU)
California at No. 13 Oregon (-17.5) (8 p.m., Fox)
No. 15 Washington (-14) at Stanford (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
No. 16 Boise State (-21.5) at UNLV (10:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
Predictions
No. 7 Auburn (-3) at No. 10 Florida
All four of Auburn's victories over ranked foes in the last two years have been decided by one possession.
The season-opening game versus Oregon was won late in the fourth quarter, while Texas A&M rallied with 17 points in the final stanza in an eight-point loss to Gus Malzahn's team.
Three of those four triumphs occurred away from Jordan-Hare Stadium, two of which were at neutral sites.
That suggests if Bo Nix and Co. leave Ben Hill Griffin Stadium with a win, it will be by a narrow margin.
Florida won in similar fashion over a pair of Top 25 SEC sides a year ago, when it defeated Mississippi State and LSU by a combined 15 points.
The exception to the trend was the Gators' Peach Bowl blowout of Michigan, a contest they won by 26.
There could be some concerns about Florida's home form, as it dropped results to Kentucky and Missouri in Dan Mullen's first season.
In three home games in 2019, the Gators have outscored teams 117-3, but two of those sides were FCS programs and the other was a struggling Tennessee.
Since Auburn has played the more difficult schedule to date, it is understandable to back it, especially after thriving at Kyle Field.
Nix, who is coming off a 335-yard showing, could be the difference-maker. In his first true road test, the freshman quarterback managed the game well with 138 total yards.
If he applies the experience from wins over Oregon and A&M with the increased numbers from Week 5, Nix could help the Tigers land their third victory over a ranked opponent.
No. 25 Michigan State at No. 4 Ohio State (-20)
A 20-point margin of victory may be too easy for Ohio State to attain.
An argument can be made that Ryan Day's side has looked like the best team in the nation, and it reinforced that with a 48-7 win at Nebraska.
The Buckeyes' second Big Ten road win caught the eye of pollsters, as they nabbed seven first-place votes in the AP Top 25.
The average score of Ohio State's first five games is 52-9, and it has held its last four opponents to 10 points or fewer.
Michigan State enters Ohio Stadium at 4-1, but it has had a few shaky performances in the last three weeks.
The Spartans were limited to a touchdown at home in a loss to Arizona State and struggled to put away Indiana.
On Saturday, they conceded 356 yards to an Indiana offense that recorded 257 in its defeat to Ohio State.
The problem facing Michigan State, and the rest of Ohio State's opponents, is the depth Justin Fields has to work with.
Nine players have a touchdown catch, with K.J. Hill and Chris Olave leading the group with four each.
If, by chance, the Spartans limit Fields' production, there is no guarantee they will contain J.K. Dobbins, who averages 7.1 yards per carry and has found the end zone six times.
Additionally, the Buckeyes have downed the Spartans by 20 or more in their last two meetings.
All of that leads us to believe Ohio State will roll once again and gain more momentum in the discussion as the country's best team.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90
Statistics obtained from ESPN.com
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