Ranking Heisman Contenders' Performances from Week 5 of College Football
With September done, the race for college football's 2019 Heisman Trophy seems to be down to Tua Tagovailoa and The Transfers.
Tagovailoa is now a -130 favorite ($130 bet wins $100), according to the latest odds from Caesars Casino, but "the field" still has a good chance at winning this thing. Jalen Hurts (Alabama to Oklahoma), Joe Burrow (Ohio State to LSU) and Justin Fields (Georgia to Ohio State) aren't that far behind Tua, and running backs Jonathan Taylor and Chuba Hubbard are doing their part to remain in the mix.
Who was most impressive in Week 5, though?
These are the players who exited the week with the best odds of winning the Heisman*, ranked in ascending order of their Week 5 performances.
To reiterate: These are snapshot rankings—a single grade on the season-long report card, if you will. The player at No. 1 won't necessarily be the favorite to win the Heisman, nor is the player at the bottom of our rankings in danger of dropping out of the picture altogether. It just means the former had a great performance, while the latter left something to be desired.
Team success and difficulty of opponent factor into the rankings along with individual stats and highlights.
Heisman odds accurate as of Monday and courtesy of Caesars Casino.
*Joe Burrow (9-2), Sam Ehlinger (18-1), Jake Fromm (40-1) and Justin Herbert (40-1) are among the top 10 candidates to win the Heisman, but all four of those quarterback were idle in Week 5 and thus won't be ranked here. However, it bears mentioning that Burrow, Ehlinger and Herbert each dropped considerably despite not playing. Burrow was 11-5, Ehlinger was 10-1 and Herbert was 20-1 a week ago. If you liked any of those bets then, might as well double down on them now.
Other Noteworthy Performers
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Since 40 percent of the top 10 did not play, this felt like a good week to fill space with some deep sleepers who were excellent in Week 5 and who might be on the cusp of getting into the Heisman conversation—players on the fringe of the fringe, if you will:
DeVonta Smith, Alabama (Off the Board)
11 receptions, 274 yards, 5 TD vs. Ole Miss
It was long assumed that Jerry Jeudy was Alabama's best hope to put a wide receiver in the Heisman mix, but DeVonta Smith—who also had eight catches for 136 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3 against South Carolina—is making quite the push. After destroying Ole Miss, he is now leading the Crimson Tide in both yards (537) and touchdowns (eight).
In reality, though, it's already Tua Tagovailoa-or-bust for Alabama. Smith is in the lead over Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III and Jaylen Waddle, but he is only responsible for about one-third of Tagovailoa's numbers. If either he or Jeudy can get that piece of the pie up to 50 percent, maybe we'll talk.
CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma (300-1)
7 receptions, 185 yards, 3 TD vs. Texas Tech
As is the case with Alabama's receivers, CeeDee Lamb is nowhere close to overtaking his quarterback counterpart. Heck, Lamb doesn't even have as many receiving yards (414) as Jalen Hurts has rushing yards (443). But when one makes touchdown receptions of 65 and 71 yards in one game, it's worth noting.
Sean Clifford, Penn State (Off the Board)
26-of-31, 398 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 217.2 PER; 7 carries, 54 yards, 1 TD at Maryland
A woeful Week 3 performance against Pittsburgh may have eliminated what little hope Sean Clifford had of contending for a Heisman. But Penn State is still undefeated, and he was excellent for the third time in four games, leading the freight train that annihilated Maryland 59-0 on Friday night.
The real test will come in Weeks 7-9, when the Nittany Lions have to play at Iowa, against Michigan and at Michigan State consecutively. If (a gigantic if) Clifford plays relatively well and they happen to come through that gauntlet with an 8-0 record, though, he'll be a top-five candidate for the Heisman by the end of October.
Jamie Newman, Wake Forest (500-1)
21-of-33, 243 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 139.4 PER; 23 carries, 102 yards at Boston College
Much like Clifford, Jamie Newman is the forgotten, stat-sheet-stuffing quarterback of an undefeated team. Now that 5-0 Wake Forest has finally cracked into the AP Top 25, people are bound to start paying more attention to the dual threat who has accounted for 17 of its 23 touchdowns.
The longer the Demon Deacons remain undefeated—they only play two games in October, and they're both at home against beatable foes (Louisville and Florida State)—the more legitimate Newman's case becomes.
Rashod Bateman, Minnesota (Off the Board)
6 receptions, 177 yards, 2 TD at Purdue
One more shoutout to a guy who has been crushing it for an undefeated team. Rashod Bateman has now put up at least 100 yards and a touchdown in three of Minnesota's four wins, ranking sixth in the nation with 116.5 receiving yards per game. And with Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers and Maryland on deck, he should keep hitting triple digits while the Golden Gophers keep winning games.
The element of surprise could be Bateman's best friend too. Of the 18 remaining undefeated teams, Minnesota is probably the most unexpected. If the Gophers can keep that zero intact for another month, people will be bending over backward to find a viable Heisman candidate from this Cinderella story. Bateman fits the bill so far.
6. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
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Last Week's Heisman Odds: 50-1
Current Heisman Odds: 75-1
Stats (at North Carolina): 18-of-30, 206 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 128.7 PER; 11 carries, 45 yards, 1 TD
The Good
At 75-1, Trevor Lawrence is in a distant 10th place among Heisman candidates. The top seven are each at 18-1 or better, while Jake Fromm and Justin Herbert are tied for eighth place at 40-1 following bye weeks.
If Lawrence is going to make a push back into this race, it might be because he continues to assert himself as a dual-threat quarterback. This week, he set new career highs in rushing attempts and rushing yards while running for his fourth touchdown in five games—compared to just one in the entire 2018 season.
On the touchdown drive that tied the game at 14 before halftime, Lawrence ran four times for 25 yards. On the game-winning drive, he rushed three times for 16 yards. It's becoming a pivotal part of his arsenal.
Lawrence also went without an interception for the second consecutive game. After throwing five picks in his first 88 attempts, he has been clean for the past 48. This could be the start of a dominant run for a confident star.
The Bad
Clemson barely escaped North Carolina with a 21-20 win and had difficulty moving the ball unless Lawrence was doing damage with his legs. That's because his arm accuracy was lacking, especially in the second half.
During one stretch, from the eight-minute mark of the third quarter until there were less than 12 minutes remaining in the fourth, Lawrence completed just two of eight pass attempts, each of which went for a loss of one yard. It's a good thing the defense bailed him out, or else both he and Clemson would be afterthoughts for the rest of this season.
5. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin
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Last Week's Heisman Odds: 12-1
Current Heisman Odds: 15-1
Stats (vs. Northwestern): 26 carries, 119 yards, 1 TD; 3 receptions, 15 yards
The Good
While this wasn't Jonathan Taylor's normal display of bulldozing dominance—he averaged 4.6 yards per carry after entering the day with a mark of 7.6—this was better than he normally fares against Northwestern.
Taylor managed just 46 touchdown-less yards in a loss to the Wildcats last year, this after they limited him to 80 yards in his freshman season. So, he had more yards from scrimmage in this game than in the previous two against Northwestern combined.
And if you watched the contest, it was clear the Wildcats' game plan was to do everything possible to limit Taylor while daring Jack Coan to beat them with his arm. (A strategy one has to assume more opponents will be adopting in the immediate future, considering Coan finished with 113 yards and a pick.)
Given that context, Taylor's 119 rushing yards are kind of incredible. When you're triple-teamed on every touch and still put up triple digits, you're some kind of special.
The Bad
Context be damned, this hurts Taylor's year-to-date numbers. He went from averaging 147 yards per game and 7.6 yards per carry to under 140 and under 6.7, respectively. Those are significant decreases, made even worse by the fact that Oklahoma State's Chuba Hubbard stomped a mud hole through Kansas State's defense to increase his already nation-best mark in rushing yards per game.
Moreover, Northwestern showed that Wisconsin's offense might not be capable of making an opponent pay for devoting all of its resources to stopping Taylor. Aside from the touchdown on the opening drive—during which the Badgers needed two third-down conversions and a fourth-down conversion—the team didn't score a touchdown on offense.
That can't bode well for what Taylor is going to face against the likes of Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
4. Justin Fields, Ohio State
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Last Week's Heisman Odds: 15-1
Current Heisman Odds: 7-1
Stats (at Nebraska): 15-of-21, 212 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 203.4 PER; 12 carries, 72 yards, 1 TD
The Good
Per usual, Justin Fields was wildly efficient and close to perfect. He has now thrown for 16 touchdowns and rushed for seven more, accounting for at least four scores in each of his five games—all without throwing a single interception.
He led the Buckeyes on scoring drives of at least 50 yards on each of their first six possessions (five touchdowns, one field goal), opening up a laughable 38-0 lead by halftime of what was supposed to be one of the most competitive games of the week.
For the second straight contest, Fields averaged better than 10 yards per pass attempt. And even though this 48-7 blowout exposed Nebraska as a fraud, there's no question that his doing it on the road against a conference opponent was more impressive than lighting up Miami (Ohio) in a home game.
The Bad
Efficiency is great, but Fields' numbers aren't as jaw-dropping as those of his Heisman-contending brethren. He has yet to throw for more than 234 yards or four touchdowns, and he is only averaging 44.4 rushing yards per game. Joe Burrow had the week off, and he still has significantly more passing yards (1,520) in four games than Fields has combined passing and rushing yards (1,314) in five games.
Of course, part of that is because Fields is leading an unstoppable offense for a team that has held its last four opponents to a combined 22 points. Even on the off chance he stays in the game into the fourth quarter, Ohio State has spent the majority of its second halves just bleeding out clock on blowout victories.
It's hard to rack up raw numbers in that situation. (See: 2018 Tua Tagovailoa.) If the Buckeyes keep throttling Big Ten opponents, though, Fields will eventually be right up there with Burrow, Hurts and Tagovailoa.
3. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma
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Last Week's Heisman Odds: 11-5
Current Heisman Odds: 2-1
Stats (vs. Texas Tech): 17-of-24, 415 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 249.0 PER; 9 carries, 70 yards, 1 TD
The Good
Remember when Jalen Hurts was at Alabama and everyone perceived him as this dink-and-dunk, game-managing scrambler who didn't have much of an arm?
Yeah, well, about that...
Hurts had touchdown passes of 71 yards and 65 yards to CeeDee Lamb. He also connected with Charleston Rambo for gains of 74 and 48 yards. He averaged 17.3 yards per attempt and 24.4 yards per completion in Oklahoma's 55-16 beatdown of Texas Tech.
Hurts' incredible rushing numbers (entered day at 124.3 YPG and 9.8 YPC) decreased a little bit, but he is now averaging 477.3 combined passing and rushing yards per game against FBS opponents. Kyler Murray was at 344.0 after three games last year. Even Lamar Jackson was "only" at 459.0 through the first three games of his 2016 Heisman campaign.
The Bad
Hurts threw his first interception of the season. But it happened in plus-territory with a 31-point lead, and he still finished with a passing efficiency rating north of 245 for the fourth consecutive game...so who really cares?
The only bad for Hurts remains the defenses that he's destroying. Texas Tech had not yet faced a respectable passing opponent, but the Red Raiders were ranked 129th out of 130 FBS teams in passing yards allowed per game last season and are expected to struggle in that regard in Big 12 play. Hurts also torched Houston, South Dakota and UCLA, neither of which has a Maginot Line in its secondary either.
Beating up on the Big 12 didn't stop Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray from winning the Heisman, though, and it won't stop Hurts if he keeps leading this offense to more than 55 points per game.
2. Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State
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Last Week's Heisman Odds: 18-1
Current Heisman Odds: 18-1
Stats (vs. Kansas State): 25 carries, 296 yards, 1 TD
The Good
"Oklahoma State" and "elite rushing game" don't usually go hand-in-hand, but sophomore running back Chuba Hubbard is rewriting that script. He was already leading the nation in rushing yards per game at 160.5, but this 296-yard explosion in a 26-13 win over No. 24 Kansas State catapulted him to 187.6.
Most of Hubbard's carries against Kansas State went for one-to-six yards, but he also had a 53-yarder in the first quarter, an 84-yard touchdown run on Oklahoma State's first play of the second half and a 44-yard gain late in the fourth to help seal the deal.
It's still early in the season, but if he were to maintain that 187.6 pace, it would be the highest such mark since LaDainian Tomlinson averaged 196.2 yards per game way back in 2000. Assuming 4-1 Oklahoma State qualifies for a bowl game, that rate puts Hubbard on pace for 2,439 yards. Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon (in 14 games in 2014) is the only player in the past decade to eclipse 2,250, so that would be incredible.
Even though Oklahoma State is easily the most irrelevant team represented among the current top 10 Heisman contenders, it's hard to believe Hubbard's odds didn't improve as a result of this performance. This guy is leading the nation by a margin of 284 yards. People are eventually going to notice, right?
The Bad
This is more inexplicable than it is bad, but head coach Mike Gundy only called Hubbard's number four times in the first 24 minutes of this game. Oklahoma State ran 13 plays before giving Hubbard a carry and then finally realized that Kansas State had no hope of tackling him behind the line of scrimmage. (Each of his 25 carries gained at least one yard.)
Had the Cowboys gotten Hubbard involved earlier, perhaps they wouldn't have punted on each of their first two possessions, and maybe he would have become the first player to rush for at least 330 yards in a game since West Virginia's Justin Crawford did it in November 2016.
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
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Last Week's Heisman Odds: +180
Current Heisman Odds: -130
Stats (vs. Ole Miss): 26-of- 36, 418 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT, 224.8 PER; 1 rush TD
The Good
The six passing touchdowns (as well as the seven total touchdowns) are a new career high for Tua Tagovailoa. The 418 passing yards also would have been a career high if he hadn't gone for 444 two weeks ago. And when last year's Heisman runner-up and this year's Heisman favorite is reaching (or almost reaching) new milestones, goodness gracious.
It wasn't unexpected. Ole Miss had allowed at least 300 passing yards in each of its previous three games, despite facing Arkansas, Southeastern Louisiana and California. This was the type of game in which Tagovailoa needed to do something ridiculous just in order to keep anyone from trying to question how good he is. He delivered and then some.
His best pass of the day wasn't even a touchdown. Tagovailoa was facing 3rd-and-long midway through the second quarter in a 17-10 game, and Ole Miss brought an untouched blitzer from the secondary. Tua calmly juked the Rebel, remained in the pocket and delivered a bullet to Jerry Jeudy for a 25-yard gain.
The Crimson Tide would score three plays later and proceeded to blow the game wide-open en route to a 59-31 victory.
The Bad
As was the case in Week 3 when Tagovailoa tore apart South Carolina's secondary, the only negative remark to be made is that a teammate overshadowed him.
DeVonta Smith accounted for 274 receiving yards and five touchdowns, and he did a lot of that damage on his own. His first three touchdowns went for a combined 127 yards, but he got 117 of those after the catch, making two receptions at the line of scrimmage on 3rd-and-long before turning on the afterburners.
That doesn't take anything away from Tagovailoa's numbers, but it does mean he's sharing the spotlight with a receiver again. That hasn't been a problem for Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow or Justin Fields, though that is partially because those guys do a lot more with their legs, while Tagovailoa is more dependent upon his pass-catchers.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
