College Football Odds Week 5: Picks, Predictions and Spread for Top 25 Teams
The second-best team in the ACC is thrust into the college football spotlight in Week 5.
No. 18 Virginia visits No. 10 Notre Dame in one of two Top 25 matchups Saturday afternoon.
The trip to Notre Dame Stadium allows the Cavaliers to prove the ACC is not a one-team conference, with Clemson the clear favorite to win it.
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For the Fighting Irish, the contest gives them a chance to bounce back from their loss to Georgia and get on track for showdowns against USC and Michigan.
On Friday, No. 15 California's quest to remain the lone undefeated team in the Pac-12 captures our attention.
Week 5 Schedule and Odds
All Times ET.
Friday, September 27
No. 12 Penn State (-6.5) at Maryland (8 p.m., FS1)
Arizona State at No. 15 California (-4.5) (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
Saturday, September 28
Texas Tech at No. 6 Oklahoma (-27) (Noon)
Northwestern at No. 8 Wisconsin (-24.5) (Noon, ABC)
Middle Tennessee at No. 14 Iowa (-23) (Noon, ESPN2)
Rutgers at No. 20 Michigan (-28) (Noon, BTN)
No. 23 Texas A&M (-23.5) vs. Arkansas (Noon, ESPN)
No. 1 Clemson (-27) at North Carolina (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Ole Miss at No. 2 Alabama (-37.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS)
No. 18 Virginia at No. 10 Notre Dame (-12.5) (3:30 p.m., NBC)
No. 21 USC at No. 17 Washington (-10.5) (3:30 p.m., Fox)
Indiana at No. 25 Michigan State (-14) (3:30 p.m., BTN)
Towson at No. 9 Florida (N/A) (4 p.m., SEC Network)
Mississippi State at No. 7 Auburn (-10.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)
UConn at No. 22 UCF (-43.5) (7 p.m., ESPN2)
No. 24 Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-4.5) (7 p.m., ESPN+)
No. 5 Ohio State (-17) at Nebraska (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Washington State at No. 19 Utah (-5.5) (10 p.m., FS1)
Picks
No. 18 Virginia (+12.5) at No. 10 Notre Dame
Virginia has a lot going against it Saturday.
According to David Teel of the Daily Press, the Cavaliers have never beaten a top-10 squad on their travels, and their most recent triumph over a side in that echelon came in 2005 against Florida State.
Bronco Mendenhall's team is also coming off an average performance at home versus Old Dominion in which it trailed for three quarters.
The trip to Notre Dame is a prove-it game for Virginia, and Mendenhall knows his team is excited for the challenge, per Teel.
"There are a lot of cool and positive things happening in our program," Mendenhall said. "There will always be another metric, and this is the next one. So Notre Dame is a very good team, national prominence, powerful name. We're anxious to play."
In the loss to Georgia, Irish quarterback Ian Book benefited from the return of tight end Cole Kmet. Head coach Brian Kelly is well aware of the impact Kmet can make, per WSBT's Pete Byrne.
"He creates a matchup problem that can spread the field, if you will, for other receivers to get some favorable matchups," Kelly said. "Yeah, he's a big piece to what we're doing."
Virginia conceded 206 passing yards to Old Dominion and let up 234 to Florida State the week before.
Kmet accounted for 108 of the 275 yards thrown by Book at Sanford Stadium Saturday. If the pair can do similar damage, the Irish could pull away.
But a blowout may not be in store for Notre Dame since the Cavaliers have held three opponents beneath 20 points.
Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins, who has 1,036 total yards, can hurt Notre Dame's defense from a few angles, as long as he limits his turnovers. He threw a pair of interceptions versus Florida State and William and Mary.
Notre Dame reached 40 points once in four ranked contests in 2018. If Virginia can contain the Irish on a few possessions, it will have a chance to creep back into the game and cover the growing 12.5-point spread.
Arizona State at No. 15 California (-4.5)
California enters Week 5 off the largest leap in the AP Top 25.
The Golden Bears are no longer considered on the fringe of the rankings, and they have an opportunity to build on that momentum Friday at home versus Arizona State.
Quarterback Chase Garbers, who threw for 357 yards in the road win over Ole Miss, is the key to unlocking the Sun Devils defense.
Cal head coach Justin Wilcox had high praise for the sophomore after the close victory in Oxford, Mississippi, per 247Sports' Lorenzo J. Reyna.
"I thought that was Chase's best game by far," Wilcox said. "He played confident. He had one throw on the pick he would like to have back, but I think he just played awesome."
In the Week 4 loss to Colorado, Arizona State conceded 345 passing yards and 34 points. The performance will be concerning for Herm Edwards' team, especially since it experienced a similar slump after beating Michigan State in 2018.
Garbers is backed by a defense that concedes 17.3 points per game and allowed one team to reach the 20-point mark.
Linebacker Evan Weaver is Cal's defensive star to watch, as he is coming off a 22-tackle showing. The senior has more than 10 tackles in each of his four games and could be key to stopping Eno Benjamin out of the Sun Devils backfield.
The junior running back is averaging 3.8 yards per carry and was held to 38 rushing yards on 11 carries by Michigan State.
If Benjamin is unable to make an impact, freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels will be forced to step up. Although he threw for 345 yards in the defeat to Colorado, the first-year signal-caller has not recorded a completion percentage over 63 yet.
Cal has beaten three of its four opponents by six points or more, so it should cover a 4.5-point line.
A win would set up a colossal clash with Oregon in Week 6 time that could determine the best Pac-12 team.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
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