Some Teams Don't Waste Time

I love the period of wheeling and dealing that comes immediately after the World Series ends and lasts until about a week before Christmas.  The Angels just resigned Bobby Abreu for a two-year deal at a reported $19 million, and the Red Sox traded a couple of prospects to the Marlins for Jeremy Hermida.

I like the Abreu signing for all concerned.  Abreu won’t be going to bed hungry any time soon, and the Angels can certainly afford $19 million over two seasons for a player, who isn’t what he once was, but still has a lot to offer on offense.  Abreu will be 36 and 37 the next two seasons, and he’s long past his peak.  However, he’s been remarkably consistent the last three seasons, and he still runs well, which is particularly valuable for the type of player he is: a guy who gets on base.

Abreu’s on-base percentages the last three seasons have been .369, .371 and .390.  He’s stolen 77 bases in 104 attempts, a 74% success rate, and excellent for a player in his mid-30’s.  Getting on base and runnning well have resulted in an average of 106 runs scored per season over the last three seasons.  The runs totals have dropped from 123 in 2007 to 96 in 2009 and his games played have dropped from 158 in 2007 to 152 in 2009, but the drop-offs are so relatively small that you have to figure he’s still a good bet for 2010 and 2011.

A player who gets on base and runs well is just enormously valuable as a top-of-the-lineup hitter.  There aren’t many teams in baseball, if any, with two number-one and -two hitters as good as Bobby Abreu has been the last three seasons.

The Red Sox’s thinking in obtaining Jeremy Hermida is obvious.  They are getting a player with great tools, who, after three years (albeit somewhat disappointing) as a major league regular, is due for a big step up in performance in 2010 through 2012 at age 26 through 28.  That’s a good bet to make, particularly when the young player has a relatively respectable career .344 OBP  and some power (48 HRs over the last three season) so far.  The AL is the tougher league, but Hermida will be moving from a pitchers’ park in Miami to a hitters’ park in Boston.

In fact, except for the fact that the Marlins are involved, it’s surprising how little the BoSox gave up in return.  Hunter Jones is a left-handed reliever, who at the same age as Hermida, has not yet established himself as a legitimate major league player.  My guess is that he’ll have a successful career as a major league left-handed short-man, but these guys aren’t worth a major league regular.  20 year old lefty Jose Alvarez has a good arm, but has never pitched above A+ ball and his strikeouts-to-IP ratio is underwhelming given the level of competition he’s faced.

This is the kind of deal that makes sense only because the Marlins are involved.  They don’t want to pay Hermida arbitration money for the level of performance he’s given them so far in his major league career.  Needless to say, a smart, wealthy team like the Red Sox can swoop in and get a player with enormous up-side at a cost that is extremely reasonable for a top-eight-in-wealth team.  Red Sox fans should love this gamble as the odds are definitely favorable.