Power Ranking USA Men's Basketball Roster Ahead of 2019 FIBA World Cup
Australia ended a 78-game winning streak for the USA Basketball men's senior team in the lead-up to the 2019 FIBA Basketball World Cup that starts Saturday in China.
The hosts won 98-94 in front of 52,079 fans in Melbourne. After all the high-profile departures for the U.S. prior to and during its minicamp, the result feels like it could be a sign of things to come.
Australia was without Ben Simmons and Dante Exum. Patty Mills went off for 30 points. Joe Ingles had 15 points and seven assists. Andrew Bogut had 16 points, nine rebounds and four dimes.
Those are three NBA-level players, but tougher tests in the field include Giannis Antetokounmpo (Greece), Nikola Jokic (Serbia) and Rudy Gobert (France).
The Americans will have to be much better to win this tournament, as coach Gregg Popovich explained, per Eric Nehm of The Athletic:
"The loss means that we need to play better. It's a measure of who you are. Nobody wins forever. This is a group of guys who's worked very hard to get to know each other and get to know a system. And whatever comes, we can handle. Our job is to try to get better every day.
"We looked discombobulated at times, made some poor decisions. Some of it is expected with a new group that's trying to learn about each other and learn a system. So, it's not surprising, but the Aussies gave us a great lesson as far as where we have to be and how we have to play in this kind of competition.
"So we'll get used to that and hopefully learn."
The USA may not have the best individual player in some of its upcoming games, but this should still be the deepest team in the competition. All 12 members of the roster are at least NBA rotation players. A few are stars (or near-stars). A few more have the potential to be.
On the eve of the tournament, we'll break down the entire group, using 2018-19 real plus-minus (RPM) and box plus/minus (BPM) as well as 2019-20 wins above replacement (WAR) projections from FiveThirtyEight.
But think of those numbers as guideposts, rather than some sort of nonmalleable criteria. All three are derived from playing in the NBA. The international game is different.
Fewer timeouts, a shorter three-point line and loads of zone defense can lead to a more free-flowing style than some NBA players are used to. In the loss to Australia, the U.S. had half as many assists (11) as its opponents (22). Ingles and Bogut combined for 11 just between themselves.
In addition to the numbers already cited, the potential to fit into the international game will be factored into these rankings as well.
But before we get to the roster, let's see when the team will be in action and where you can watch.
How to Watch
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The Americans are in Group E with the Czech Republic, Japan and Turkey. The schedule for their opening games can be found on the team's website.
- September 1: USA vs. Czech Republic, 8:30 a.m. ET (ESPN+)
- September 3: USA vs. Turkey, 8:30 a.m. ET (ESPN+)
- September 5: USA vs. Japan, 8:30 a.m. ET (ESPN+)
Following the first round of group play, the top two teams from each of the eight four-team groups advance to a second round of group play.
According to the tournament's website, the results of the three games from the first round carry over to the second Round. Every team plays against the two teams in their group that they did not face in the first round for a total of 16 games (two games per team, four games per group).
The top two teams from each second-round group (eight in total) advance to traditional bracket play.
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12. Mason Plumlee
2018-19 RPM: 1.06
2018-19 BPM: 3.8
2019-20 Projected WAR: 1.7
Mason Plumlee's game should actually translate fairly well to international play. His passing ability is good for a free-flowing game. And the USA could use his physicality against bigs like Jokic or Marc Gasol.
His placement here has more to do with the other two centers on the roster.
Plumlee is the best passer of the bench (4.7 assists per 75 possessions over the last three seasons), but the outside shooting of Myles Turner and Brook Lopez could be even more important with the shorter three-point line in play.
11. Derrick White
2018-19 RPM: 1.98
2018-19 BPM: 0.9
2019-20 Projected WAR: 3.7
San Antonio Spurs guard Derrick White has two years of experience with Popovich, but he still figures to be behind starters Kemba Walker and Donovan Mitchell in the rotation.
If he can prove to be a more consistent shooter than Marcus Smart from the outside, he may leapfrog the reserve. If you're just looking at the defensive end, those are the top two guards.
Against teams with strong guard play, like the Australians with Mills, they'll be more important.
10. Harrison Barnes
2018-19 RPM: -0.21
2018-19 BPM: -2.3
2019-20 Projected WAR: 0.3
The numbers don't love Harrison Barnes. In fact, if these rankings were based on nothing but them, Barnes would be No. 12.
But the construct of this team suggests he'll be almost exclusively a 4. That's good for him. And despite the loss, Barnes showed against Australia what could make him valuable at the World Cup.
Barnes went 3-of-5 from three on the way to 20 points. And spacing from the frontcourt should draw bigs away from the rim, opening up slashing lanes for Mitchell and Walker.
9. Joe Harris
2018-19 RPM: -0.15
2018-19 BPM: 1.0
2019-20 Projected WAR: 1.2
Speaking of shooting, no one on this roster provides it more consistently than Joe Harris.
His 47.4 three-point percentage didn't just lead the NBA last season. It's the third-highest ever among seasons with at least 386 attempts. Kyle Korver's 49.2 in 2014-15 and JJ Redick's 47.5 in 2015-16 are the only campaigns ahead of Harris' 2018-19.
And while playing the 4 might be difficult (or nearly impossible) for Harris in the NBA, the U.S. may be able to get away with a few minutes of the 6'6" shooter there against certain international squads.
8. Jaylen Brown
2018-19 RPM: -1.12
2018-19 BPM: -2.1
2019-20 Projected WAR: 2.9
In terms of lateral and vertical athleticism, the Americans should have an advantage on the wings over the competition in China. Jaylen Brown is one of the reasons why.
Brown's defense will be important against teams with NBA talent on the wings (Marco Belinelli for Italy, Bogdan Bogdanovic for Serbia and Cedi Osman for Turkey, just to name a few).
But that's something you can pretty much count on. His consistency as a shooter may be the real key to success. In three exhibition games (one against Spain and two against Australia), he's at 70.6 percent from the field.
7. Marcus Smart
2018-19 RPM: 2.25
2018-19 BPM: 1.8
2019-20 Projected WAR: 3.9
For years, the only thing holding Smart back was poor shooting. Through the end of the 2017-18 season, among players with at least 1,000 three-point attempts, Smart was 395th (out of 396) in effective field-goal percentage.
In 2018-19, Smart's percentage skyrocketed from 43.1 in the first four years to 53.3.
If Smart can maintain that kind of efficiency in the World Cup, he could prove to be the X-factor off the USA bench.
He's likely the squad's best perimeter defender. Combining that with a little shooting will make him an important piece.
6. Brook Lopez
2018-19 RPM: 4.07
2018-19 BPM: 2.7
2019-20 Projected WAR: 2.8
Lopez blocked 179 shots in 2018-19. Kevin Garnett's career high was 178. Lopez also hit 187 threes. Kobe Bryant's career high was 180.
That combination of stats, pointed out by DailyNBApoll, is a mind bender. And Lopez's combination of rim protection and outside shooting seems almost tailor-made for this tournament.
5. Myles Turner
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2018-19 RPM: 1.53
2018-19 BPM: 3.3
2019-20 Projected WAR: 3.1
Turner possesses a lot of the traits that make Lopez such an intriguing fit in international basketball. He's also eight years younger and moves a little better in space.
One luxury the U.S. has is the ability to deploy Turner against quicker, more skilled bigs while using Lopez more often against lumberers.
In terms of those international-friendly skills Turner possesses, his rim protection and floor-spacing should be key.
Over the last three seasons, among players with at least 3,000 minutes, Turner is second in block percentage. And with the relaxed international rules on goaltending (players can knock a ball rolling around the rim off the cylinder), Turner should be a nightmare for opposing drivers to deal with.
As for the shooting, Turner's career three-point percentage is 36.3. Last season alone, he was at 38.8 percent from deep. But what's even more interesting are his numbers on long twos.
In Turner's four NBA seasons, he's never ranked lower than the 95th percentile in the percentage of attempts coming from the "long two" range. Over the course of his career, around a third of his attempts have been long twos. And in the last two seasons, his field-goal percentage in that range ranked in the 80th and 72nd percentiles, respectively.
Why does that matter in international play? Again, the three-point line in this tournament is about a foot-and- a-half shorter than it is in the NBA. And Turner's prowess in the long-two range might actually make him slightly more comfortable from three.
Like Lopez, he should be able to draw bigger defenders away from the rim, creating more space for the wings and guards inside.
4. Khris Middleton
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2018-19 RPM: 1.89
2018-19 BPM: 0.8
2019-20 Projected WAR: 2.9
Like Barnes, the 6'8" Khris Middleton may have the size necessary to log minutes at the 4 for the USA. And theoretically, lineups with him and three other wing/guards should be able to play a nice, spread-out offense.
Of course, the effectiveness of such an alignment probably depends on the Americans passing better than they did in their loss to Australia, but having that option is nice.
In the NBA, Middleton has been a reliable No. 2 option alongside Giannis over the last two seasons, averaging 19.2 points with a 56.8 true shooting percentage (one point above average).
And, like Turner, Middleton's been well above average in the long-two range. In the last two campaigns, Middleton's ranked in the 100th and 75th percentiles, respectively, in percentage of attempts that were long twos. His long mid-range field-goal percentages of 49 in 2017-18 and 42 in 2018-19 ranked in the 92nd and 66th percentiles.
He's another player who could take advantage of the shorter three-point line.
3. Jayson Tatum
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2018-19 RPM: 1.39
2018-19 BPM: -0.8
2019-20 Projected WAR: 5.0
Another combo 3/4, Jayson Tatum has a chance to announce his arrival on the world stage during this tournament.
In his two NBA campaigns, Tatum totaled 2,355 points and 221 threes. Only 13 other players in NBA history hit both marks in their first two seasons. And if you sort that list by three-point percentage, the top three reads:
- Stephen Curry (43.9)
- Ben Gordon (42.1)
- Jayson Tatum (40.0)
Sort it by height and Tatum trails only Kyle Kuzma, whose three-point percentage (33.5) pales in comparison.
At 6'8", Tatum might even be able to play some de facto 5 against smaller teams in the World Cup. It's not something the Americans could get away with for long stretches (or something the Boston Celtics could do at all), but it's a possibility in international play.
Regardless of where he plays positionally, Tatum should have plenty of opportunities to get shots up. If he becomes the second-option scorer (or even first on some nights), the confidence he develops in this tournament could have a far-reaching effect.
2. Donovan Mitchell
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2018-19 RPM: 2.02
2018-19 BPM: 0.6
2019-20 Projected WAR: 5.4
As a number of high-profile players withdrew during the lead-up to this tournament, Mitchell rose to prominence among those left standing for the U.S.
The Ringer's Bill Simmons explained on a mid-August episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast: "I had sent some under-the-radar feelers for like, 'Hey, who knocked everybody's socks off this week?' And Mitchell was the guy. And everybody—it seems like he's a little stronger? I don't know what he did this summer, but they just were like, 'He's so strong, so explosive.' It's starting to feel like there's some 2006 Dwyane Wade potential with his next season was what I gathered."
In Wade's third season (2005-06), he averaged 27.2 points, 6.7 assists and 5.7 rebounds and 1.9 steals. He finished sixth in MVP voting. And the Miami Heat won the championship that year.
Forecasting that kind of season for Mitchell is bold, but he did averaged 26.5 points, 4.8 assists and 4.5 rebounds in 34.8 minutes from January 1 to the end of last season.
And he does seem to still be improving during his time with the USA, even in ways that may not show up in box scores.
"I think, right off the bat, he's a stud," USA assistant coach Lloyd Pierce told Marc Stein of the New York Times. "He's taken on a leadership role right from the start. He's very vocal in our meetings. We're playing him some at point guard, and he's defending some on the ball. He's just a confident, vocal, natural leader."
All of this experience should help Mitchell as he progresses through his NBA career. In the short term, he looks like a solid bet to be one of this team's very best players in China.
1. Kemba Walker
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2018-19 RPM: 2.76
2018-19 BPM: 3.3
2019-20 Projected WAR: 7.4
Kemba is not only the best player on the U.S.—he is the best guard in the entire 32-team tournament field.
Over the last three NBA seasons, Walker has averaged 23.7 points and 5.7 assists on above-average true shooting. He's 10th among guards in box plus/minus in that span. The nine ahead of him aren't participating in the World Cup.
On this team, Walker has a chance to lead the most talented bunch of players he's ever played with. And in big moments, he'll be expected to do exactly that—lead.
"If anybody can get the most out of this roster and mine for the perfect lineups that properly fit all these unexpected pieces together, it’s Gregg Popovich," Sports Illustrated's Khadrice Rollins. "But if anybody is going to take over games when the team needs to be carried to victory late, it will likely be Walker."
Of course, he couldn't prevent the loss to Australia prior to the tournament, but when the intensity ratchets up for the real games in September, expect Walker to have plenty of big moments.
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