Now-or-Never 2019 MLB Trade Deadline Deals to Supercharge Contenders
Wednesday afternoon represents every contender's last chance to make a major acquisition prior to MLB's lone trade deadline. With powerhouses vying for supremacy and fringe playoff candidates fighting for survival, no contender can afford to stay idle.
While the wild-card spots keep more than half of MLB's squads in the mix, the division races aren't nearly as gripping. As of Sunday, every leader outside of the American League Central and National League Central brandished a lead of at least 5.5 games.
As a result, FanGraphs ascribes each of them higher than 97 percent chances of reaching the playoffs. Some observers may see this as an excuse to sit back and preserve the status quo, but these title hopefuls should instead make moves to ensure October success.
Other squads, of course, must merely worry about advancing.
Whatever the case, their areas of need don't differ much. Pitching is the common thread for most World Series hopefuls. This desire has created a seller's market that has plenty of high-profile hurlers inhabiting the hot stove.
These deals vary in terms of likelihood and necessity, but let's examine some acquisitions that would provide contenders an extra burst near the finish line.
Nicholas Castellanos to Chicago Cubs
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Unlike most contenders, the Chicago Cubs have a firm five-man rotation once Cole Hamels returns from an oblique strain. Acquiring Derek Holland from the San Francisco Giants suggests they might not want to spend too heavily on the bullpen.
As everyone else scours the market for pitching, the Cubs should focus on landing a right-handed hitter. Their weighted runs created plus (wRC+) drops to a below-average 92 against southpaws. Outfielders Kyle Schwarber (71 wRC+), Jason Heyward (48) and Albert Amora Jr. (36) have especially struggled in this split.
Despite his defensive flaws, Nicholas Castellanos is the perfect candidate to bolster the lineup.
He hasn't lived up to a breakout 2018, but the 27-year-old has clobbered lefties to a 166 wRC+ in 82 plate appearances. It's not just small-sample noise; he's a career .300/.354/.514 hitter versus southpaws.
This fit makes too much sense not to happen. Saddled with an MLB-low 30 wins, the Detroit Tigers should flip the pending free agent for a mid-level prospect or two. The cost would be low enough for Chicago to not fret about the defensive alignment.
Per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, the Cubs are a "serious suitor" for Castellanos. While he wouldn't elevate them to NL favorites, the needed offensive upgrade could help them survive an intense NL Central race with the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers.
Edwin Diaz to Los Angeles Dodgers
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Running away with the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers will have an opportunity to reach their third straight World Series. Since they're blessed with a stacked rotation and the Senior Circuit's premier offense, the bullpen represents the biggest potential pothole to fill.
After consecutive runner-up finishes, the Dodgers should make a major splash by pairing closer Kenley Jansen with another elite late-inning dynamo. Built for long-term success, it'd behoove them to land a standout under contract beyond 2019.
How about a 25-year-old sporting a career 3.01 ERA and 38.2 percent strikeout rate?
Last Wednesday, ESPN's Jeff Passan reported the New York Mets are "open to dealing" Edwin Diaz. It still sounded like an ill-timed long shot to move a cost-controlled star during a down year.
But this is the Mets, so who knows? On Friday night, Joel Sherman of the New York Post said the chances of a Diaz trade have "greatly increased." This was before they potentially pivoted to buyers by officially acquiring Marcus Stroman from the Toronto Blue Jays for pitching prospects Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson.
This doesn't—or at least it shouldn't—mean the 50-55 Mets are shifting into full buyer's mode. They'd still have to make up six games and pass six teams to reach the postseason. It's possible they're simply trying to corner the pitching market and/or locating next year's replacement for pending free agent Zack Wheeler. Perhaps they'll now flip Noah Syndergaard, who is just as confused as everyone else.
If they're still selling Diaz, the Dodgers should buy. While he has already relinquished more hits (45) and home runs (eight) than in 2018, he has maintained the dominant stuff to support a rebound. Diaz has compiled 61 strikeouts in 40 frames. Baseball Savant also provides hope of regression to the mean with a .271 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) far below his .336 wOBA.
Although the Dodgers would particularly benefit from adding a high-leverage southpaw, the right-handed Diaz has stymied lefties to a .179/.278/.308 slash line throughout his career. He could carry them over the hump if he rediscovers his dominant slider in Los Angeles.
Ken Giles to Minnesota Twins
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The Minnesota Twins have mashed their way to the top of the AL Central. Although the rotation could use a top-tier upgrade alongside ace Joe Berrios, a bullpen that has posted a cumulative 4.41 ERA represents the bigger concern.
In order to pose a serious threat to the Houston Astros and New York Yankees, the Twins need a marquee reliever capable of retiring all of the competition's premier righty bats. They started the process by snagging Sergio Romo from the Miami Marlins, but the 36-year-old is more of a depth piece at this juncture of his career.
A former Astros closer could change teams for the second straight summer.
La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune linked Minnesota to Ken Giles earlier this month. More recently, MLB Network's Jon Morosi said the Twins and Toronto Blue Jays had discussed a package deal centered around Giles and Marcus Stroman for Trevor Larnach and Brusdar Graterol.
With that blockbuster off the table, perhaps they'd be more comfortable moving one of those prospects for Giles. The righty has registered a 1.54 ERA in a redemptive season as Toronto's closer. He could assume the same role for the Twins or share the final innings with lefty Taylor Rogers depending on matchups.
He has lacked the consistency of a top-flight closer, and any interested contender will remember his nightmarish 2017 postseason. Giles has nevertheless delivered elite results more often than not, as reflected by his 2.68 career ERA.
If not Giles, Minnesota needs to land another high-leverage reliever to prove it belongs alongside the other AL powerhouses.
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Yasiel Puig to Cleveland Indians
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A month ago, this article would have instead focused on another contender invigorating its rotation by attaining Trevor Bauer from Cleveland. Instead, the Indians can look to create a larger cushion in their wild-card lead while chasing the Minnesota Twins for their fourth consecutive AL Central crown.
Their need is obvious. No AL contender has a worse wRC+ than Cleveland's 94. Bobby Bradley batted .178 in 15 games before getting demoted back to Triple-A, so the club could use a designated hitter or corner outfielder.
The answer is in Ohio, where the Cincinnati Reds have conversely fallen out of the playoff picture in July. As a result, Yasiel Puig is "a particularly strong candidate to be moved," per The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal
Cleveland's offense has stirred lately due to Oscar Mercado's emergence and Jose Ramirez's recent resurgence. Another red-hot hitter still wouldn't hurt, and Puig is batting .302 with 12 home runs since the start of June.
The pending free agent shouldn't cost a fortune, which is a major selling point given Cleveland's historical frugalness. The 28-year-old would fill a glaring hole and offer a major jolt of energy during the final two months.
Matthew Boyd to New York Yankees
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Last week, every Yankees starter relinquished at least six runs in a five-game window against the Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox. As noted by Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News, it was the most runs ceded through one turn of the team's rotation since August 1945.
The staff isn't as big a disaster as this putrid stretch suggests. It should, however, give the Evil Empire ample motivation to acquire an upgrade with October in mind.
Unfortunately for the Yankees, Trevor Bauer and Madison Bumgarner are less likely to get traded, with the Cleveland Indians and San Francisco Giants playing much better in recent weeks. An inferiority complex may stop the New York Mets from letting Noah Syndergaard wear pinstripes in the Bronx.
Making matters worse, the Mets also poached their crosstown rival's best target in Marcus Stroman. But if the Yankees can pry him from the Detroit Tigers, Matthew Boyd would make one heck of a consolation prize.
In the midst of a breakout year, the 28-year-old lefty has submitted a 3.94 ERA and 178 strikeouts in 132.1 innings. While he had also endured a rough patch recently, Boyd settled down to relinquish three combined runs in his last two starts against the Seattle Mariners and Philadelphia Phillies.
Boyd will cost more than Stroman because of his two extra years of team control. Toronto's righty made a better fit due to his desire for the spotlight and success against AL playoff contenders in 2019, but Boyd boasts a superior 3.47 FIP and misses way more bats.
Noah Syndergaard to Houston Astros
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Along with augmenting the odds of the New York Mets trading Edwin Diaz, Joel Sherman of the New York Post sounded the sirens on Syndergaard. An executive told him the Mets are "definitely trading" the hard-throwing righty.
Sherman said that while the Houston Astros "have most fervently pursued Syndergaard," the Mets see the San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves as the clubs best positioned to complete a deal. Then again, that could instantly change if the Astros offered a package led by front-line prospects Kyle Tucker or Forrest Whitley.
Houston already boasts baseball's best one-two rotation punch in Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander. Wade Miley has emerged as a sturdy No. 3, and Jose Urquidy has flaunted immense promise in his last two starts. Acquiring Syndergaard isn't vital to winning another AL pennant.
It would, however, make the Astros an instant World Series front-runner.
Syndergaard's sinker has permitted an atrocious 146 wRC+, but he has thrown the poor offering more than any other pitch. Cole had a similar problem before the Astros had him lean on his dominant four-seamer and slider.
Undeniable talent makes Syndergaard's 4.33 ERA all the more maddening. Houston's top-notch analytics department could unlock his elite upside to create a three-headed monster at the forefront of its rotation.
With an offense back at full strength—now featuring outstanding rookie Yordan Alvarez—and a bullpen anchored by Ryan Pressly and Roberto Osuna, the Astros would be a superteam that could even withstand the Avengers if they added MLB's Thor.
Felipe Vazquez to Atlanta Braves
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The Braves already landed their rotation upgrade when they signed Dallas Keuchel in June. Now they should turn their attention to a bullpen that has outperformed its FIP more than any other team.
By acquiring a significant reliever, Atlanta would protect itself from impending regression and block a big name from the Washington Nationals. Whether the addition closes instead of Luke Jackson or takes the highest-leverage spots, the Braves need more depth and dependability.
This proposal is less probable than the other pairings, as Pittsburgh Pirates general manager Neal Huntington has not expressed much interest in moving Felipe Vazquez. According to MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi, he wants a "premium bat and premium arm" back for the 28-year-old lefty.
The high asking price is understandable. One of the game's most reliable relievers, Vazquez has recorded a 1.87 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 43.1 innings. He's under contract for two more full seasons before Pittsburgh can enact affordable $10 million club options in 2022 and 2023.
If properly motivated, the Braves would have the farm system to tempt Huntington. They house four of MLB.com's top-40 prospects and plenty of young pitchers with major league experience (Touki Toussaint, Bryse Wilson, Luiz Gohara).
Vazquez—or another reliever such as Ken Giles, Will Smith or Kirby Yates—would help Atlanta secure the NL East crown. Perhaps the Braves could also advance past the National League Division Series for the first time since 2001.
Note: All advanced stats, updated as of Sunday, are courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise stated.
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.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
