SF Giants Would Be Foolish to Keep Madison Bumgarner, Ignore What They Are

Life was so much simpler when the San Francisco Giants were a last-place dud headed for an inevitable fire sale. Suffice it to say that things are more complicated now.

But because somebody has to say, "Screw it: The Giants should sell at the trade deadline anyway," here goes nothing.

Screw it: The Giants should sell at the trade deadline anyway.

It's an awkward time to say as much because of how the Giants have split the 103 games they've played:

• First 82 G: 35-47 with a minus-95 run differential
• Last 21 G: 17-4 with a plus-52 run differential

As that run differential indicates, the Giants haven't exactly lucked their way into 17 wins in their last 21 games. Their pitching has put up a 3.64 ERA while their offense has exploded for 6.5 runs per game. 

San Francisco has recently been specializing in clutch hitting with four walk-off wins in its last seven games. The most recent of those came Tuesday when Pablo Sandoval ended a 13-inning contest against the Chicago Cubs with a home run to left field:

All the Giants' winning hasn't been for naught. They've climbed from last place to second place in the National League West and to within three games of the NL's second wild-card spot.

In short, they're suddenly contenders on the eve of the July 31 trade deadline. That hypothetically puts the kibosh on deals for ace starter Madison Bumgarner, relief aces Will Smith, Sam Dyson and Tony Watson and utility infielder Pablo Sandoval.

For their part, those guys don't sound like they're itching to go anywhere.

"We're on a roll," Sandoval said after Tuesday's win, per Maria Guardado of MLB.com. "We try to do our best out there. We want to win games and go out there and fight every inning."

And Bumgarner: "I feel like everybody knew we were going to win. It was just, when is it going to happen? This is probably the best stretch I've ever been a part of."

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

For these Giants, there's more than just good vibrations pushing against a massive sell-off ahead of next week's deadline. 

Between Bumgarner, Sandoval, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt and Joe Panik, quite a few stars from World Series winners in 2010, 2012 and 2014 are still around. They're also still managed by future Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy, but only through the end of this season. Clearly, now is the time for a last hurrah.

But is what's going on now truly a last hurrah? Or is it merely a last gasp?

This is, after all, a team that unceremoniously crumbled with a 172-234 record between the start of 2017 and June 29 of this season. And as MLB.com's Mike Petriello (using figures from FanGraphs) noted Monday, the last few weeks have done little to improve their playoff odds:

The good news is that the Giants' odds of making the postseason have improved since then. The less good news is that they've only gone up to 6.7 percent.

And that's just to make the playoffs, period. To make it as far as the National League Division Series, the Giants' odds are 2.8 percent. To win that round? Just 0.8 percent. To win the National League Championship Series? Only 0.3 percent.

The World Series? Try 0.1 percent.

This is where the Giants might be inclined to be the Han Solo to our C-3PO and deny the odds altogether. After all, being underdogs suited them just fine when they won it all in '10, '12 and '14.

But unlike in those three seasons, the straightest path to the NLDS is all but cut off. The Giants are saddled with a 14.5-game deficit to a buzzsaw of a Los Angeles Dodgers team in the NL West. That gives them little recourse but to fight for a playoff berth that would only guarantee them a single game.

There's also the reality that not a single one of the aforementioned veterans is still in his prime. That ought to raise questions about the sustainability of the nice runs Bumgarner, Posey and Crawford, in particular, have been on lately.

Elsewhere on the topic of sustainability, guys such as Alex Dickerson, Austin Slater, Donovan Solano and Mike Yastrzemski have had a lot to do with the Giants' offensive surge. Solano is a 31-year-old who didn't even play in the majors in 2017 or 2018. The other three are 20-somethings enjoying either post-hype breakouts or well-timed 15 minutes.

Granted, the Giants can look forward to getting third baseman Evan Longoria and right-hander Johnny Cueto off the injured list. Yet they're two more post-prime stars, and neither is recovering from a minor injury. Longoria is out with plantar fasciitis. Cueto is coming off Tommy John surgery.

If the Giants do let the trade deadline pass without any subtractions from their major league roster, they'll effectively be putting all their chips on a house of cards. And in so doing, they will have passed by a chance to cement a foundation for something better in the not-too-distant future.

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Especially in light of the extra leverage they've gained over the last few weeks, it's high time for the Giants to cash in Bumgarner, Smith, Sandoval and potentially Watson (who has a player option for 2020) before free agency beckons this winter.

The Giants don't have to move Dyson, yet they should be able to sell high on his excellent work over the last two seasons. They might also dangle Posey, Belt and Crawford, who are getting no less expensive as they get older.

The Giants absolutely need the young talent these guys could bring back. We have their farm system ranked at No. 22 out of Major League Baseball's 30 organizations.

Moreover, its best players—e.g. catcher Joey Bart, outfielder Heliot Ramos and shortstop Marco Luciano—are in the lower levels of the minors. Sans any new blood in the next week, it figures to take years for the Giants to squeeze a core of homegrown stars out of their system.

On the bright side, this is where a compromise may be possible.

In a recent interview with Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi expressed a desire to "manage a transition and continue to compete." He might indeed have it both ways if he can flip the team's top trade chips for MLB-ready players who would be under the team's control well beyond 2019.

Such a strategy would certainly make the Giants an even longer shot for October. But if a team is going to be a longshot either way, it's better to be one that might be back to finish the job later if it doesn't get it done now.

Failing that, the Giants could lean into a now-or-never scenario in which the "never" is overwhelmingly favored over the "now." Maybe that sounds like a good time. But if it doesn't end well, it won't be worth the long hangover that would follow.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.