Way-Too-Early NBA Head Coach Hot Seat Predictions
NBA coaches have 99 professional perks, but job security ain't one.
This offseason alone, five different franchises—more than 16 percent of the league—hired new coaches. A sixth, the Minnesota Timberwolves, removed the interim tag from someone who initially earned the gig as a midseason replacement.
The coaching carousel might pause every now and then, but it never really stops. Save for the ice blocks on which Gregg Popovich, Rick Carlisle and Erik Spoelstra sit, every coaching seat in the Association has some level of heat to it.
By gauging things like contract length, team expectations and the ability to meet those goals, we have identified the five coaches most likely to feel the burn during the 2019-20 campaign.
5. Alvin Gentry, New Orleans Pelicans
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The New Orleans Pelicans hired Alvin Gentry in 2015 to get them over the hump after a 45-win season culminated in a first-round sweep at the hands of the Golden State Warriors.
His job description has changed several times since then, as has the organization at large. Jrue Holiday is the only Pelicans player with a tenure as long as Gentry's. Anthony Davis forced his way out. DeMarcus Cousins came and went. General manager Dell Demps, who hired Gentry, was axed in February before David Griffin eventually took over basketball operations.
Oh, and the Pels nabbed this year's No. 1 pick, Zion Williamson, who will presumably be their next franchise player. His development will mean more to Gentry's fate than anything, but the coach must also prove capable of maturing the club's other youngsters (including Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Jaxson Hayes) while maximizing the return on their investments in veterans Derrick Favors and JJ Redick.
The good news is Gentry has Griffin in his corner (for now, at least). The pair previously worked together on the Phoenix Suns, and Griffin already announced New Orleans has picked up its team option on Gentry's contract for the 2020-21 campaign.
"We couldn't be happier to extend our relationship with Alvin," Griffin said. "He is exactly the right coach at the right time for this franchise."
But what happens if the Pelicans stumble out of the gate? Or worse, what if Williamson can't get himself going?
New Orleans, which has one winning record over Gentry's four seasons, took an aggressive approach to its post-AD transition. The club will want to see results from that effort, be that wins, developmental progress or, ideally, both. If that doesn't happen, the 64-year-old coach could be a convenient fall guy.
4. Billy Donovan, Oklahoma City Thunder
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No Paul George. No Russell Westbrook. No contract assurances beyond 2019-20.
Billy Donovan's reality with the Oklahoma City Thunder is dramatically different now from what it was just a month ago. The Thunder were, at worst, shadow contenders led by a pair of All-Star regulars. Now, this organization has been reduced to a handful of overpriced veterans (starting with logical trade candidate Chris Paul) and a mountain of draft picks.
Even Donovan's assistant ranks were rocked this summer, as Mark Bryant, Darko Rajakovic and Bob Beyer all bolted out of the Sooner State. Beyer departed for the Sacramento Kings. Bryant and Rajakovic headed for the Phoenix Suns. Even fans in Northern California and Arizona might have a hard time convincingly dubbing them greener pastures.
But solid ground is preferable to a potentially sinking ship.
"Donovan's contract is up after next season, and two straight playoff disappointments has created no appetite for an extension, inside or outside Thunder headquarters," Berry Tramel wrote for the Oklahoman. "The staff could be looking for lifeboats already."
The potential saving grace for Donovan might be the absence of expectations. Dealing away George and Westbrook was a massive backward step. Paul could be the next domino to drop, and Danilo Gallinari could be flipped as a veteran rental.
But seats can heat up for reasons beyond the standings. With this franchise shifting its focus firmly to the future, this might be the perfect time to bring a new voice to the locker room.
3. Frank Vogel, Los Angeles Lakers
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In an otherwise splash-filled summer, the Los Angeles Lakers' hiring of Frank Vogel barely made a ripple. The reaction it did elicit wasn't exactly positive.
"No disrespect to Frank Vogel, but ... whaaaat?" Bill Plaschke wrote for the Los Angeles Times. "The Lakers have found a head coach to replace Luke Walton who recently lost more games than Walton. The Lakers have found a head coach for LeBron James whose teams were eliminated by James in the playoffs three consecutive seasons."
Nothing about Vogel's situation is comfortable.
His three-year contract doesn't suggest the strongest commitment, which makes sense when he wasn't the franchise's first or second choice. His staff features his possible replacements in Jason Kidd (now the Association's highest-paid assistant) and Lionel Hollins (former head coach of the Memphis Grizzlies and Brooklyn Nets).
The pressures of coaching LeBron James are immense, and that could be truer now than ever. The 34-year-old is racing against Father Time for another shot at title contention, and he might have his most talented co-star to date in Anthony Davis. While overseeing two elites might sound like a coach's dream, Vogel must craft an offensive strategy that brings the best out of both, and that end of the floor has never been his specialty.
Few teams, if any, are so clearly entering a championship-or-bust campaign. If Vogel, essentially a career .500 coach, doesn't seem up to the task, the Lakers could give him a quick hook.
2. Mike D'Antoni, Houston Rockets
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It should be ludicrous for Mike D'Antoni to even be on this list, let alone ranked this high. During his three seasons with the Houston Rockets, all he's done is steer them to four playoff series wins and the Association's second-best record over that stretch.
But his triumphs can't silence the many warning sirens blaring about his precarious future in Space City.
His assistant staff has mostly been shown the exits. His contract is up after 2019-20, and despite some early reports of a possible extension, that's no longer on the table.
Houston's success hasn't been enough. The Rockets are antsy to the point they made their entire roster available in trades, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, and recently swapped out Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook. In doing so, they created quite the on-court puzzle. Each is responsible for one of the two highest single-season usage rates in NBA history.
Westbrook has almost no value off the basketball. He's the worst three-point shooter ever among players with 2,500 career attempts, and he only finished 30 possessions as an off-ball cutter in 2018-19. Harden is better equipped to play off it, but doing so would take the ball away from Houston's best player.
Westbrook also spends an uncomfortable—and inefficient—amount of time in the mid-range. That's a dead zone in this offense. This past season, Westbrook himself took almost as many mid-range shots (355) as the entire Rockets team (396).
Maybe talent wins out, Houston wins big and this prediction looks absurd. But D'Antoni has so much to figure out in such little time that there are too many ways for this thing to spiral out of control.
1. Scott Brooks, Washington Wizards
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Squeezed smack dab in the middle of the proverbial rock and hard place are the final two years of Scott Brooks' contract with the Washington Wizards. Any path forward potentially leads to his demise.
With former general manager Ernie Grunfeld gone and All-Star point guard John Wall sidelined indefinitely by a ruptured Achilles, this could be the perfect time for the Wizards to initiate an organizational overhaul.
Since this roster is somehow light on both win-now talent and high-potential prospects, Washington could allow (no longer interim) general manager Tommy Sheppard to put his stamp on the team by restocking its asset collection. That would almost assuredly mean Bradley Beal is gone, and youth would become the focus.
Would Brooks, originally hired to take this team over the hump, even make sense at that point?
Of course, the alternative might be even more dire. Maybe the Wizards can't read the writing on the wall and think this club can compete despite Wall's injury and the offseason departures of Tomas Satoransky, Bobby Portis, Trevor Ariza and Jeff Green. That approach alone could seal Brooks' fate should Washington fail to meet unrealistic expectations.
The Wizards are in a tricky spot. They can offer Beal a three-year, $111 million extension on July 26, and they plan to do so, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. Depending on how he responds, they might have to consider moving their only All-Star. That, or they'll scramble to put a significantly improved supporting cast around the 26-year-old.
Either option seems precarious for the organization as a whole, but especially for its coach.
Unless noted otherwise, statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
