Home Run Derby 2019: Full Bracket, Format and Predictions for MLB All-Star Event

A new Home Run Derby champion will be crowned Monday night at Progressive Field. 

The majority of the eight participants in the 2019 edition of the contest have not competed in the event in their careers, and none of them have won it.

After Christian Yelich had to remove himself from the competition with a back injury Sunday, Pete Alonso of the New York Mets enters with the most home runs in the field. 

In three of the last four years, the Home Run Derby champion has come from the National League, and two of those victors won in their home stadiums. 

With Yelich's withdrawal, there are four competitors from each league and one from the Cleveland Indians looking to keep the run of host winners going. 

Full Bracket

(1) Matt Chapman vs. (8) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 

(4) Alex Bregman vs. (5) Joc Pederson

(3) Josh Bell vs. (6) Ronald Acuna Jr. 

(2) Pete Alonso vs. (7) Carlos Santana

Format

The Home Run Derby champion will be decided through three rounds, with the top hitters from each side of the bracket squaring off in the final. 

In each round, the players have four minutes to hit as many home runs as possible. If they hit two home runs over 440 feet, they receive an additional 30 seconds. 

Each hitter is also allowed a 45-second timeout, with two of them available during the final round. 

In case of a tie, a 90-second swing off will occur. If the tie is not broken by that, the winner will be decided by three swings, and if a victor is still not determined, it will come down to sudden death. 

Predictions

Chapman Struggles as Yelich's Replacement 

Matt Chapman, who was announced as Yelich's replacement Sunday, enters in a tough spot after having little time to prepare for the competition. 

Ben Margot/Associated Press

The majority of the participants have had close to a week to work on strategy and simulate the competition with their respective pitchers. 

Not only does Chapman come in with that disadvantage, but he has also not hit a home run since the start of July. 

The Oakland slugger did end June with home runs in back-to-back games, but he also experienced long gaps between his six homers last month. 

Chapman will not be facing an easy first-round matchup, either, when he lines up against Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 

Guerrero is one of the more powerful hitters in the competition, and there is a good chance he receives some advice on how to handle the competition since his father won it in 2007. 

Conversely, Chapman could come into the event loose and surprise us, and he does have 21 home runs to his name this season, after all.

However, he has plenty going against him Monday. 

Santana Benefits From Home-Field Advantage

Carlos Santana holds a distinct advantage over the three other sluggers in his half of the bracket. 

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

The 33-year-old has played nine of his 10 seasons in the majors at Progressive Field, while the other three are National League hitters who rarely visit the stadium in Cleveland. 

In 2019, Santana has hit 12 of his 18 home runs inside his home stadium and his slugging percentage is 57 percentage points higher than it is on the road. 

Since he is aware of the intricacies of the stadium, he should be able to be more efficient with strategy over four minutes.

Santana's first-round opponent, Alonso, has never played the Indians or inside Progressive Field. And his potential second-round opponents do not have much prior experience hitting in Cleveland, either. 

Josh Bell has three hits in 11 career plate appearances in Cleveland, while Ronald Acuna Jr. has three hits in 14 plate appearances at Progressive Field. 

Also going in Santana's favor are the victories by Todd Frazier in 2015 and Bryce Harper in 2018 in their home parks. 

Santana has a clear advantage, but players hitting in their home park in the Home Run Derby have not had a full bill of success since Wil Myers (2016) and Justin Bour (2017) failed to make it out of the first round. 

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Statistics obtained from Baseball Reference