Splashy Lakers Signing Would Signify New Era of Risk for Kawhi Leonard
Kawhi Leonard has three good options in free agency, and though we can't be sure he'll make the best choice, there's no doubt the Los Angeles Lakers would be the most interesting one.
By agreeing to sign with the Lakers, Leonard could open up the widest possible spectrum of future outcomes.
If he wants stability and a long-term plan, Leonard should choose the Los Angeles Clippers. If familiarity, assured title contention and the weight of a nation supporting him are priorities, he will probably pick the Toronto Raptors.
But the highest ceiling and lowest floor? The most attention and controversy? Unsurpassed intrigue? The chance to blast into orbit or crash spectacularly back to earth as part of the best three-player combination ever assembled?
That's what Leonard would sign up for by choosing the Lakers.
L.A.'s roster could then include three of the league's top six healthy players (arguably, because everything's arguable). LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Leonard rank seventh, ninth and first, respectively, in win shares per 48 minutes over the last four seasons. In 2018-19, four players averaged at least 25.0 points and 7.0 rebounds while posting an effective field-goal percentage north of 53 percent.
The Lakers could have three of those guys.
This level of star alignment would be unprecedented, but the concept of quickly assembled, highly concentrated talent isn't unfamiliar for the Lakers. The comparison does a disservice to the trio that will take the floor in 2019-20, but it wasn't so long ago that L.A. thought it had assembled another unstoppable triad.
In 2012, Dwight Howard and Steve Nash joined Kobe Bryant. For a variety of reasons—ill-fitting personalities and injuries chief among them—that trio flamed out in short order. We're now dealing with three players much closer to their primes than the guys involved in the Lakers' last attempt at this kind of roster building. But whatever uncertainty superior talent removes, it replaces with pressure.
When you've got three players of this caliber on one roster, it means a title expectation rises to the level of demand. Considering all the Lakers sacrificed to reach this point, the frustration of a potential failure would be immense. High tension would be inevitable.
While it's possible sheer talent would eliminate some of the intrigue, and while it shouldn't surprise anyone if the Lakers reeled off 60-plus wins en route to a championship, there's still so much that could go wrong.
How would James, Leonard and Davis fit together? It's true LeBron and AD form one of the most imposing pick-and-roll tandems imaginable, but what's Leonard supposed to do while they work? Stand on the wing and watch?
Maybe we're getting too deep into the weeds here, but the idea that factions would form is hard to ignore. If there's any on-court friction, might James and Davis, a pair of Klutch clients, align against Leonard? Perhaps no divide would ever form, but Leonard would certainly enter an established power structure as something of an outsider.
What about health? Last year, Leonard and the Raptors micromanaged his season to a degree nobody had ever seen. Toronto got 60 regular-season games and a brilliant postseason performance from its best player, but Leonard, despite a season-long maintenance program, was still clearly hobbled in the playoffs.
James missed more time last year than ever before, and he's entering his 17th season with 46,235 regular-season minutes, most among active players. Health doesn't tend to trend up as years and miles increase.
Davis played 75 games in his last two seasons that didn't involve a trade request, so he seems to be the fittest of the three. But when a team is this top-heavy, the impact of an injury gets magnified. If any of James, Leonard or Davis goes down, a painfully thin roster gets thinner.
Don't forget the Lakers will be coached by Frank Vogel, who hasn't reached the Finals and posted a .329 winning percentage in two seasons with the Orlando Magic before being fired in 2018. He's faced offensive questions for as long as he's been in the league, and coaching James is a notoriously difficult gig. Throw in assistant coach Jason Kidd looking over Vogel's shoulder, and it's easy to imagine things will get messy—especially with the elevated pressure and lingering instability of a dysfunctional management apparatus.
The star constellation potentially created by Leonard's decision won't fix the issues with the Lakers front office and ownership group. In fact, the added scrutiny it'll bring could reveal even more flaws.
Speaking of scrutiny, it would be fascinating to see Leonard navigate a level of media attention he's never seen before. For a player who seems to prefer silence, he would sign himself up for unyielding noise.
Particulars aside, consider the league-wide impact of Leonard's signing with the Lakers. For a half-decade, certainty (or something that comes as close to it as possible in the NBA) defined the league. The Golden State Warriors sat atop the heap, seemingly unbeatable. Everyone else was stuck trying to find ways to dethrone them.
Now, the Lakers could become the league's best team. But they also could become its biggest mess. Anything is possible.
The Warriors' dissolution ended a five-year era of predictability. Welcome to what could be the age of variance and uncertainty.
Leonard can usher it in with just a decision.
