1 Free-Agent Signing Every Contender Can Make with a Title in Mind
As usual, fireworks came early for NBA fans.
Free agency opened at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, and a slew of landscape-altering maneuvers lit up the hoops world with more activity than anything you'll find on Independence Day.
These are, of course, agreed-upon maneuvers only, as any Dallas Mavericks fan could remind you. But assuming everything goes according to script, the free-agency market has already been picked apart with Kawhi Leonard lurking as the lone available elite.
Free agency is about more than the headline-grabbers, though. While clubs can't compete without a star (or stars) at their foundation, plugging the complementary pieces around the edges is an overlooked but critical part of the process.
That's where most likely contenders find themselves now: bargain-hunting for role players. A couple of them are still in hot pursuit of the last star standing.
Based on what every team appears to have, here's one signing each of our current plausible contenders should consider to strengthen their championship chances.
Boston Celtics: Tyson Chandler, C
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Pivoting from Kyrie Irving to Kemba Walker should be a seamless transition for the Boston Celtics, but that does nothing for their Al Horford-sized hole on the interior.
Adding Enes Kanter, per The Athletic's Shams Charania, addresses some of the void, but only on the offensive end. If Boston can afford to double up at the center spot with Tyson Chandler, it would help mitigate the loss of Horford on defense.
The 36-year-old Chandler has lost some bounce to Father Time, but he can still control the interior with height, length and sharp instincts. This past season, his 18th in the Association, he had the sixth-best defensive real plus-minus, per ESPN.com, and outpaced his career norm with 12.6 rebounds per 36 minutes.
Denver Nuggets: Stanley Johnson, SF
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The Denver Nuggets won 54 games last season. Their two best players are on the right side of 25 (Nikola Jokic, 24, and Jamal Murray, 22). They already have 12 guaranteed contracts on the 2019-20 books and hold two massive wild cards in Michael Porter Jr. and Bol Bol.
Their rotation would be tough to crack even for plug-and-play free agents, so the smart play might be taking a flier on another young project. Why not see if teams have missed something with Stanley Johnson, the eighth overall pick in 2015?
Assuming Denver bothered to draft up a wish list ahead of free agency, a perimeter stopper should have ranked near the top. The 6'7", 245-pound Johnson has some immovable-object appeal. He has always drawn a positive grade for defensive box plus/minus, and ESPN.com's real plus-minus viewed him as a top-12 stopper at small forward last season.
Johnson's offense would be generously described as a work in progress, but that's fine. The Nuggets were already the seventh-best team on that side, and they have ample opportunity for internal growth. Besides, if the 23-year-old had a more defined offensive game, he wouldn't fit their budget.
Golden State Warriors: Thabo Sefolosha, SG/SF
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Yet again, the Golden State Warriors snagged an All-Star. This time around, they landed scoring guard D'Angelo Russell, as first reported by The Athletic's Shams Charania, which should ensure this offense remains nightmarish for opponents whenever Klay Thompson makes it back inside the lines.
But this move came at the expense of Andre Iguodala, who was shipped off to the Memphis Grizzlies, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. Iguodala was Golden State's preferred superstar stopper over its five consecutive runs to the NBA Finals. Between his subtraction and the arrival of Russell, a limited defender, the Warriors could be in for a world of hurt at basketball's less glamorous end.
"It wouldn't be all that surprising if the Warriors fall outside the top half of the league on defense at this point, a jarring thought given how great they were on that end for several years," Chris Herring wrote for FiveThirtyEight.
The Warriors should be scrambling for stoppers, but they're now forced to scour through the bargain bin.
That could potentially put Thabo Sefolosha on their radar. He's a 40.7 percent three-point shooter over the past two seasons who finished 2018-19 ranked 31st overall and third among perimeter players in defensive real plus-minus. He's also 35 years old and coming off a season in which he averaged his fewest minutes in more than a decade, but every minimum contract candidate has his warts.
Houston Rockets: Marcus Morris, SF/PF
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So much for the Houston Rockets making dramatic changes.
Chris Paul, Clint Capela, Eric Gordon and PJ Tucker are still around. Ditto for lame-duck head coach Mike D'Antoni. Danuel House and Gerald Green re-upped Sunday, while Austin Rivers inked a new deal Monday, per Wojnarowski.
Provided Houston can assuage any hurt feelings from the public trade talks, this team is more or less set to run it back. That's not good enough. The Rockets regressed this past season, especially on defense, and this roster might need revitalizing by an external addition.
Marcus Morris would make a ton of sense. The combo forward offers a little bit of everything, and he just enjoyed a career year in field-goal shooting (44.7 percent), three-pointers (1.9 per game) and rebounds (6.1 per game). He can make open shots, brings infectious toughness to the defensive end and can even create his own offense in a pinch.
In 2011, Rockets general manager Daryl Morey liked Morris enough to take him with the 14th overall pick. Bringing him back to Space City could be the boost this team needs to launch back into the title race.
Los Angeles Lakers: Kawhi Leonard, SF
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Before free agency opened, it was worth debating whether the Los Angeles Lakers should've splurged for a third star or focused on multiple role players to complement the LeBron James-Anthony Davis duo.
That conversation has changed. Because the Lakers have (understandably) waited on Kawhi Leonard's free-agency decision, they've been out of the running for potential Plan B, C and D options. It's not just that they've missed out on stars like Jimmy Butler, Kyrie Irving and D'Angelo Russell. They've also seen high-level support pieces like JJ Redick, Brook Lopez, Trevor Ariza and Patrick Beverley come off the board.
"If they get Kawhi Leonard, they're going to be a championship contender," ESPN's Brian Windhorst said on First Take. "... But if they don't get him, I think the overwhelming majority of the players that could've really helped them are now off the board."
Adding Leonard would give the Lakers the NBA's best trio, a designation that typically defines a destiny. He's a two-time Defensive Player of the Year, a two-time Finals MVP and a perpetually improving offensive star. He just did a pretty convincing Michael Jordan impression in the postseason. Signing him would mean not only contending throughout LeBron's twilight, but also perhaps keeping the run going post-James with Davis.
Coming up short wouldn't cost L.A. its chance at contending, but its margin for error would shrink to a level requiring Herculean efforts from James and Davis. Spreading the remaining funds around middling role players would barely budge the needle.
Milwaukee Bucks: Jared Dudley, SF/PF
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The Milwaukee Bucks might have the league's ultimate shapeshifter in Giannis Antetokounmpo, but there's no such thing as too much versatility in the modern NBA.
Jared Dudley could be a perfect addition. His player profile on Basketball-Reference.com lists his position as "Small Forward and Shooting Guard and Power Forward." It also notes that 16 percent of his minutes came at the center spot last season.
He's never been an especially impressive athlete, which has necessitated his move from the wings—he was a part-time shooting guard for Milwaukee in 2014-15—toward the interior. But that has only upped his appeal. It's not like a bunch of centers can shoot 39.2 percent from three (as he has for his career) or provide 4.1 assists per 36 minutes (as he did in 2017-18).
Head coach Mike Budenholzer would appreciate Dudley's three-ball, and the 12-year veteran would appreciate players like Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez offsetting his lack of rim protection.
Philadelphia 76ers: Trey Burke, PG
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Apologies for sounding like a broken record, but the Philadelphia 76ers could use more shooting. That will be the case as long as Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons both call the City of Brotherly Love home, and it's now truer than ever with JJ Redick en route to the Big Easy.
The problem is everyone needs more shooting, which is why players like Wesley Matthews, Wayne Ellington and even Troy Daniels are all already off the board. So, the Sixers might need to get creative here.
Trey Burke isn't a sniper. His career 34.0 three-point percentage isn't even league-average. But as the saying goes, bargain-hunters can't be choosers.
That's a high enough percentage to keep defenses honest, which might be all Philly needs to let Embiid and Simmons go to work. Burke can also create shots out of isolation and soak up some backup point guard minutes. While he wouldn't be the clearest fit for addressing Philly's biggest need, he'd at least help in a couple of different areas.
Portland Trail Blazers: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG
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As good as the Portland Trail Blazers have been in recent years—102 victories over the past two seasons, seventh-most in the league—they've struggled to crack the ranks of legitimate contenders. But this summer might be their long-awaited breakthrough.
While forced to peruse the clearance section with limited assets, they've somehow managed to add Nassir Little, Kent Bazemore, Mario Hezonja and Hassan Whiteside, per Wojnarowski, while retaining Rodney Hood. Little has long-term star potential, Bazemore brings shooting, Hezonja might have untapped potential and Whiteside provides both rim protection and coverage for Jusuf Nurkic's recovery from a leg fracture.
In order to make this work, though, the team must find some forward stoppers.
The Blazers just watched their two best walk out the door, as Al-Farouq Aminu exited in free agency and Maurice Harkless went in the Whiteside swap. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could help plug some of the perimeter leaks, provided he's not outside of Portland's price range (possible landing spots are drying up quickly).
He has a better three-and-D reputation than the numbers say he should. He's been a tick below average from distance for his career (34.5 percent) and basically a breakeven defender (minus-0.2 defensive box plus/minus). But the 26-year-old has the tools to improve in both roles, and he still has time to grow.
Perhaps the biggest question is whether anyone can lure KCP, a Klutch Sports client, away from L.A.
Toronto Raptors: Kawhi Leonard, SF
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Board Man isn't rushing to get paid.
Leonard has proved just as methodical and soft-spoken in free agency as he is on the hardwood. Toronto, like his L.A. suitors, has no choice but to wait for his call. If the defending champs convince him to stay, they might be the favorites to escape the East again. If not, wholesale changes could be coming to this club sooner than later.
"His decision is franchise-changing," Fred VanVleet said on Stadium.
With Kawhi, the Raptors could have all the key ingredients back from the franchise's first championship run. Danny Green is reportedly waiting on Leonard's decision before making his own, per Marc Stein of the New York Times, which means one domino drop will likely impact 40 percent of their starting lineup.
Without Kawhi, Toronto might be forced to embrace an inevitable rebuild. Kyle Lowry and Marc Gasol are both on the wrong side of 30, and Serge Ibaka will get there before the season starts. The trio will collectively cost more than $82 million in 2019-20, the final season on each of their contracts.
It's possible the Raptors could go from champions to sellers in a matter of weeks.
Utah Jazz: JaMychal Green, PF
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The Utah Jazz are either quietly crushing the offseason or outright demolishing it. That all depends on how much attention the outside world is paying to Salt Lake City.
The Jazz needed more scoring and shot-creation around Donovan Mitchell, so they brokered a blockbuster for Mike Conley and then spent big on Bojan Bogdanovic. They couldn't afford to keep Derrick Favors, so they found a new source of toughness and interior defense in Ed Davis.
Now, they have just one remaining itch to scratch: a stretch 4. Bogdanovic can play that role, but it's not his natural spot. It is for JaMychal Green, who can make threes, defend multiple positions and even serve short stints as a small-ball 5.
The 6'9", 227-pounder set career marks in three-point makes (71) and percentage (40.3) this past season. He was one of just four players to average one three and six rebounds while shooting 40-plus percent from range, joining Danilo Gallinari, Rudy Gay and Karl-Anthony Towns.
The only departure Utah hasn't covered yet is Jae Crowder's. Green could slot in as a bigger option who's better at shooting.
Unless noted otherwise, statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
