NBA Lottery Teams Most Likely to Trade Zion Williamson If They Win No. 1 Pick
Let's make one thing clear from the jump: Zion Williamson is beyond unlikely to become trade bait. He is the NBA's consensus No. 1 pick by a galaxy-and-a-half, and whichever team wins the draft lottery will likely keep him for themselves.
NEVERTHELESS!
Potential trades are fun to discuss—especially this year. Not only does Anthony Davis' future factor ever so heavily into our what-if exercise, but this season's batch of potential draft-lottery victors are also populated with a few franchises known for short-circuiting rebuilds or just generally making against-the-grain decisions.
Please, pretty please, with sugar on top, do not interpret inclusion as an endorsement for dealing the No. 1 pick or Zion himself. But if any teams are going to consider such a drastic measure, it'd be these squads.
Notable Exclusions
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Dallas Mavericks
Odds of Landing No. 1 Pick: 6 percent
Consolidating so many of their assets into Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis (restricted) puts a certain amount of pressure on the Mavericks to rejoin the postseason discussion posthaste. They can do that with Zion Williamson.
He fits the timelines of a 20-year-old Doncic and soon-to-be 24-year-old Porzingis, and Dallas will have a path to difference-making cap space even after accounting for the No. 1 pick's salary. The pull to use Williamson as superstar bait will be appreciably stronger for others.
Miami Heat
Odds of Landing No. 1 Pick: 1 percent
Team president Pat Riley isn't one for rebuilds, and the Heat can cobble together some tantalizing Anthony Davis packages with Williamson. But they don't have enough in place to make that kind of all-in-now play.
Best-case scenario: The Heat enter next season with Davis and Josh Richardson as their two best players and a handful of undesirable contracts still on the books. They have designs on making a splash in 2020 free agency, but that summer's class isn't particularly deep. Miami cannot risk dealing Williamson for a potential rental.
Washington Wizards
Odds of Landing No. 1 Pick: 9 percent
If the Wizards weren't in the middle of a front office regime change and John Wall wasn't on track to miss most of next season, maybe they'd think about cashing in Williamson for another star.
As things stand, though, they're faaaaaar more likely to steer into a reset or run in place than they are to double-down on a nucleus that's down one superstar.
5. Chicago Bulls
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Odds of Landing No. 1 Pick: 12.5 percent
Selecting a fifth team for this trip into the hypothetical vortex proved especially difficult. The Chicago Bulls "won" out by checking so many of the boxes that could prompt a franchise to make a surprising move.
Point guard woes are part of the equation, but not all of it. Kris Dunn shouldn't head up an NBA offense, and Zach LaVine is out of his depth as anything more than a second-wheel initiator. Ryan Arcidiacono (restricted) isn't the answer. Shaquille Harrison (non-guaranteed) and Walter Lemon Jr. (non-guaranteed), while keepers following some late-season bravura, are not starter material, either.
Plugging Ja Morant into the backcourt is a winning idea. Pairing his off-ball defense with LaVine's own spaced-outness would be a disaster early on, but he'll be just 20 when next season tips off. He'll get better. His change-of-direction handles and assaults on the rim open up the floor for everyone.
This is not worth punting on Zion Williamson. Nor is the would-be frontcourt logjam. Williamson is best with the ball in his hands unless he's running the break and shot just 2-of-12 on pull-up jumpers at Duke, per Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman. He at least needs to become a reliable standstill shooter to play in tandem with Wendell Carter Jr.
Chicago shouldn't care in a vacuum. Taking Williamson and figuring out the rest later is still the best and safest play. He helps the Bulls' half-court playmaking, and they can sign a point guard. Renounce all their own free agents, and they cruise to more than $17 million in space even if they win the No. 1 pick.
And yet, the Bulls are nothing if not wild cards under general manager Gar Forman and executive vice president of basketball operations John Paxson. Williamson gives them an opening to bring Anthony Davis home to Chicago. Maybe ownership has emboldened them enough to roll the dice on a one-year recruiting pitch.
Or perhaps the Bulls are seduced into trading down. Let's say the Atlanta Hawks end up with the No. 2 pick and the Dallas Mavericks' first-rounder, which is top-five protected and can convey as high as ninth overall. Do those two selections plus Taurean Prince and another protected first convince Chicago to fork over Williamson?
Probably not. The Bulls must be infinitely high on Morant and his fit beside LaVine to pull that trigger. But Atlanta itself passed on Luka Doncic, another generational prospect, last June. Chicago's incumbent talent and roster holes could empower the front office to do something similar if presented with the opportunity.
4. Phoenix Suns
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Odds of Landing No. 1 Pick: 14 percent
Internetsmiths went wild over an out-of-context nugget from a piece on the Phoenix Suns penned by The Athletic's Sam Vecenie. So, with that in mind, let's actually consider what he wrote:
"Sources around the NBA are buzzing that [Ja] Morant is actually the player the Suns prefer to end up with. Particularly, [James] Jones is thought to be a fan of the dynamic lead guard. It’s not a surprise, given their need at the point guard position. But color me skeptical that the team would actually take him at No. 1. The financial windfall any team figures to experience by selecting [Zion] Williamson is real. He comes in ready-made not only as an elite level player, but also as a marketing tool that will bring fans out to games, create a large amount of merchandising sales, and likely even see commercial opportunities. It’s hard for me to see any owner passing that up, particularly when one is as meddlesome in basketball operations as [Robert] Sarver."
This is eons away from saying Phoenix definitely wants Morant over Williamson. The Suns are suckers for self-destruction. See: Their decision to fire head coach Igor Kokoskov after one year because they're rebuilding and initially hired him to coach a veteran roster they never actually had. But this Ja-over-Zion non-buzz is preliminary and was debunked by both Vecenie himself and John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7.
Still!
The Suns are in the same boat as the Bulls. They need a lead floor general—I will never give up on you, Elie Okobo—and their operations staff is, aside from being in perpetual limbo, unpredictable at best, so this is not out of the question.
Forget about the Anthony Davis sweepstakes. Phoenix is smarter than surrendering Williamson for a rental. But dealing down doesn't seem impossible. The Suns clearly have a strong, if overstated, affinity for Morant, and the Hawks, again, could be uniquely equipped trade partners if they're peddling their own top-three pick and Dallas' selection.
Turning Williamson into Morant and additional picks and prospects actually appeals more to Phoenix than Chicago. The Suns might be less inclined to accelerate their window, but Devin Booker's max extension kicks in next season, and they don't have the cap flexibility afforded to the Bulls.
Ferrying Kelly Oubre Jr.'s $9.6 million restricted free-agent hold prevents Phoenix from going after one of the top available point guards. It'll take a perfect storm of circumstances (Atlanta's theoretical dream scenario), but scooping up Morant and a bunch of other stuff may speak to whatever significance the Suns ascribe to prioritizing roster fit.
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3. New York Knicks
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Odds of landing No. 1 Pick: 14 percent
Go ahead and put the New York Knicks higher if you're certain they'll land two superstar free agents. They're not especially likely to keep Zion Williamson after signing—oh, I don't know, let's just randomly pick two names who aren't linked to them whatsoever—Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
That's such a specific scenario, though. The Knicks' interests in moving one of the best draft prospects in recent and semi-distant memory is predicated upon them bagging two top-10 players who will have a host of other suitors and who already play for championship contenders. Poaching superstars is not a giv—
"So sure are some executives and player agents of a Durant-Irving pairing in New York," The Athletic's Frank Isola wrote, "that one agent told The Athletic that Durant and Irving are debating on who will sign first."
All right, fine. The Knicks will sign two superstars. It's happening. (Related: It may not happen.) Williamson will be on the chopping block if they win the rights to draft him.
This begs the question: Who are they getting in exchange?
Anthony Davis, duh. Right, right, right. But that obvious pursuit isn't so simple. The Knicks have to send out around $21.6 million in any Davis trade. That amounts to most of their supporting cast after signing Durant and Irving. Think: Williamson, Kevin Knox, Dennis Smith Jr. and Frank Ntilikina or Allonzo Trier (team option), depending on who New York keeps.
Flipping the script isn't a resolution. The Knicks won't have the money to woo both Durant and Irving if they absorb Davis into cap space.
Sticking them at No. 3 is a hedge against them having a come-to-Jesus moment. They'll no doubt consider fielding a superstar skeleton crew if it means landing three of the league's 10 best players, but Williamson-plus-the-farm is a helluva price to pay.
On the flip side, they cannot fall any lower, because, well, they're the Knicks. They might contemplate moving Williamson even if they only net one star in free agency.
2. Philadelphia 76ers (via Sacramento Kings)
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Odds of landing No. 1 Pick: 1 percent
Three cheers for top-one protection!
Rerouting Zion Williamson wouldn't be the greatest look for the Philadelphia 76ers. The stench from their predraft trade-up for Markelle Fultz lingers, and they've burned through so many of their best assets over the past half-year.
At the same time, retaining Williamson would be comparably awkward. The Sixers already have two ball-dominant non-shooters in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, not to mention another two higher-usage cogs in Jimmy Butler (player option) and Tobias Harris.
Williamson is an all-thumbs fit even if Philly lets the latter two walk in free agency. Using him to flesh out the roster with a more complementary superstar and/or cast of role players is far more conducive to the incumbent core. And even that's complicated.
Parlaying Williamson into Anthony Davis is virtually impossible without including Simmons. The Sixers don't have the requisite salary-matching tools.
Guaranteeing Jonathon Simmons' contract ($5.7 million) and throwing in Jonah Bolden and Zhaire Smith, along with Williamson, leaves them about $1.4 million shy of the outbound money it'll take to get Davis. They need James Ennis to pick up his player option to smooth out the math, or they'll have to cut bait with Butler or Harris.
Going to such lengths is bittersweet—and more bitter than sweet. Davis is better suited than Williamson to play beside Embiid and Simmons, but he's not an idealistic running mate. It would behoove the Sixers to explore alternative trades.
Good luck finding one. Damian Lillard is the perfect point guard for Philly's aspiring superteam, but the Portland Trail Blazers no longer qualify for Breakup Watch. Bradley Beal works, but he isn't worth Williamson on his own and becomes redundant if Butler and Harris stick around. Philly can move Simmons instead, but Williamson isn't any better off next to Embiid.
Sniffing around Paul George makes all kinds of sense if the Oklahoma City Thunder go nuclear after their first-round exit, but the Sixers need to send out more than $26.3 million to grease the wheels. That doesn't happen without using Simmons (or Embiid) as an anchor.
Complications and all, the Sixers belong at No. 2. Winning the draft lottery is a problem worth having, but it's still a problem. Williamson doesn't jibe with what's already in place, and what's already in place is too far along to tear down.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
6 of 6
Odds of Landing No. 1 Pick: 2 percent
In the event the Los Angeles Lakers are treated to a draft-lottery miracle, giving up Zion Williamson runs counter to what they're telling head coaching candidates.
As ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin said on ESPN 710 LA's The Sedano Show (h/t Silver Screen & Roll's Christian Rivas):
"I've heard that some of the discussion that the coaching candidates have had with Lakers management has been [directed] more-so towards their plans for free agency this summer versus their plans to change their roster via trade. And so, if they're not going to go for a roster-shaping trade this year and it's gotta be through free agency...you either show up or you don't. And if you don't, the consequence is: It could create a really tough situation to live in if you're LeBron James. So I think precarious is the best way to describe [the situation]."
This may be true in the interim, sort of like it was true last fall when the Lakers first signed LeBron. They were going to be patient. He was going to be patient. It didn't happen.
Process was the Lakers' great facade. Their season spiraled beyond repair in the face of all-consuming Anthony Davis trade rumors. That urgency to improve the roster at the expense of the youngsters isn't going away no matter how well Los Angeles fares in free agency.
Patience is the collateral damage of having James. Next year is his age-35 season. He isn't waiting out Williamson's learning curve. He doesn't have that kind of time.
Winning the draft lottery does let the Lakers pivot back into a more gradual rebuild. Trading LeBron won't seem so ridiculous after lucking into an 18-year-old prodigy. But it would still seem sort of ridiculous.
The Lakers didn't sign James just to backtrack a year later. If they're gifted the No. 1 pick, Williamson is as good as a Pelican gone.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Andrew Bailey.
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