The One Player Every Team Should Shop at 2019 NBA Trade Deadline
The most hectic period of the NBA season has arrived.
Wheeling and dealing becomes commonplace as teams jockey for position, whether competing to sneak into the playoffs, attempting to assert themselves as true challengers for the Larry O'Brien Trophy or fostering a tank that will lead to better odds in the Zion Williamson sweepstakes. And if the actual trades submitted to the league office seem to occur with shocking frequency, the speed at which the rumor mill churns is even more jarring.
Blink, and you'll miss something. Run to your local coffee shop for a pick-me-up latte, and you could be hopelessly behind before the drink cools down enough for the first sip.
Fortunately, we've got you covered. Not by predicting what will actually come to pass but by revealing the players each team should think about shopping before the deadline is behind them.
Shopping is not akin to actually trading these contributors, but at least floating them out there on the trade market can often go a long way.
No Moves Necessary
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Boston Celtics
Why would the Celtics dip into their veritable war chest of assets at this stage?
Based on the stipulations surrounding Rose Rule contracts, they can't acquire Anthony Davis without dealing Kyrie Irving in that very transaction, and no one else on the market would lift their ceiling too much higher. They're already a legitimate contender in the Eastern Conference, buoyed by star power at the top and remarkable depth throughout the roster.
If Terry Rozier were enjoying a stellar encore to last year's performance, the C's might do their due diligence and shop him around before he hits restricted free agency in the coming offseason. But that would still leave a glaring void behind Irving.
If Marcus Morris weren't so vital to the cause, he might be offloaded for monetary purposes. But this roster works how it is, and it'll only get better as the youngsters continue to develop and Gordon Hayward (maybe) finds his pre-injury form.
Unless Irving throws a wrench in the plans, that is.
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks just landed Kristaps Porzingis from the New York Knicks. They can reasonably sit back and rest on their laurels until the trade deadline passes.
Also cementing their inclusion here?
They don't have any more high-upside youngsters whom they should be willing to move, as Luka Doncic is entirely untouchable and Dennis Smith Jr. is no longer a part of the organization. They're also out of first-round picks until at least 2025 after dealing 2021 and 2023 selections for their new star, per The Athletic's Michael Scotto. Finally, they shouldn't be tempted to make any plays as a buyer, since losing Wesley Matthews and DeAndre Jordan doesn't exactly help their ability to remain competitive in the brutal Western Conference playoff race while Porzingis continues his ACL rehabilitation.
Dallas already made its big—and probably only—splash.
Denver Nuggets
This changes if the Nuggets decide to get involved in the Anthony Davis sweepstakes. But strange as it may be to consider acquiring a top-five player an ill-advised idea, it may well be a shortsighted one if landing the unibrowed frontcourt standout requires gutting the youthful roster without a guaranteed contract extension.
Right now, Nikola Jokic deserves to reside on the fringes of the MVP race, and he's surrounded by a solid young core that largely complements his unique skill set.
Even if the Nuggets might be tempted to part with Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Will Barton, Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez, Michael Porter Jr., Monte Morris, Isaiah Thomas, Mason Plumlee or someone else entirely (side note: goodness, the Mile High City lays claim to a ridiculous number of high-quality rotation players), they'd be better served holding tight and capitalizing on a current level of play that features a still-higher ceiling.
Only three teams have a higher net rating than Denver's 5.8 as we near the trade deadline, and that's without Porter or Thomas logging a single minute. If they can add anything...
Golden State Warriors
Seriously? The Golden State Warriors should fix what ain't broken?
The Stephen Curry-Klay Thompson-Kevin Durant-Draymond Green-DeMarcus Cousins quintet is already clicking as the uber-talented big man finds his sea legs following his lengthy Achilles rehabilitation. In 54 minutes over the course of five games, it's obliterating opponents to the tune of a 27.1 net rating that might only get better as the on-court chemistry inevitably improves.
Throw in Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, Kevon Looney and a host of useful sidekicks who know their roles within the Golden State organization, and the Warriors have no reason to make any alterations.
Los Angeles Clippers
Even if they emerge from the morass of mid-level teams in the Western Conference and earn a playoff berth, the Clippers aren't going to strive for anything of true significance in 2018-19. But they should remain competitive anyway, proving to all free-agency candidates that they boast a solid foundation and are just a hop, skip and a jump away from reaching that proverbial next level. (Important reminder: Kawhi Leonard would qualify as a hop, skip, jump and leap.)
Tempting as it may be to trade Boban Marjanovic, Milos Teodosic or one of the other men buried on the bench of head coach Doc Rivers, depth is important for a team-by-committee approach without any All-Stars. The wrong injury could otherwise doom them.
Plus, only Danilo Gallinari, Avery Bradley, Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jerome Robinson, Sindarius Thornwell and Tyrone Wallace are even under contract for 2019-20, accounting for a total of $60,302,950. Preserving that cap space for this summer's spending frenzy is of paramount importance.
Portland Trail Blazers
Prior to the pre-deadline deal for Rodney Hood, which involved the Blazers dealing two second-round picks, Nik Stauskas and Wade Baldwin IV to the Cleveland Cavaliers, Rip City would've been among the most questionable inclusions in this section. It could reasonably sell off some veteran pieces for future assets or use a few youngsters to gain one more capable rotation member, but everything was just too much of a stretch.
That's especially true now, as no further movement should be expected.
Would Meyers Leonard and Zach Collins really bring in a game-changing talent who makes the Blazers more of a threat to play spoiler in the tough Western Conference? Can they really slough off Evan Turner's contract without also including a sweetener? Do they really want to deal another emerging contributor such as Jake Layman when this team is currently claiming home-court advantage in the first round of the postseason?
Portland could potentially talk itself into a number of different scenarios, but this roster, already shuffled around slightly, is now perfectly constructed to stand pat at the deadline.
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors do have some legitimate needs—namely, three-point shooting, another bench big and an additional shot-creating threat. But none of those desires should be pressing enough to disassemble a rotation that's working so well, even while Kawhi Leonard takes some "load management" days and Jonas Valanciunas recovers from a thumb injury.
Unlike previous iterations that engendered pessimism come playoff time, these Raptors have a singular superstar ready to take over the scoring burden in crunch-time situations and no longer rely on the tough shot-making of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.
They're still remarkably deep across the board, especially after the additions of Chris Boucher and Patrick McCaw. Moreover, they're currently sitting at Nos. 7 and 9 in offensive and defensive rating, respectively. Only the Celtics, Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks join them as top-10 outfits on both ends.
Count these new-look Raptors as another team that fits into the "don't mess with a good thing" category.
Offloading Disgruntled Players
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Milwaukee Bucks: Thon Maker
As ESPN.com's Adrian Wojnarowski reported, Thon Maker is ready for a new home:
"The representative for Milwaukee Bucks center Thon Maker has told management that he would prefer the franchise to trade Maker to a team that would provide a larger role for the former lottery pick, league sources told ESPN on Saturday.
"As Maker's playing time has diminished under new coach Mike Budenholzer in the Bucks' surge to the NBA's best record, agent Mike George and Milwaukee general manager Jon Horst have discussed trade scenarios in recent weeks that would potentially make sense for both the player and team, league sources said."
This is an easy one.
The Bucks have played like the NBA's best team for the entirety of the 2018-19 season, earning the No. 1 net rating with 2.7 points per 100 possessions to spare. Maker, meanwhile, has played just 11.7 minutes per game in his 35 appearances, struggling his way to a per-game line of 4.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.3 steals and 0.5 blocks while slashing 44.0/33.3/54.1.
A fresh start would do him good, wouldn't hurt the Bucks (who'd otherwise have ended up in the "no moves necessary" category) and could foster a reload of the franchise coffers with another useful asset.
New York Knicks: Enes Kanter
Some players quietly request trades rather than letting any drama play out in the public spotlight. Enes Kanter is not among that group.
"[If] it was a road game, I understand. But it's a home game, and the fans wanted to see me out here. And they were chanting. I felt bad I couldn't go out there and help my teammates and the organization," the big man said, per Marc Berman of the New York Post, after his fourth consecutive DNP, this time against the Charlotte Hornets in Madison Square Garden. He continued:
"You can't go out there and help the fans because they're paying so much money to come watch us. They want to see me out there. When they don't, they start to get pissed. They want me to be out there."
That was before he returned to action and dramatically kissed the hardwood.
To his credit, Kanter doesn't seem liable to create any major distractions for a team that's already jetting toward the bottom of the NBA totem pole. As relayed by Berman, "If I don't get traded, I'm here. As long as I'm here, I'm part of the Knicks family. I just have to do my job to help the young guys."
But at this point, especially in the aftermath of the Kristaps Porzingis trade that makes it abundantly clear a new era is coming, New York should take literally anything it can get for him before traveling down buyout avenue.
Deadline Buyers
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Houston Rockets: Brandon Knight
As evidenced by James Harden's remarkable scoring binge, the Rockets need more players who can shoulder the load. Chris Paul's return to the lineup helps, and so too will the eventual reintegration of Clint Capela, who will now have to compete for a share of his minutes with an inspired Kenneth Faried. But the rotation as a whole is a shallow one, forcing lackluster contributors into major roles.
So, why Brandon Knight?
It's not just that Knight doesn't factor into the regular rotation employed by head coach Mike D'Antoni, though it certainly doesn't hurt that the oft-injured floor general has suited up just 12 times this season and played fewer than 10 minutes in his average appearance. He also makes $14.6 million in 2018-19, and that could be important for salary-balancing purposes in any trade conversation.
Essentially, moving Knight would guarantee that the Rockets are getting another impact contributor, even if they might also have to include a sweetener to get the other organization to accept his $15.6 million salary in 2019-20.
Indiana Pacers: Kyle O'Quinn
Kyle O'Quinn is a legitimately talented player, and he also doubles as an expiring contract who wouldn't hurt another team if he failed to pan out after changing locations. He's spent minimal time on the floor for the Pacers, but he's only a year removed from making a two-way impact with the New York Knicks and is still averaging 14.5 points, 11.9 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 2.7 blocks per 36 minutes—numbers matched by no one in NBA history who's played more than three minutes in a full season—while shooting 47.3 percent from the field and 90.0 percent at the stripe.
O'Quinn just doesn't have an opportunity in Indiana. He's stuck behind Myles Turner (a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year threat) and Domantas Sabonis (a legitimate Sixth Man of the Year/Most Improved Player threat), and that's not changing anytime soon.
If the Pacers can swap him for a shot-creating guard who can help mitigate the impact of Victor Oladipo's season-ending quad tendon injury, they'll be a lot more dangerous in the playoffs. Keeping together the same core and letting this useful player rot on the bench just wouldn't have the same impact.
Los Angeles Lakers: Josh Hart
If you want, feel free to replace Josh Hart with another core member of the Lakers' youth movement. Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Kyle Kuzma all have higher ceilings and tend to be thought of more favorably, but it's highly improbable any power play involves just one of the youngsters. Hart is listed only because he's the most likely throw-in (for lack of a better term) in a package built around one of the other three.
Yes, we're talking about Anthony Davis.
One issue does exist, though. According to Adrian Wojnarowski during a Wednesday appearance on NBA Countdown (h/t The Render and SLAM), the New Orleans Pelicans don't have much interest in trading the all-world big to the Purple and Gold. For now, at least.
Dangle Hart alongside other pieces and hope that changes. That's the best plan for deadline upgrades, or else the Lakers will likely be playing the buyout market and hoping to make do with the current core.
Philadelphia 76ers: Markelle Fultz
Let's turn to ESPN.com's Tim Bontemps for another report:
"If Philadelphia chooses to upgrade the roster over the next nine days, pursuing both of those things to supplement its starters will be at the top of the agenda. Atlanta Hawks big man Dewayne Dedmon has drawn the 76ers' interest, sources tell ESPN. He would bring athleticism and defense, along with shooting.
"But to get him, the 76ers would likely have to do something they have so far been resistant to, per sources: trading 2017 No. 1 pick Markelle Fultz."
Dealing Markelle Fultz would be painful, especially for a return as marginal as Dewayne Dedmon. Though the Atlanta Hawks center can contribute on both ends of the floor and spaces out the court with his perimeter shooting (36.8 percent on 3.1 attempts per game), he doesn't exactly have a lofty ceiling and is working on a contract that expires at the end of the current campaign.
If parlaying Fultz into present production is possible, Philadelphia should pull the lever and make it happen. Regardless of his health and mentality on the basketball court, he's a questionable fit alongside Ben Simmons until (unless?) he can shoot. The Sixers might as well strike while he's still perceived as having some enduring value.
San Antonio Spurs: Jakob Poeltl
If Jakob Poeltl is no longer on the San Antonio roster in mid-February, that means the Spurs have upgraded at the 5. It's as simple as that.
Maybe they've landed Nikola Vucevic from the Orlando Magic, giving LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan another go-to scorer who can draw away defensive attention. Perhaps they've gone after Marc Gasol, either pairing him with his older brother or taking part in a second sibling swap that leaves the team more dangerous on both ends of the floor.
Poeltl, as one of the few expendable youngsters with untapped upside on the San Antonio roster, would likely be involved in either situation. And if he's not, the Spurs will be standing pat, just as they've seemed to do at so many deadlines during the Gregg Popovich era.
Utah Jazz: Ricky Rubio
"Memphis' Mike Conley Jr. and Washington's Otto Porter Jr. are among the names reportedly being thrown around in Jazz land as possible targets. But as the Twitter general managers debate and numerous reports surface, Ricky Rubio sees his name being thrust into potential deals without much emotion," Eric Woodyard recently penned for the Deseret News. Later on, Marc Stein of the New York Times confirmed that the Jazz and Memphis Grizzlies have had "exploratory discussions" about a swap centered on the two point guards.
Assuming trades built around Rubio and one of those two targets don't involve Utah parting with many other pieces of significance, that would be great news in both situations. Just to put things in perspective, Bleacher Report's Dan Favale and I recently placed Conley at No. 22 and Porter at No. 82 in our rankings of the league's top 100 players.
Rubio, mired in a season that's seeing him slash just 40.2/32.8/84.9, didn't even make the cut.
He's still important enough to the team that he'd only leave to reel in an impact addition. But that would be good news, even for a team that's heading into the trade deadline en fuego.
Selling Low-End Pieces
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Miami Heat: Wayne Ellington
By design, the Miami Heat have collected a veritable boatload of useful players at the expense of landing true stars. They've overpaid for mediocrity in some situations, locking in capable rotation members to lengthy pacts that limit the South Beach ceiling and simultaneously elevate the floor. The natural casualties here are veterans who might typically deserve to play but can't get onto the floor because too many warm bodies are capable of logging minutes.
Wayne Ellington qualifies as such.
Last year, Ellington tormented adversaries with his constant movement away from the primary action, scoring a career-high 11.2 points per game while shooting 39.2 percent from downtown on 7.5 attempts per game—a whopping 82.7 percent of his overall field-goal attempts. That skill hasn't gone anywhere. it's instead just been buried on the bench as the 31-year-old has played in just 10 contests since the beginning of December.
Someone can surely use a player with Ellington's skill set, even if that's not the Heat.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Tolliver
Though Anthony Tolliver remains a player worthy of receiving run on the back end of a competitive rotation (see: floor-spacing ability), he's fallen out of favor in Minnesota. The Timberwolves boast quite a few useful forwards and bigs (even while Robert Covington recovers from a bone bruise in his right knee), and the playing time just isn't there for the 33-year-old.
Earlier in the year, Tolliver was consistently knocking down shots but failing to get much run under ex-head coach Tom Thibodeau. Now, he's playing with more frequency (not during games, but in terms of how frequently he even gets on the floor) under interim head coach Ryan Saunders, but the new schemes aren't squeezing out any of his offensive talents.
Someone should be able to find a use for a stretch 4 knocking down 38.1 percent of his triples, particularly while he's just one year removed from connecting at a 43.6 percent clip for the Detroit Pistons in 2017-18.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Patrick Patterson
Remember when Patrick Patterson signed a three-year, $16.4 million contract with the Thunder during the 2017 offseason, and it seemed like a tremendous bargain for the perennially underrated and overlooked power forward?
Well, the Thunder keep doing their darnedest to make sure Patterson no longer seems like a value. He played just 15.5 minutes per game during his first go-round in the Sooner State, and his playing time has actually decreased in the follow-up campaign. With Jerami Grant and Nerlens Noel thriving—plus the team turning to plenty of small-ball outfits that leave him on the pine—he just can't develop any semblance of a rhythm.
That said, Patterson is still on a reasonable deal, whether he opts out for the allure of free agency this summer or picks up a cheap option. He's still only 29 years old. He can still contribute in plenty of non-glamorous roles, especially if a team doesn't need him to function as a scorer.
The Thunder don't need to do much at this year's deadline, but they might as well see if a rival organization is willing to throw them a bone on a Patterson flier.
Phoenix Suns: Troy Daniels
Let's rewind and look at each of the last six seasons:
- 2013-14: 48.0 percent on 5.0 attempts per game
- 2014-15: 36.4 percent on 2.5 attempts per game
- 2015-16: 48.4 percent on 2.8 attempts per game
- 2016-17: 38.9 percent on 5.3 attempts per game
- 2017-18: 40.0 percent on 5.8 attempts per game
- 2018-19: 39.2 percent on 3.6 attempts per game
Is there any doubt about Troy Daniels' three-point stroke? At his worst, he's shot with solid per-minute volume and maintained league-average efficiency levels. At his best, he's quietly functioned as one of the league's most effective snipers.
That talent isn't particularly useful in Phoenix, where the 27-year-old has been buried on the bench behind Devin Booker and a host of youngsters with untapped upside. But a contender could easily convince itself of his value to a bench in need of another 40 percent sniper.
Sacramento Kings: Zach Randolph
Can Zach Randolph still contribute to a squad chasing after a postseason berth? Your guess is as good as mine.
The artist formerly known as Z-Bo isn't dealing with any listed injuries and is still under contract for the 2018-19 season ($11.7 million before becoming an unrestricted free agent this offseason), but the Sacramento Kings haven't played him at all. Literally. He's logged a grand total of zero minutes for the Western Conference squad still claiming a winning record and remaining alive in the playoff hunt.
Selling Randolph as a legitimate contributor will be a tough endeavor at this stage. But the Kings could at least strive to capitalize on the young, cheap nature of their key players by absorbing a two-year deal from a team looking to clean up the books for the 2019 offseason, particularly because doing so would likely usher another future asset into the Sacramento stockpile.
Selling Mid-Level Pieces
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Atlanta Hawks: Dewayne Dedmon
The Atlanta Hawks have no reason to do anything other than turn the keys over to the youngsters. Trae Young, John Collins, Kevin Huerter and future draft picks serve as the foundation of this franchise's future, which makes any and all veterans expendable. Shopping Kent Bazemore, Jeremy Lin, Taurean Prince (if you're not sold on his upside, which, frankly, you shouldn't be) and Dewayne Dedmon is simply the sensible decision.
But given Bazemore's difficulty remaining healthy and his prolonged shooting slump, Dedmon is the best candidate to bring back a sizable return—either an intriguing prospect such as Markelle Fultz, as covered earlier, or some draft-day assets.
The big man would likely settle in as a first big off the bench for a contender, but his combination of interior defense and three-point ability would make him useful in any scheme. Even if he's prone to getting beat off the bounce, he can recover with solid timing and his long arms. Even if he doesn't create many of his own shots, he's knocking down 36.8 percent of his 3.1 shots per game from outside the rainbow.
Brooklyn Nets: Allen Crabbe
Raise your hand if you think Allen Crabbe, coming off a season in which he's posting his worst box plus/minus since his rookie season, will turn down an $18.5 million player option for 2019-20.
Anyone? Someone? Bueller? Bueller?
Crabbe might keep getting minutes out of sheer necessity in Brooklyn, but that doesn't mean he should be viewed as a long-term piece. Caris LeVert will return to the lineup eventually, and the D'Angelo Russell-Spencer Dinwiddie pairing should be the primary backcourt contributors of the future. Even if moving him now diminishes the team's depth while it deals with injuries, alleviating the financial burden is more valuable during the ongoing rebuild.
Charlotte Hornets: Frank Kaminsky
Rather than pursuing perpetual mediocrity, the Charlotte Hornets need to play the long game. Kemba Walker's free-agency decision likely won't change because the Queen City representatives barely sneak into the Eastern Conference playoffs with a sub-.500 record. It might, however, favor the franchise if he sees a commitment to the future, even if that means taking a slight step backward in the present.
As Sporting News' Sean Deveney reported, Frank Kaminsky may give the Hornets an opportunity to do exactly that:
"Now, league sources tell Sporting News, the Hornets may finally be ready to include Kaminsky in a trade ahead of his coming restricted free agency. Given the way things have gone for him in Charlotte this year, he would likely welcome a change of scenery.
"Teams have expressed interest, including some contenders, but the Hornets would most prefer to put the money remaining on Kaminsky’s $3.6 million deal with another big salary. Charlotte, according to league sources, is desperate to get out of the two years and $52 million remaining on Nicolas Batum’s salary, and at least one team was told that Kaminsky could be had if Batum were included."
The best-case scenario involves packaging Kaminsky and Nicolas Batum together, thereby getting another piece and clearing up future cap space for an offseason addition. But the Wisconsin product is the pick here because of the increased likelihood that he, not Batum, could be sent away all on his lonesome, not saddled with a ginormous contract but still able to boost the productivity of a competitive bench.
Chicago Bulls: Jabari Parker
Since working his way out of the doghouse and suiting up in a. Jan. 12 contest against the Utah Jazz, Jabari Parker has is putting up stellar offensive numbers, even if they've come without any semblance of defensive effort and while his Chicago Bulls have gone just 2-7.
Parker still isn't part of the future in the Windy City. He's struggled too much for one hot stretch to make him a prominent part of the plans, especially now that Lauri Markkanen is back in action and should eventually fill the go-to offensive role alongside Zach LaVine. But by finding twine with impressive frequency and rekindling the belief that he can function as an offensive threat in the Association, this Duke product might have made a trade possible.
No one will give Chicago a king's ransom for Parker's services, even though he can be viewed as an expiring contract with a team option that, realistically, won't be picked up for 2019-20. But a contender might throw a second-round pick and matching salaries at the Bulls, hoping to add some bench-bound offensive upside for the postseason adventure.
Detroit Pistons: Stanley Johnson
Should the Detroit Pistons, spurred on by the putridity of the Eastern Conference, fancy themselves buyers, they'd be doing themselves a disservice by going all-in for the remainder of the 2018-19 season. This team has a limited ceiling even when Blake Griffin is balling out, featuring a dearth of steady point guard play and myriad problems scattered throughout the roster.
Instead, the Pistons should take advantage of whichever team is willing to buy into the enduring potential of a 22-year-old Stanley Johnson, who's averaging a meager 7.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.0 steals and 0.3 blocks while slashing 37.3/26.3/79.2 as a fourth-year professional.
For all his enduring physical talent, his offensive shortcomings have still prevented him from becoming an effective player, and the Pistons see their net rating plummet 6.8 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor.
If another front office thinks it can rehabilitate the No. 8 pick of the 2015 draft and turn him into a productive player, Detroit should be more than happy to acquiesce before he hits restricted free agency this summer.
Selling High-End Pieces
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Cleveland Cavaliers: Kevin Love
Yes, Kevin Love remains a high-end piece.
Even though he's played in just four games this season, missing the remainder of the calendar with a toe injury that necessitated surgery, he's only one year removed from averaging 17.6 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.7 assists while slashing 45.8/41.5/88.0. Those volume numbers may not stand out much, but he filled his role admirably alongside LeBron James and even carried the Cavaliers to a 1.2 net rating when operating without the now-departed superstar, per PBPStats.com.
That said, moving him will be tough.
Love is still on the mend, and he didn't shoot particularly well in his four-game stint (32.3 percent from the field and 29.2 percent from downtown). He's also operating on the final go-round of his old pact with a four-year, $120 million contract ready to kick in next season. Acquiring him requires a significant financial commitment and necessitates sending a lot of money back in Cleveland's direction—something a competitive squad looking for an impact piece might be hesitant to do unless it lays claim to a monetary albatross.
But given the full-scale rebuild that needs to take place in Northeast Ohio, the Cavaliers would be remiss to not at least shop Love around and see if someone bites.
Memphis Grizzlies: Mike Conley
This could easily be Marc Gasol, as the end of the big man's lengthy Beale Street tenure feels imminent. Even if he's not dealt before the deadline, the Grizzlies could hope he turns down a player option for 2019-20 to hit free agency, or they could look to place him on the block as an expiring contract during the offseason.
But for two primary reasons, Mike Conley is the better choice here.
First, moving him would better facilitate an unabashed tank for one of the top picks in the 2019 NBA draft and potentially land better future assets. Even if it doesn't currently look like the 20-32 Grizzlies need much help in the race to the bottom of the standings, losing the all-important point guard would be a massive setback, fundamentally altering everything the team tries to do on the scoring end.
Second, he's owed a lot more money. Even if Gasol opts into the final year of his current contract, he'd "only" be owed $25.6 million after the conclusion of this season. Conley, however, will make $32.5 million next season before gaining access to an early termination option for $34.5 million that he's almost guaranteed to pick up.
Which of those expenditures would you rather strike from the ledger?
Orlando Magic: Nikola Vucevic
Trading Nikola Vucevic would be painful, especially now that he's a first-time All-Star in the midst of a career season.
Despite the Magic surrounding him with precious few offensive talents capable of drawing defensive attention, he's thriving from all over the half-court set and still continuing to play steady, underrated defense of his own. This deep into the calendar, he's sitting pretty at No. 11 on ESPN.com's RPM Wins leaderboard, sandwiched directly between Kyrie Irving and Damian Lillard.
But Vucevic is still operating on an expiring deal, and letting him remain on the roster past the deadline means Orlando would risk him walking for nothing. Considering he doesn't fit seamlessly with an organizational timeline that hinges on the development of Mohamed Bamba and Jonathan Isaac, that's a bad plan.
As D.J. Foster wrote for The Ringer:
"When you remember, though, that simply getting to the postseason isn’t a guarantee for his most logical suitors, you could see why a team would pony up to pry Vucevic out of Orlando. After all, you need arms to win an arms race, and there might not be a bigger or better player available at the trade deadline than Vucevic."
The Tricky Teams
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New Orleans Pelicans: No One? Maybe? It Depends?
The Pelicans could easily be tempted into making major moves at the deadline.
That Anthony Davis is on the block functions as old news now, given how quickly rumors swirl this time of year. But now, Jordan Brenner is also reporting that the team is gauging interest in Jrue Holiday. That's a natural development; if the team is going to jettison its franchise centerpiece, it may as well also shop around the other notable name, one who's playing well enough in 2018-19 that he should've merited serious All-Star consideration in the Western Conference.
If a godfather offer comes around, the Pelicans shouldn't hesitate. We're not talking about the Los Angeles Lakers ferrying forth a package built around Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and a first-round pick, as the stock of those young contributors has fallen during the current campaign. But if a team like the Denver Nuggets comes calling with Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Michael Porter Jr. and a first-rounder on the table, that's when things get interesting.
Barring the right deal, New Orleans should still exercise patience. It can afford to wait until the offseason, biding its time and pursuing a playoff berth until Kyrie Irving isn't functioning as a trade-blocking designated player for the Boston Celtics via his Rose Rule contract. Only then can all offers truly be available, and the C's have enough firepower to outdo all other packages.
Given the disgruntled nature of Davis, the Pelicans shouldn't be buyers, even if their 1.2 net rating (No. 13 in the league) indicates severe underachievement and the possibility of a bounce-back second half to the year. But they also shouldn't be sellers, even as they have no choice but to entertain franchise-altering offers.
It's tricky.
Washington Wizards: [Insert Shrug Emoticon]
"We'll see what's out there," Washington owner Ted Leonsis said on Washington radio station WTOP (h/t NBC Sports' Lisa Redmond), responding to a question about whether his team would end up trading John Wall, Bradley Beal or Otto Porter Jr. "But I'm not tanking, right? I love when they go, 'Trade Bradley Beal. Trade John Wall. Trade Otto Porter.' And I go 'OK, for who?' We're not trading any of those players."
Keep in mind that we're in the heart of smokescreen season. Remember that the 22-30 Wizards have to play the remainder of the campaign without Wall and are sitting 2.5 games back of the final playoff spot in the top-heavy Eastern Conference. Don't forget that freedom from the money owed to this core trio would be a relief for a franchise that could stand to hit the reset button.
The Wizards don't need to sell low on anyone. But would they hesitate to ship off Wall if a team was willing to assume the entirety of the four-year, $170 million extension set to kick in at the start of 2019-20? Then again, should they just give up on a trio that, when healthier, played to a 9.0 net rating last year and a 7.1 net rating the season prior?
Washington certainly shouldn't function as a buyer this year. That would be a short-sighted decision that could cripple the long-term hopes in the nation's capital. But whether it should function as a seller?
It's tricky.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats accurate heading into games Feb. 1 and courtesy of Basketball Reference, NBA.com, PBPStats.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com.
