
Alabama vs. Clemson: Early Betting Odds College Football Championship 2019
Alabama and Clemson entered the College Football Playoff as heavy favorites in their respective semifinal matchups and each took care of business on Saturday night.
The Crimson Tide handled Oklahoma 45-34 in Orange Bowl in a game that was never really in doubt, despite the relatively close final score. Earlier in the day, Clemson dismantled Notre Dame, holding the Irish to just 248 total yards en route to a 30-3 victory.
Those results have set up a meeting between Clemson and Alabama for the fourth consecutive season and the third time in the National Championship Game.
The teams split the first two meetings in the title game, with Jake Coker leading Alabama to victory in 2016 and Deshaun Watson helping Clemson get revenge in 2017.
Who: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Clemson
Where: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, California)
When: Monday, January 7, 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Alabama -6, via OddsShark
The deciding factor in this championship bout could be the health of Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's ankle. After getting knocked out of the SEC Championship Game, Tagovailoa was back on the field Saturday and appeared to be close to 100 percent.
However, how Tagovailoa's ankle responds after playing a full game with just over a week of rest remains to be seen.
After the game, ESPN's Alex Scarborough captured an image of Tagovailoa in a walking boot:
Even if Tagovailoa is back to full strength, Alabama likely won't be able to light up the scoreboard against Clemson's defense.
Based on ESPN's defensive efficiency metric, Clemson boasts the No. 1 defense in the country.
Alabama has previously played three other top-10 defenses, which resulted in its three lowest scoring outputs of the season:
vs. No. 5 Georgia - 35 points
vs No. 6 Mississippi State - 24 points
vs. No. 10 LSU - 29 points
Despite its offense being held to more modest numbers against Mississippi State and LSU, the Crimson Tide still cruised to easy victories in each game. This was primarily due to the fact that Mississippi State ranked 33rd in offensive efficiency, while LSU ranked 29th. The Tide defense pitched a shutout in each game.
Georgia is the only team Alabama played that ranks in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and the Bulldogs were able to hang with the Crimson Tide before falling 35-28.
In addition to its No. 1 defensive ranking, Clemson ranks No. 4 in offensive efficiency. That balanced attack should allow the Tigers to keep it close and potentially pull off the upset.
The familiarity of these two programs also creates an interesting dynamic. It's a factor we rarely see in bowl games, where schools are often meeting for the first time in years.
In this case, the familiarity factor may be an additional advantage for Alabama, due to the fact that Clemson is running essentially the same offense with freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence as it did in previous years with Deshaun Watson and Kelly Bryant. That could make the preparation slightly easier for Alabama's defensive coaching staff.
On the other side, however, Alabama has made significant changes to the offensive game plan compared to the previous two seasons with Jalen Hurts taking snaps at quarterback.
Hurts was a liability as a downfield passer, so Alabama's passing attack was more conservative. But Tagovailoa is one of the best downfield passers in the country, and he is aided by a deep receiving corps that has given the Crimson Tide the most explosive downfield passing game in program history.
In a matchup that is relatively even in most areas, that slight advantage in familiarity with Clemson's offense could be enough to tip the scales in Alabama's favor.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Clemson 27
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