Orange Bowl 2018: Final Odds and Prediction for Alabama vs. Oklahoma
The college football game that's sat atop the sport's marquee for the last month finally gets to be played Saturday night.
The defending champion Alabama Crimson Tide face off against the Oklahoma Sooners in the second of two College Football Playoff semifinals at the Orange Bowl.
Alabama has been one of the most dominant programs this season, but one of the few things it lost in 2018 could fuel Nick Saban's team to victory.
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Oklahoma enters the Orange Bowl as the biggest underdog of bowl season, and although the Sooners have the Heisman Trophy winner in their corner, their exploitable deficiencies are the reasons why they aren't expected to come out on top.
Orange Bowl Odds (via OddsShark)
Spread: Alabama -14
Over/Under: 78
Money Line: Alabama (-600; Bet $600 to win $100); Oklahoma (+450; Bet $100 to win $450)
Score Prediction
Alabama 42, Oklahoma 30
The Orange Bowl presents some of the most intriguing betting lines of the college football season, as Alabama is a 14-point favorite and the over/under sits at a ginormous total of 78.
Both numbers are more than capable of hitting given the explosiveness of both offenses, but Alabama's defense will be the ultimate difference-maker.
Alabama's defense has to understand that Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray is going to make a few dynamic plays with his arm and legs.
How the Crimson Tide responds to Murray's playmaking ability and adjusts to what Oklahoma throws at them is more critical than getting the initial stops against the Heisman Trophy winner.
Although it seems like Murray has been the epitome of perfection for the Sooners over the last month, he has turned the ball over on a few occasions.
Since the start of November, Murray was intercepted four times, twice by Texas Tech and once by West Virginia and Kansas.
Alabama's defense boasts five players with multiple interceptions, and there's a good chance at least one of those players comes up with a turnover Saturday.
Defensive backs Saivion Smith and Deionte Thompson are the most likely prospects to force turnovers, as they'll be tasked with containing Oklahoma's wide receivers.
By limiting the open spaces in the secondary, Alabama's defensive backs could set themselves up for success by picking off Murray when he tries to force a pass into a small opening.
If the Crimson Tide defense holds the Sooners to third-and-long situations, Murray will make less of an impact on the game with his legs since Alabama would spy him on those plays.
From the offensive perspective, everything is there for the taking in the eyes of the Crimson Tide as they face the 124th-ranked defense in the FBS.
Even if quarterback and Heisman runner-up Tua Tagovailoa isn't at 100 percent, he should be able to pick out targets in the passing game at will.
The deep group of wide receivers that includes Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle, Henry Ruggs and DeVonta Smith should find plenty of gaps down the field for Tagovailoa to hit them with passes and surge into, or close to, the end zone.
As if that wasn't enough for Oklahoma to try to contain, the Crimson Tide possess a trio of bulldozing running backs in Damien Harris, Najee Harris and Josh Jacobs.
If Tagovailoa gets Alabama within 20 yards of the end zone through the air, all he has to do is hand the ball off to one of his three running backs to finish off scoring drives.
Unless Oklahoma pulls off one of the most surprising defensive performances in recent memory, Alabama will score as many points as it wants.
And if you think winning another national championship was enough motivation for the Crimson Tide, they'll make it known on the field who should've been the Heisman winner in their eyes, as Tagovailoa receives every opportunity to succeed in the pocket.
Alabama won't blowout Oklahoma because Murray's ability will keep the Sooners within reach, but when the fourth quarter rolls around, the Crimson Tide should be in total control.
The only questions surrounding the fourth quarter involve the betting lines, and while it's enticing to take Alabama and the over, they might not be the smartest plays.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90
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