Clemson vs. Notre Dame: Odds and Score Prediction for Cotton Bowl 2018
In the weeks leading up to the Cotton Bowl, Clemson was seen as a juggernaut that Notre Dame wouldn't be able to stop.
But in the week preceding the game, the Tigers have looked more susceptible to an upset from the Fighting Irish than they would like.
With defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence suspended for the first of two College Football Playoff semifinals Saturday, the Tigers have to patch a hole in their defense all of a sudden.
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Attacking Clemson's stout defensive line is still a difficult task with three other potential first-round picks starting, but if Notre Dame gets out to a fast start and does enough to disrupt the Tigers' rhythm, we could be in for a closer game than expected.
Cotton Bowl Odds
Spread: Clemson -12
Over/Under: 57
Money Line: Clemson -450 (bet $450 to win $100); Notre Dame +359 (bet $100 to win $359)
Score Prediction
Clemson 36, Notre Dame 31
Notre Dame has a window of opportunity in the first quarter to punch Clemson in the mouth and prove it's going to stick around for four quarters.
In order to do that, quarterback Ian Book needs to take a shot down field with one of his first three throws to prove the Fighting Irish aren't afraid of taking risks.
Brian Kelly's team also needs to establish a rushing attack through running back Dexter Williams, and with Lawrence out, Notre Dame should go straight up the middle and challenge Albert Huggins, his replacement on the interior.
By showing no fear and going straight at the beast that is Clemson, Notre Dame finds a way to put points on the board with its first drive, and it follows that up with another score the next time it hits the field.
Defensively, the Fighting Irish go right after Clemson freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence with their pass rush, led by Jerry Tillery.
If Tillery and Co. either pressure the first-year signal-caller or sack him on Clemson's first few offensive drives, Notre Dame should get the ball back right away.
In two of their past three victories, Notre Dame was able to execute its strategy as the aggressor, as it put up 17 first-quarter points on Florida State and scored 13 points in the first 15 minutes versus Syracuse.
While Notre Dame's strategy works in the first half, Dabo Swinney and the Clemson coaching staff will make adjustments that push around the No. 3 seed in the playoff.
Sophomore running back Travis Etienne plays a major role in shifting the momentum of the Cotton Bowl as he starts to find holes in Notre Dame's front seven.
Etienne ran for 306 yards and four touchdowns in his past two regular-season games, and he's found the end zone twice in each of his past three contests.
With his team down to start the third quarter, Etienne makes a few incisive runs into the second layer of the Notre Dame defense and forces the Fighting Irish to commit extra bodies to stopping the run.
Once Notre Dame shows commitment to silencing Etienne, Lawrence goes over the top and picks out one of his wide receivers in man-to-man coverage.
In Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross and Amari Rodgers, Lawrence has three wide receivers he can trust to make big plays, and given the strengths of each player, Notre Dame won't be able to focus on stopping a single pass-catcher.
Then there's Mr. Playoff himself, Hunter Renfrow, who always seems to find a way to make an impact in Clemson's biggest games.
In five career College Football Playoff games, Renfrow has five touchdown catches, and he will add to that total in a key red-zone situation that shifts the balance of power inside AT&T Stadium.
Once Clemson takes the lead in the middle of the third quarter, its defense responds with a powerful pass rush, led by Christian Wilkins and Clelin Ferrell, to force a three-and-out.
The Tigers head into the fourth quarter with the lead, and they extend the advantage to double digits by way of their freshman quarterback, who works himself into a rhythm and throws three second-half touchdown passes.
Following Clemson's offensive explosion, Notre Dame finds a way to pull itself back within one possession through Book and his talented set of wide receivers, headlined by Miles Boykin and Chase Claypool.
While the late rally creates intrigue, especially for those who bet on Clemson to cover, Notre Dame comes up short in its comeback attempt.
Clemson exits the Cotton Bowl with its second-smallest margin of victory of the season and a spot in its third College Football Playoff National Championship.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
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