Heisman Watch 2018: Latest Odds and Predictions in Race For Top Award
The Heisman Trophy race is closer than we expected it to be a few weeks ago.
Before Kyler Murray led Oklahoma's surge into the College Football Playoff, Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa was the overwhelming favorite to earn the sport's most prestigious individual honor.
The pair of quarterbacks, who will square off in the Orange Bowl December 29, are expected to be finalists for the award given out Saturday night in New York City.
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In addition to Murray and Tagovailoa, there are a few other QBs who are worthy of the trip to New York City, but they are jostling for the positions beneath the pair of favorites on the ballot.
Heisman Odds and Predictions (Odds via OddsShark, Last Updated Nov. 27)
1. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama (-500; Bet $500 to win $100)
Even though he didn't complete the SEC Championship, Tagovailoa still stands as the player to beat in the Heisman race.
The left-handed sophomore totaled 3,353 passing yards and 37 touchdowns while leading Nick Saban's Crimson Tide to the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.
If Heisman voters waited to send in their ballots until after conference championship weekend, they might hesitate to select Tagovailoa as the winner because he threw a pair of interceptions against Georgia.
Since two of the other candidates showcased their talents for four quarters in Week 14, they'll make voters think about the order of players on the ballot.
But there will cases in which some voters mailed in their opinions before Week 14 because they believed Tagovailoa winning the Heisman was a foregone conclusion.
When it comes to the vote itself, the 20-year-old should earn the majority of the first-place votes from the southeast region since he is the best player in the SEC.
Voters from outside the SEC's base will add to the first-place tally because the Hawaii native is the best player on the best team in college football.
With Murray and Dwayne Haskins surging late, though, it will be interesting to see how wide the margin is between first and second.
2. Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma (+350; Bet $100 to win $350)
Murray has done everything he could in the last two weeks to make Heisman voters legitimately think about his candidacy.
The Oklahoma quarterback is one of three players to eclipse 4,000 passing yards, but what separates him from the pack is his multi-dimensional skill set.
In addition to his ridiculous passing numbers, Murray has 892 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground, and if he finds gaps in the Alabama defense during the Orange Bowl, he could hit the 1,000-yard mark in that category.
What's made the Oklahoma gunslinger a Heisman rival to Tagovailoa is his performance down the stretch against West Virginia and Texas.
Murray threw for 364 yards and ran for 114 in the shootout that sent the Sooners into the Big 12 Championship, and once he got there, the junior avenged a loss to Texas by contributing 379 passing yards.
While it will be tough for the 21-year-old to become the second straight Oklahoma quarterback to capture the Heisman, he has the best shot of any other player to challenge Tagovailoa.
3. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State (+3,300)
Before exploding for 396 passing yards and six touchdowns against Michigan, Ohio State's Dwayne Haskins was an afterthought in the Heisman conversation.
With buzz surrounding other quarterbacks and average performances put in by the Buckeyes, few gave Haskins a chance to earn a trip to New York City at the start of November.
That's all changed now that the 21-year-old has a Big Ten Championship in hand and he threw for 11 touchdowns over the last two games.
Haskins has the numbers as the nation's leading passer and touchdown thrower to be a Heisman finalist, and the voters would be silly not to include him.
The late surge up the Heisman power rankings will cost him the award, but he'll benefit from recency bias and land third with one or two first-place votes.
4. Gardner Minshew, QB, Washington State (+5,000)
Washington State's Gardner Minshew experienced the opposite fortune as Haskins at the end of the regular season, as the Cougars lost the Apple Cup to Washington and fell out of the New Year's Six.
Contending for the Heisman was always going to be tough for the 22-year-old, who entered the season with little national recognition as a transfer playing on the west coast.
As Mike Leach's team continued to build up wins, Minshew's stock rose, and he ended up as the second-best passer in the FBS behind Haskins with 4,477 passing yards.
Unfortunately for Minshew, the combination of Murray and Haskins shining in conference championships and the snow-ridden Apple Cup loss will cost him votes, and he'll be struggling to take third with Haskins rising fast.
5. Will Grier, QB, West Virginia (+2,000)
When West Virginia lost to Oklahoma in Week 13, Will Grier's Heisman hopes were dashed.
Although he tossed four touchdowns while picking up 539 passing yards against the Sooners, he came out of the game as the loser in the public view because Murray led Oklahoma to a road win.
The loss to Oklahoma was crushing, but it wasn't as debilitating to Grier's Heisman campaign as the Week 12 defeat at the hands of Oklahoma State.
By losing to the Cowboys, Grier and the Mountaineers took a Big 12 Championship berth out of their own hands, and that stage would have been the perfect showcase for the 23-year-old.
Instead of being a lock to finish in the top three, Grier should end up splitting votes with Haskins and Minshew and end up at the bottom of the top five.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
Where to Watch: The Heisman Award ceremony and all college football broadcasts are available through fuboTV.
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