2018 MWC Championship Game Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 28, 2018

STILLWATER, OK - SEPTEMBER 15: Quarterback Brett Rypien #4 of the Boise State Broncos looks to hand off the ball against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium on September 15, 2018 in Stillwater, Oklahoma. The Cowboys defeated the Broncos 44-21. (Photo by Brett Deering/Getty Images)
Brett Deering/Getty Images

Boise State owns the recent rivalry with Fresno State, winning 11 of the last 13 meetings outright, including the Mountain West championship game last year and a regular-season meeting one month ago.

But the Bulldogs are 4-1 against the spread over the last five meetings, pulling off one upset and keeping other games close as underdogs.

Who's the better bet for Saturday night's Mountain West title contest rematch in Boise?


College football point spread: The Broncos opened as 2.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 37.6-25.2 Bulldogs (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Fresno State Bulldogs can cover the spread

Fresno State finished its regular season with two straight victories, including a 31-13 decision over San Jose State last week.

The Bulldogs, having already clinched the MWC West, only led the Spartans 3-0 at the half. But Fresno State scored the first 14 points out of the locker room to take control on its way toward its 10th win of the season.

The Bulldogs outgained San Jose State 515-367 and outrushed the Spartans 198-60. Fresno State has outgained six of its last seven opponents, each by at least 100 yards.

The Bulldogs are also 8-4 ATS on the season and 4-2 ATS on the road.


Why the Boise State Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos finished their regular season with seven straight victories, including a 33-24 division-clinching decision over Utah State last week.

Boise State spotted the Aggies the first seven points of the game, then scored the next 17 to take a lead it would not relinquish. In the end, up by two, the Broncos delighted their financial backers by tacking on a touchdown with four seconds left to cover the spread as three-point favorites.

Boise State racked up 509 yards of total offense, outrushed Utah State 199-62, held a 38/22 advantage in time of possession and won the turnover battle 2-0.

The Broncos have outgained each of their last three opponents and outrushed their last four foes. They're also 3-0 ATS over their last three games.


Smart betting pick

Boise State won this matchup one month ago 24-17 but had to rally from a 17-3 deficit to do it. Also, Fresno State owns the better performance this season against common opponents. And while the Broncos own the edge on offense, the Bulldogs own the edge on defense.

The smart money here likes Fresno State.


College football betting trends

The total has gone under in Fresno State's last four games versus Boise State.

Boise State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games at home in December.

Fresno State is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games.


All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.