2018 SEC Championship Game: Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 26, 2018

TUSCALOOSA, AL - NOVEMBER 24:  Tua Tagovailoa #13 of the Alabama Crimson Tide rushes against the Auburn Tigers at Bryant-Denny Stadium on November 24, 2018 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Alabama owns a four-game winning streak in the rivalry with Georgia, including that come-from-behind overtime victory in last season's national championship game. The Crimson Tide shoots to make it five in a row over the Bulldogs when the teams meet in the SEC championship game Saturday afternoon in Atlanta.

College football point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 10.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 49.4-31.0 Crimson Tide (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

The defending national champs reached 12-0 on this season with a 52-21 blowout of Auburn in the Iron Bowl last week. Alabama only led 17-14 at the half but scored the first 14 points out of the locker room to take a 17-point lead. The Crimson Tide later tacked on the last 21 points of the game to secure the cash as a 26-point favorite.

On the day, Alabama out-gained the Tigers 500-283, as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa hit on 25 of 32 throws for 324 yards and five touchdowns, without a pick. So the Tide have now out-gained each of their 12 opponents this season by at least 130 yards, 10 of them by at least 200 yards.

Alabama is also 5-1 ATS over its last six games, covering spreads of 28, 29, 14, 21 and 25 points. The Crimson Tide remain the No. 1 team in the newest College Football Playoff rankings.

           

Why the Georgia Bulldogs can cover the spread

The defending SEC champions just completed an 11-1 regular season with a 45-21 victory over rival Georgia Tech last week. Georgia drove its first five possessions of the game 75, 88, 63, 44 and 33 yards to touchdowns, led 38-7 at the half, then scored the first seven points of the second half and cruised home from there to the easy cover as a 17-point favorite.

On the day, UGA out-gained the Yellow Jackets 448-219, held a 25-12 advantage in first downs and out-rushed Georgia Tech 286-128. Also, the Bulldog defense held the Ramblin' Wreck offense out of the end zone until just seven minutes remained in the game.

Georgia has now out-gained and out-rushed every opponent this season except LSU. The Bulldogs are still in the running for a spot in the CFP. However, a two-loss Georgia team might not make it when compared to potential one-loss outfits like Ohio State and Oklahoma.

    

Smart betting pick

Alabama beat the Bulldogs in last year's national title game 26-23 in overtime but had to come from behind to do it. Georgia outplayed the Tide most of that game, and basically came about one play away from winning it. Alabama may still win this game outright, but the smart money bets the Bulldogs plus the points.

     

College football betting trends

The total has gone over in six of Alabama's last seven games vs Georgia.

The total has gone over in five of Georgia's last six games.

Georgia is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

        

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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