LSU Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 22, 2018

Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond (11) warms up before an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 10, 2018, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Since becoming conference divisional rivals six seasons ago, LSU is 6-0 both straight up and against the spread in the series with Texas A&M, including a blowout in Baton Rouge last season. But the Tigers will play as short underdogs against the Aggies on Saturday night in College Station, Texas.


College football point spread: The Aggies opened as two-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 31.2-29.2 Tigers (College football picks on every game)

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Why the LSU Tigers can cover the spread

LSU carries a two-game winning streak into this contest after routing Rice last week 42-10.

The Tigers drove the opening possession of the game 79 yards to a touchdown, led 28-3 at the half, then scored the first two touchdowns out of the locker room and steamed home from there.

LSU outgained the Owls 552-198. The Tigers have outgained and outrushed three of their last five opponents.

LSU also owns the better performance against common opponents this season, going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS against Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Ole Miss and Mississippi State. The Aggies, meanwhile, are just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS against those five teams.

At 9-2 overall and 5-2 in conference play, LSU can clinch second place in the SEC West and probably a New Year's Day bowl bid with a victory Saturday.


Why the Texas A&M Aggies can cover the spread

Texas A&M also owns a two-game winning streak after beating a pretty good UAB team last week 41-20.

The Aggies took a 7-0 lead by returning a fumble on the opening kickoff for a touchdown, let the Blazers tie the score at 7-7, then used a 27-0 run spanning the halves to take control on their way to the victory and the cover as 17-point favorites.

A&M outrushed UAB 252-111 and won the turnover battle 3-1, creating a plus-17 point differential. The Aggies have now outgained and outrushed their last three opponents and six of their last seven foes.

Texas A&M is also 5-1 both SU and ATS at Kyle Field this season. At 4-3 in conference play, the Aggies can claim second place in the SEC West with a victory Saturday.


Smart betting pick

LSU won this matchup last year 45-21, but this game will be much closer than that. In fact, it's a total toss-up.

Ultimately, Texas A&M owns the better running game and the better run defense, and it should win this game and cover the short spread.


College football betting trends

The total has gone under in five of Texas A&M's last seven games.

Texas A&M is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games.

Texas A&M is 4-0 SU in its last four games at home versus teams with winning records.


All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.