Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets: Odds, Analysis, NBA Betting Pick

The Golden State Warriors (12-3) will be underdogs for the first time this season on Thursday when the Houston Rockets (6-7) host them as small home favorites at sportsbooks.

The two-time defending NBA champion Warriors will be playing without Stephen Curry (groin) for the fourth straight game and have gone 2-1 in the first three.

NBA point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total is at 220, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 109.3-104.8, Rockets (NBA picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

Why the Warriors can cover the spread

Golden State is learning to play without Curry again but will have Draymond Green back in the lineup after he was suspended one game by the team and missed a 110-103 win over the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday.

Quinn Cook and Jonas Jerebko combined for 32 points and 17 rebounds in their absence against Atlanta, while Kevin Durant paced the Warriors by scoring 29.

They have failed to cover the spread in three of four, according to the OddsShark NBA Database, but they should still be in the heads of the Rockets following their comeback victory in the Western Conference Finals last year.

Why the Rockets can cover the spread

Houston has played better lately since relieving Carmelo Anthony of his duties, even though it remains unclear as to what the team plans to do with him.

The Rockets have won consecutive games without the 34-year-old, routing both the Indiana Pacers and Denver Nuggets by double digits and covering the spread each time.

The Rockets beat the Nuggets 109-99 as 4.5-point road underdogs on Tuesday behind 24 points and nine rebounds from Clint Capela while the backcourt of James Harden and Chris Paul scored 43.

Smart betting pick

It is hard to trust Houston in this spot as a home favorite versus Golden State, which has gone 6-1 straight up and against the spread in the role of road underdog in this series dating back to 2014. That trend alone makes the Warriors a solid pick here, regardless of Curry missing the game.

The Warriors still have plenty of offensive firepower, and Green will be primed to make up for missing the last game with a big performance.

Bet on Golden State to further the frustrations of the home team with another win and cover.

NBA betting trends

Golden State is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games.

The total has gone under in four of Golden State's last six games.

Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six games at home.

All NBA odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.