Clemson may be a national title contender but it's only 2-3 against the spread at home this season, thanks in part to inflated spreads. Duke, meanwhile, is 4-1 both straight up and ATS on the road this year. Who's the smart bet for Saturday night's Tigers-Blue Devils clash at Death Valley?
College football point spread: The Tigers opened as 27-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 52.3-18.6 Tigers (College football picks on every game)
Why the Duke Blue Devils can cover the spread
Duke carries a two-game winning streak into this contest after knocking off North Carolina last week 42-35. The Blue Devils trailed the Tar Heels 7-0 early but led 35-28 at the half. Duke then scored the first seven points out of the locker room and hung on from there for the victory.
Unfortunately for their financial backers, the Blue Devils gave up a UNC touchdown with just over a minute to go and pushed the spread as seven-point favorites.
On the day, Duke amassed 629 yards of total offense, 268 on the ground and 361 through the air. The Blue Devils also converted on 13-of-20 third-down situations. Meanwhile, after a rough first half, the Duke defense forced five punts and a fourth-down failure on North Carolina's first six possessions of the second half.
Two weeks ago, the Blue Devils won at Miami 20-12. At 7-3 overall Duke is headed back to a bowl for the sixth time in the last seven seasons.
Why the Clemson Tigers can cover the spread
Clemson reached 10-0 on the season, and 5-0 ATS over its last five games, with a 27-7 victory/cover at Boston College last week. The Tigers kicked an early field goal for a 3-0 lead, fell down 7-3 on an Eagles punt return for a score, then tallied the final 24 points of the game for the win and the money as 17-point favorites.
On the night Clemson out-gained Boston College 424-113, held the Eagles to just eight first downs and nine yards rushing and won time of possession by a 35-25 split.
The Tigers have now out-gained every opponent this season except Texas A&M and out-rushed every opponent except North Carolina State. Clemson has also won its last five games by an average score of 53-9
With last week's victory, the Tigers clinched the ACC's Atlantic Division title. They're also rated No. 2 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings.
Smart betting pick
Clemson will win this game but playing at home means the spread is probably inflated by several points. Also, the Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season. Smart money here likes Duke plus the points.
College football betting trends
Clemson is 7-0 SU in its last seven games at home vs teams with winning records.
The total has gone under in eight of Duke's last 10 games on the road.
Duke is 4-0 ATS in its last four games on the road vs teams with winning records.
All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.