Iowa State Cyclones vs. Texas Longhorns: Odds, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 12, 2018

LUBBOCK, TX - NOVEMBER 10: Lil'Jordan Humphrey #84 of the Texas Longhorns falls across the goal line and scores the winning touchdown with seconds left in the fourth quarter against the Texas Tech Red Raiders on November 10, 2018 at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. Texas defeated Texas Tech 41-34. (Photo by John Weast/Getty Images)
John Weast/Getty Images

Texas is 13-2 straight up all-time against Iowa State, with double-digit victories each of the last two seasons. But the Cyclones are 3-2 against the spread over the last five meetings, pulling one upset, keeping a couple other games close as underdogs. Iowa State tries to lasso the Longhorns on Saturday evening in Austin.

College football point spread: The Longhorns opened as three-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.4-30.0 Cyclones (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Iowa State Cyclones can cover the spread

The Cyclones whirl a five-game winning streak into this contest, and a 5-1 ATS run, after beating Baylor last week 28-14. Iowa State hit the board first with a touchdown late in the first quarter, led 17-0 at the half and pushed that advantage to 28-7 into the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, the Cyclones gave up another Bears score and ended up just short of covering as 17-point favorites.

On the day, Iowa State were beaten along most of the stat sheet, but most of the yardage the Cyclones defense gave up came after taking a 20-0 lead.

ISU has now out-gained four of its last five opponents and out-rushed five of its last seven. The Cyclones are also 3-1 ATS on the road this season and 4-1 ATS as underdogs.

At 5-2 in conference play, Iowa State can earn its first-ever berth in the Big 12 championship game with two more wins and one West Virginia loss. And the Mountaineers have to play Oklahoma next week.


Why the Texas Longhorns can cover the spread

Texas just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 41-34 victory/cover at Texas Tech last week. The Longhorns spotted the Red Raiders the first seven points of the game, then scored the next 17 and led 17-10 at the half. Texas pushed its lead to 34-17 early in the fourth quarter, allowed Texas Tech to tie the game at 34-34 with just under two minutes to go but drove 75 yards to the game-winning touchdown with 20 seconds left.

On the night, the Longhorns produced 469 yards of total offense, converted 10-of-17 third-down and fourth-down situations and won the turnover battle 3-0, basically creating a plus-15 point differential.

Texas had lost its previous two games to Oklahoma State and West Virginia by a combined four points.

At 5-2 in conference play, Texas can clinch a spot in the Big 12 championship game with two more wins and one Oklahoma loss. And the Sooners have to play West Virginia next week.


Smart betting pick

The Longhorns won this matchup last year 17-7, covering as five-point favorites. However, that was a one-score game into the fourth quarter, and Saturday's contest should play out along similar lines. And for games that could go either way, smart money takes the points.


College football betting trends

Iowa State is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games vs Texas.

The total has gone under in Iowa State's last three games vs Texas.

The total has gone under in 21 of Texas' last 30 games.


All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.