College Football Odds Week 11: Picks, Spread Predictions for Top 25 Games

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistNovember 8, 2018

EAST LANSING, MI - SEPTEMBER 29:  Connor Heyward #11 of the Michigan State Spartans tries for extra yards after a first half catch next to Michael Oliver #39 of the Central Michigan Chippewas at Spartan Stadium on September 29, 2018 in East Lansing, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Upon first glance, the Week 11 college football schedule doesn't impress. 

However, if you dig a bit deeper you'll find some intriguing matchups that could put Top 25 teams under pressure. 

The top contests on the Week 11 slate take place in the ACC and Big Ten, but there's a Big 12 clash worth keeping your eyes on, as it could be the most exciting contest on Saturday. 

As we will for the next few weeks, we'll look at each result and see how it plays into the College Football Playoff discussion.

Although the top four teams in the nation won't lose Saturday, at least one program holding on to playoff hopes will. 


Week 11 Schedule and Odds (via OddsShark)

All Times ET.

Predictions against the spread in bold.

Thursday, November 8

Wake Forest at No. 14 NC State (-17.5) (7:30 p.m., ESPN) 


Friday, November 9

Louisville at No. 13 Syracuse (-21) (7 p.m., ESPN2) 

No. 23 Fresno State (-2) at Boise State (10:15 p.m., ESPN2) 


Saturday, November 10

TCU at No. 9 West Virginia (-12) (Noon, FS1) 

No. 10 Ohio State (-3.5) at No. 18 Michigan State (Noon, Fox) 

Navy at No. 12 UCF (-25.5) (Noon, ESPN2) 

South Carolina at No. 15 Florida (-6) (Noon, ESPN) 

Wisconsin at No. 20 Penn State (-9) (Noon, ABC) 

No. 16 Mississippi State at No. 1 Alabama (-24) (3:30 p.m., CBS) 

No. 4 Michigan (-39.5) at Rutgers (3:30 p.m., BTN) 

Oklahoma State at No. 6 Oklahoma (-20.5) (3:30 p.m., ABC) 

No. 8 Washington State (-6) at Colorado (3:30 p.m., ESPN) 

No. 11 Kentucky (-6) at Tennessee (3:30 p.m., SEC Network) 

Northwestern at No. 21 Iowa (-10.5) (3:30 p.m., Fox) 

Baylor at No. 22 Iowa State (-14.5) (3:30 p.m., FS1) 

No. 24 Auburn at No. 5 Georgia (-14) (7 p.m., ESPN) 

Florida State at No. 3 Notre Dame (-18) (7:30 p.m., NBC)

No. 7 LSU (-13.5) at Arkansas (7:30 p.m., SEC Network) 

No. 19 Texas (-1.5) at Texas Tech (7:30 p.m., Fox) 

No. 2 Clemson (-20) at No. 17 Boston College (8 p.m., ABC) 



Michigan State 34, Ohio State 26

The talk of Ohio State's playoff pipe dream will end in East Lansing, Michigan, Saturday afternoon.

The Buckeyes still have an outside chance of qualifying for the playoff if they win out, but they've been too inconsistent to put any trust behind. 

In recent weeks, the Buckeyes have let Minnesota and Nebraska hang around in victories, and Purdue blew them off the field. 

The string of underwhelming results will continue in Week 11, as Mark Dantonio's team puts together its third win in a row.

COLLEGE PARK, MD - NOVEMBER 03: Connor Heyward #11 of the Michigan State Spartans celebrates with Tyler Higby #70 and Brian Lewerke #14 of the Michigan State Spartans after scoring a touchdown against the Maryland Terrapins during the first half at Capita
Will Newton/Getty Images

With both teams directly behind Michigan in the Big Ten East, the victor will put itself in position to make the Rose Bowl if the Wolverines qualify for the playoff. 

Although the Spartans haven't had the best season by their standard, they found a way to win on the road at Penn State, and they'll bank on that experience at home to knock off the Buckeyes. 

The key for the Spartans will be running back Connor Hayward, who broke out for 157 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the Week 10 win over Maryland. 

Ohio State will find a way to match Michigan State's offensive production during stretches of the game, with quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who is the nation's third-best passer, leading the charge.

However, Michigan State's defense, which has given up 54 points in the last four games, will come up with a few second-half stops to send the Buckeyes home with their second defeat. 


Texas Tech 37, Texas 34

The perfect recipe for a letdown game awaits Texas Saturday. 

The Longhorns, who are coming off a last-second defeat to West Virginia at home, travel to Texas Tech for a prime-time showdown with a team that pushed Oklahoma a week ago.

Texas Tech is 1-2 against ranked opposition, but its two defeats are by a combined 13 points to Oklahoma and West Virginia. 

In order to upset their in-state rival, the Red Raiders will rely on quarterback Jett Duffey, who threw a pair of touchdowns against Oklahoma, after Alan Bowman suffered a partially collapsed lung, per the Associated Press

LUBBOCK, TX - OCTOBER 20: Jett Duffey #7 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders warms up before the game against the Kansas Jayhawks on October 20, 2018 at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. Texas Tech defeated Kansas 48-16. (Photo by John Weast/Getty Images)
John Weast/Getty Images

Duffey has a few players he can rely on to advance the Red Raiders down the field with ease, with wide receiver Antoine Wesley being the top target.

Wesley's reached the 100-yard mark in each of his last three games, and he's already eclipsed the 1,000-yard barrier. 

Texas' defense was beaten up by Oklahoma State and West Virginia, as it allowed 80 points over the last two weeks, and although it's shown positive signs throughout the season, Tom Herman's team will struggle to contain the Red Raiders. 

That puts the pressure on quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who has five touchdown passes in his last two games, to lead Texas down the field in an offensive showdown. 

The Longhorns will be able to keep up with the Red Raiders for four quarters, but their inability to put away Kliff Kingsbury's team will come back to haunt them. 

The upset of the Longhorns will make the Red Raiders bowl-eligible, and it'll set them on the path to play in one of the better postseason games, as they close out the regular season with wins over Kansas State and Baylor. 


Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.