Auburn Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 6, 2018

Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm (11) throws a pass against Florida during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 27, 2018, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
John Raoux/Associated Press

Georgia owns the edge in the recent series with Auburn, winning six of the last eight meetings straight up, including the SEC Championship Game last year, and going 6-2 against the spread along the way. In the 123rd edition of the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry the Bulldogs battle the Tigers on Saturday evening between the hedges.

College football point spread: The Bulldogs opened as 13.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 39.5-19.8 Bulldogs (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Auburn Tigers can cover the spread

Auburn is 2-0 both SU and ATS its last two times out after topping Texas A&M last week 28-24. The Tigers fell down to the Aggies early 3-0 and still trailed 24-14 well into the fourth quarter. But Auburn turned a takeaway into a touchdown, forced a punt, then drove 58 yards in two plays for a touchdown and the lead and held on from there for both the victory and the cover as a 3.5-point favorite.

On the day, the Tigers were beaten all over the stat sheet but won the turnover battle 2-0, resulting in a plus-14 point differential. Two weeks ago, Auburn won at Ole Miss 31-16, covering as a five-point favorite.

            

Why the Georgia Bulldogs can cover the spread

Georgia is also 2-0 both SU and ATS its last two times out, after beating Kentucky in Lexington last week 34-17, covering as a nine-point favorite and clinching the SEC East title in the process. The Bulldogs used a long punt return to set up the first touchdown of the game, led 14-3 at halftime, then scored touchdowns on their first two possessions of the second half and cruise-controlled from there for the victory and the cash.

On the day, Georgia out-gained the Wildcats 444-310 and out-rushed Kentucky 331-84. And most of the yardage the Bulldogs defense gave up came in garbage time. Georgia has now out-gained and out-rushed every opponent this season except LSU

The Bulldogs may have secured a berth in the SEC Championship Game, but if they want to return to the College Football Playoff, they cannot afford a hiccup from here on out. And style points might still count.

            

Smart betting pick

Georgia owns the better running game and the better defense, and it should win this game outright. However, following a big road victory last week, the Bulldogs might be susceptible to a letdown, to a degree, this week. Also, while teams ranked in the AP Top 25 this season are 126-38 SU against unranked teams, the unranked are 90-69-5 ATS. The smart money here takes Auburn and the points.

       

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in four of Auburn's last five games vs Georgia.

Georgia is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games at home.

The total has gone under in nine of Georgia's last 12 games at home vs teams with winning records.

     

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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