Account
College Football Odds Week 10: Picks, Predictions and Spread for Top 25 Teams
November 1, 2018
The college football universe is focused on the clash of SEC West titans taking place at Tiger Stadium on Saturday—and the enormous line that's been assigned to the game.
The stakes for No. 1 Alabama's trip to No. 3 LSU were raised a bit Tuesday night, when the Crimson Tide and Tigers landed in the top three of the initial College Football Playoff rankings.
While most of the focus will be centered on Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Week 10 is massive for a handful of other teams, including the other two SEC teams in the top 10 battling for the SEC East crown.
The Week 10 docket also features a test for No. 5 Michigan, a de facto elimination game in the Big 12 and a potentially dangerous road trip for No. 4 Notre Dame.
Week 10 Schedule and Odds
All Times ET. Odds according to OddsShark.
All picks in bold against the spread.
Thursday, November 1
Temple at No. 12 UCF (-10.5) (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Friday, November 2
Pittsburgh at No. 25 Virginia (-7.5) (7:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Saturday, November 3
Louisville at No. 2 Clemson (-39) (Noon, ABC)
Nebraska at No. 10 Ohio State (-17.5) (Noon, Fox)
No. 19 Syracuse (-6) at Wake Forest (Noon, ACC Network)
No. 20 Texas A&M at Auburn (-4) (Noon, ESPN)
No. 24 Iowa State (-14.5) at Kansas (Noon, Fox Sports Networks)
No. 6 Georgia (-9) at No. 9 Kentucky (3:30 p.m., CBS)
No. 13 West Virginia at No. 17 Texas (-2) (3:30 p.m., Fox)
No. 16 Iowa at Purdue (-2.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Florida State at No. 21 NC State (-9) (3:30 p.m., ABC)
No. 14 Penn State at No. 5 Michigan (-10.5) (3:45 p.m., ESPN)
No. 22 Boston College (-2) at Virginia Tech (3:45 p.m., ACC Network)
Missouri at No. 11 Florida (-6) (4 p.m., SEC Network)
No. 15 Utah (-7) at Arizona State (4 p.m., Pac-12 Network)
No. 4 Notre Dame (-9.5) at Northwestern (7:15 p.m., ESPN)
Louisiana Tech at No. 18 Mississippi State (-23.5) (7:30 p.m., SEC Network)
No. 1 Alabama (-14.5) at No. 3 LSU (8 p.m., CBS)
No. 7 Oklahoma (-13.5) at Texas Tech (8 p.m., ABC)
No. 23 Fresno State (-25) at UNLV (10:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
California at No. 8 Washington State (-10) (10:45 p.m., ESPN)
Predictions
Alabama 34, LSU 17
The prevailing thought surrounding Week 10's marquee matchup is that Alabama deserves to be favored by double digits until it shows any signs of weakness.
Although the 14.5-point line seems enormous for a clash between No. 1 and No. 3, it's been based off the recent history of the rivalry and the numbers put up by both offenses this season.
Alabama enters Tiger Stadium with a seven-game winning streak over LSU, dating back to the 2012 BCS National Championship.
Nick Saban's team won five of the seven games by a double-digit margin, and it's taken the matchup by a combined score of 34-10 over the past two seasons.
No matter who has started at quarterback for the Tigers, they have been unable to put up consistent offensive numbers against the Crimson Tide.
The highest point total recorded by the Tigers against the Crimson Tide during their losing streak is 17, which was their total in 2012 and 2013.
On paper, the offensive matchup leans heavily in Alabama's direction, as the Crimson Tide rank first in points per game and second in total offense and yards per game.
Conversely, LSU ranks 61st in points per game at close to 24 less than Alabama, and the Tigers average 180 fewer yards than the Crimson Tide.
The only way LSU comes out on top Saturday is if it turns the contest into a defensive struggle, and while the Tigers may be able to hold out for a half, Alabama will overpower them like it has in the past.
Georgia 31, Kentucky 20
The other game with playoff implications in the SEC takes place in an unlikely setting.
No. 6 Georgia visits No. 9 Kentucky with a berth in the SEC Championship Game most likely on the line.
With both programs sitting at 5-1 in the SEC and in possession of victories over the 4-2 Florida, the victorious team has an inside track to qualify for Atlanta, even if its slips up in November.
The Bulldogs are coming off two consecutive games against ranked opposition, with Week 9's affair in Jacksonville against Florida turning out better than the Week 7 trip to LSU.
Georgia holds the edge in big-game experience, and it has the more talented crop of players at most positions, including at quarterback with Jake Fromm.
However, Kentucky is a formidable foe with stars in running back Benny Snell and linebacker Josh Allen.
Although the Wildcats don't possess the championship experience of the Bulldogs, they have found a way to win close games in ugly fashion, especially in the past two gameweeks against Vanderbilt and Missouri.
If the Kentucky defense, which has conceded more than 20 points once this season, can find a way to frustrate Fromm and running backs D'Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield, it will remain in the game.
While the Wildcats will try their best to stay within striking distance entering the fourth quarter, the Georgia defense will make it tough on the hosts by committing numbers to stopping Snell.
A second-half turnover out of the secondary and an advantage in field position will be the second-half difference-makers for Georgia, as it edges one step closer to a rematch with Alabama.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.