Adam Kramer on College Football: Could Riley, Brohm and Campbell Be NFL Bound?
Is college football poised to be the new pipeline for NFL coaches? Is Georgia next up to hitch a ride on the quarterback carousel? And what about Week 8's must-watch games? Adam Kramer explores what's happening in college football in his weekly college football notebook, the Thursday Tailgate.
Surrounded by the intoxicated and the euphoric, Jeff Brohm looked like a man soaking in the biggest victory of his life—a win that will likely translate into many millions of dollars and potential opportunities for him in the months and years ahead.
Consider that the head coach of Purdue, a program that spent many years as a Big Ten doormat, had just beaten No. 2 Ohio State by 29 points on Oct. 20. In doing so, Brohm did more than lift a program that won nine games across the four years before his arrival. He presented himself to hungry athletic directors and NFL owners as a viable option to save someone else's football team. And he is not alone.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
In recent years, college football coaches have not made the leap to the NFL. Chip Kelly's splash landing in Philadelphia and then San Francisco put him back at the college level years later. Bill O'Brien's departure from Penn State to the Texans in 2014 is still playing out. But outside of that, with the annual speculation surrounding David Shaw's exit from Stanford—rumors that have yet to materialize— we're hearing nothing but crickets.
The NFL is becoming college football before our eyes. Coming off the second-highest-scoring Super Bowl of all time, the new winning formula in the NFL revolves around scoring points.
So the stigma that was once attached to college coaches, their quarterbacks and their systems is now gone. In fact, such coaches, quarterbacks and systems are now in demand.
Everyone wants to be the L.A. Rams, a franchise powered by a 32-year-old schematic wiz (Sean McVay) and a 24-year-old quarterback on the verge of superstardom (Jared Goff). Everyone wants the right coach to groom the next Patrick Mahomes. Teams are not running from college plays. Things like run-pass option are becoming commonplace.
A few years ago, the idea that the head football coach at Purdue could be a name on an NFL team's wish list would have been absurd. And perhaps the thought is still a year or two away. Still, the notion is no longer outlandish.
How about Matt Campbell, the head coach at Iowa State, another school that has rebounded after falling on hard times? And sure, throw the coach of a major powerhouse in there as well: Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley. He and Campbell both could receive considerable NFL interest at season's end.
Under Riley, 35, Oklahoma has the nation's No. 3 scoring offense, a year removed from losing Baker Mayfield, the Heisman winner and the No. 1 overall pick, to the NFL draft. Since being named coach after Bob Stoops retired before the 2017 season, Riley has seen his stock soar along with the performances of quarterbacks Mayfield and Kyler Murray.
Campbell, 38, is coming off his biggest victory of this season, a 30-14 win over previously unbeaten West Virginia. Last season, he led the Cyclones to wins over two top-five teams. While Iowa State's offensive numbers aren't nearly as gaudy as Oklahoma's and Purdue's, Campbell remains on the radar of other college programs and NFL teams.
Brohm, 47, has done more than conquer Ohio State. After eight weeks, Purdue has the nation's No. 10 offense. Two years ago, before Brohm left Western Kentucky, the highest-scoring program in college football in 2016, the Boilermakers were No. 101 in points scored.
There are no guarantees that any of the three will leave their posts. Riley, Campbell and Brohm all signed new deals this year, and they would likely be in line for another raise if other schools or NFL teams showed interest.
And it seems likely that the NFL, given the changing landscape of the sport, will do its fair share of window shopping in the months ahead.
Could you imagine Riley pairing up with Mayfield once again in Cleveland?
Browns fans certainly could. Oklahoma fans? Not so much.
Is This the Week Georgia's QB Conundrum Finally Materializes?
Compared to Clemson, where true freshman Trevor Lawrence replaced junior Kelly Bryant as the starter, leading to Bryant's sudden decision to transfer, the quarterback situation at Georgia has been relatively stable.
But that could be about to change. True freshman Justin Fields, a 5-star quarterback with dual-threat capabilities, has excelled with five total touchdowns in limited snaps and has shown skill that sophomore starter Jake Fromm lacks. Fromm, who has played well statistically, has thrown for 13 touchdowns to just four interceptions, but he is coming off his worst game of the year, in which he threw two interceptions and completed 47.1 percent of his passes in a loss to LSU.
Even though that loss came on the road against a team with one of the nation's best secondaries, Fromm's grip on the starting job could become less secure if he struggles early in this week's game against No. 9 Florida, the most important game the Bulldogs will play this season.
What happens if Fields spells Fromm and produces magic? That is not to say that what happens next will follow the blueprint at Clemson, where the starter was eventually overtaken, but this is the first time all season that such a thing seems possible.
An Early Look at Alabama-LSU, With Help from a Friend in the Desert
So we're cheating a little bit by talking about two teams that will enjoy byes during Week 9., But given the level of intrigue that the Alabama-LSU game in Baton Rouge will generate, let's jump ahead to Week 10 for a moment.
Already, there is controversy. Star LSU linebacker Devin White's targeting foul in the second half against Mississippi State—a call that has not been received well by those with Baton Rouge ties—will force him to miss the first half against Alabama.
Whether that has an impact on the point spread or betting will be determined next week. As for what the spread might be when two top-five teams match up, Aaron Kessler, the sportsbook director at Golden Nugget Las Vegas, has crafted his early line.
"I made Alabama a 13-point favorite," Kessler said. "I've heard anywhere from nine to 15 points, though."
To pick against Alabama, Kessler said, "You've gotta convince people to step in front of a train.
Five Games to Watch This Weekend (all times Eastern)
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 9 Florida (Saturday, 3:30 p.m.): They don't call it "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" anymore, although it will always be that in our hearts. This year, college football's tailgating mecca is also the home of the biggest game of Week 9 and one of the most important in the SEC. Chug and enjoy.
No. 17 Penn State vs. No. 18 Iowa (Saturday, 3:30 p.m.): Did you know Iowa has punted fewer times than all but eight teams nationwide this season? Weird, right? This is a different Iowa entering Happy Valley, and when these two pair up, the outcome is often (a) close and (b) strange. This year should be no exception.
No. 14 Washington State at No. 24 Stanford (Saturday, 7:00 p.m.): Given that many in Pullman have yet to sleep or go to work since Saturday night, a letdown after a historic win over Oregon seems possible. Stanford hasn't exactly been its usual dominant self, but the Cardinal could benefit greatly from timing.
No. 2 Clemson at Florida State (Saturday, noon): Let's not sugarcoat it. This is not the showdown you were hoping to see before the season—before Florida State needed fourth-quarter heroics to best mighty Samford. But the Seminoles have rallied, at least somewhat. And maybe they can push Clemson at home. (Maybe.)
No. 21 South Florida vs. Houston (Saturday, 3:30 p.m.): Yes, non-Power 5 schools are worth watching. Especially when they enter with a combined record of 13-1 and feature Houston's Ed Oliver, the best defensive player in football. This is a massive game that should feature points aplenty. Do tune in.
What Else to Watch This Weekend
First, a Delightful Thursday Night of Football (Finally)
Before the NFL decided it liked money and wanted to play football on Thursday nights, college football dominated that evening. With CFB unwilling to match up most nights in a ratings war—one that it will pretty much always lose—the quality of college games on Thursday night dwindled.
But not this week. This is an evening of solid football matchups, headlined by a few notables:
No. 13 West Virginia vs. Baylor (Thursday, 7:00 p.m.): Morgantown, West Virginia, will show out for a Thursday night. Every couch in this town is in jeopardy of being set on fire regardless of the outcome.
No. 25 Appalachian State at Georgia Southern (Thursday, 7:30 p.m.): This might be the sneakiest good game of the weekend. App State is finally ranked. Georgia Southern is 6-1. Cannot wait.
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (Thursday, 7:30 p.m.): Blacksburg, Virginia, on a Thursday night will be ready. Plus, there is option football. Sold.
Second, The Factory of Sadness Bowl (That Could Actually Be Fun)
Connecticut is allowing 651.4 yards per game, which is 110.4 yards worse per game than any other team in the nation. Seriously, we are talking about a historic level of awfulness. It is worth noting that the Huskies pushed South Florida last week and only allowed 611 yards. Baby steps.
Massachusetts, meanwhile, is 2-6 and allowing nearly 500 yards per game. It's not as bad as UConn, although the Minutemen are No. 123 in total defense.
This week, they play a football game. And while it won't be destination television, it could likely deliver the highest point total of the weekend. Still, anyone who watches this without gambling attached (take the over) deserves an honorary CFB merit badge.
Gambling Locks of the Week
Last Week: 4-2
Season to date: 25-20-1
Let us celebrate another 4-2 week by pointing out the record since Week 3. Since a rather gross beginning, locks are a lovely 22-13-1.
At this rate, the plan will be to abandon this column sometime around Thanksgiving to move to Las Vegas and do this professionally. If you don't hear from me after that, you'll know why.
Here are this week's picks, using lines provided by OddsShark.
Northwestern (+7) vs. Wisconsin: One team nearly lost to one of the worst teams in football last week. The other is Wisconsin. I'll take the other team and this funky spread.
Oklahoma State (+3) vs. Texas: On the topic of point spreads that stink, I give you Oklahoma State-Texas. Pokes win outright in a thriller.
Stanford (-3) vs. Washington State: I've expressed my thoughts on a possible Wazzu letdown already. This is me confirming those musings.
Michigan State (-2.5) vs. Purdue: Let the letdown theme flow like a fine Malbec. Sparty bounces back.
Missouri (-7) vs. Kentucky: Don't be fooled by the charm of Kentucky's season—and it is awfully charming. Mizzou by 14.
Houston (-7.5) vs. South Florida: USF has played with fire all season. Now, it will get burned as a sizable, undefeated underdog.
Adam Kramer covers college football for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @KegsnEggs.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
