Upon joining the SEC six seasons ago Texas A&M won the first two meetings with new rival Mississippi State. But the Bulldogs are 3-1 both straight up and against the spread over the last four meetings, including a victory and cover last year in College Station. The Bulldogs and Aggies meet again Saturday night in Starkville.
College football point spread: The Bulldogs opened as three-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 33.7-29.6 Bulldogs (College football picks on every game)
Why the Texas A&M Aggies can cover the spread
Texas A&M rides a three-game winning streak into this one, following its 26-23 victory at South Carolina two weeks ago. The Aggies had last week off.
Texas A&M led the Gamecocks two weeks ago 13-0 at the half and 16-0 in the third quarter, then allowed South Carolina to tie the score at 16-16 into the fourth. But the Aggies immediately drove to a field goal for the lead and added an insurance touchdown with a minute and a half to go to secure the win and the cash as a 2.5-point favorite.
On the afternoon Texas A&M out-gained the Gamecocks 458-299, dominated time of possession by a 41-19 margin and won the turnover battle 2-0, creating at least a plus-six-point differential.
The Aggies have now out-gained every opponent this season except Alabama and out-rushed every opponent except Clemson. They're also 2-0 ATS on the road this year.
Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread
Mississippi State hopes to bounce back this week after taking a 19-3 loss at LSU last week. Coming off that upset victory over Auburn two weeks prior the Bulldogs fell down to the Tigers 7-0 two minutes into the game and never quite recovered. Mississippi State only trailed 10-3 at the half and held LSU to three field goals in the second half, but just couldn't get anything going offensively.
On the night, the Bulldogs actually out-gained the Tigers 260-239 and won the ground battle 201-110. But four turnovers cost them any shot of covering the spread as six-point dogs.
On the season, MSU has now out-gained and out-rushed five of its seven opponents.
Smart betting pick
Texas A&M has out-gained its last three foes, Arkansas, Kentucky and South Carolina, by an average of 167 yards per game. Mississippi State, meanwhile, is struggling terribly with inconsistency on offense. Smart money here bets the Aggies.
College football betting trends
The total has gone under in Mississippi State's last four games.
Mississippi State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs its conference.
Texas A&M is 3-0 SU in its last three games vs its conference.
All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.