Dabo Swinney Made Right, Risky Decision with Trevor Lawrence over Kelly Bryant

It always felt inevitable Trevor Lawrence would assume the starting job at Clemson in 2018. That doesn't mean switching from Kelly Bryant to the prized freshman was a mindless decision for Dabo Swinney.

Prior to Week 5's clash with Syracuse, Swinney officially tabbed Lawrence as the No. 1 quarterback. While it has undeniable long-term advantages, the short-term outlook is fascinating.

Four games into the season, Lawrence has outplayed the incumbent. That's the tl;dr reason for the move.

After victories over Furman and Texas A&M, a Bryant-led offense failed to score on its first two drives against both Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech. Overall, on each player's first two possessions of a game, Bryant has guided the Tigers to two touchdowns, while Lawrence has steered them to five touchdowns and a field goal.

While a productive opening quarter is always important, the value increases during conference play. Competition level rises, and every league opponent wants to knock off the reigning champions. The longer they hang around, the more they start to believe an upset is possible.

Entering Week 5, the sample size is large enough to give Lawrence a clear edge in early-game performance. Starting him is only sensible.

The evidence suggests he'll be excellent as the first-stringer. And if Jake Fromm could take Georgia to the College Football Playoff in 2017, Lawrence certainly has the talent to follow suit.

Last season, though, Fromm was the injury replacement for a potential-filled player in Jacob Eason. When he returned from a knee injury, Eason couldn't point to anything more than an eight-win year. Clemson's situation is the opposite.

Bryant—who has never lost a regular-season game he finished healthy—guided the Tigers to the CFP in 2017. With him leading the offense, even if Clemson lost once prior to the ACC Championship Game, the team was an obvious choice to earn a playoff spot.

He's the safe option, and qualifying for the four-team tournament is half of the battle.

However, between Bryant's poor showing in last year's semifinal opposite Alabama—18-of-36 for 124 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, plus only 19 rushing yards—and his relative lack of improvement in 2018, the Tigers have a defined ceiling.

To win the College Football Playoff, the quarterback cannot be a question mark. Against that level of competition, Bryant is one.

Now, there's a potential upgrade available.

Again, potential.

Nobody can be certain how Lawrence will perform against an Alabama or Georgia or Ohio State.

Confidence is one thing, but the only data of him against Top 25-caliber competition was at Texas A&M. Lawrence threw a touchdown on his first pass but led the offense to only 33 total yards on his last three drives. There's a real argument Clemson doesn't win in College Station without Bryant available.

Lawrence is going to make mistakes. He won't be perfect. No quarterback is, and freshmen especially aren't. Lawrence had a tipped pass intercepted against both Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech, the latter of which was thrown into triple coverage.

When the Tigers aren't holding a comfortable 28-point lead, that type of mistake becomes glaring.

Fortunately for Lawrence, his teammates should provide a massive margin for error as he continues to learn and develop this season. It also helps that the ACC, barring a surge from Miami's offense, has no other elite contender.

According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Tigers are at least 81.8 percent likely to win each of their eight remaining regular-season contests. Games aren't won on paper—2017 Syracuse is an easy reminder—but it shows the talent that surrounds the quarterback.

Lawrence alone isn't what makes Clemson a CFP threat. Bryant wasn't either.

Mike Stewart/Associated Press

The key difference between the quarterbacks is Lawrence's ability to push the ball downfield. In four appearances, he's averaged a minimum of 9.8 yards per attempt. Bryant, through 18 career starts, has crested that mark four times.

Beating an elite defense without explosive plays through the air is exceptionally difficult, which is why Nick Saban inserted Tua Tagovailoa at halftime of the national championship last season. The southpaw's ability to stretch Georgia's defense is what turned the game around for the Crimson Tide, and Lawrence has similar upside.

Although Clemson will sacrifice designed runs with Lawrence, he's still a mobile quarterback. Tethered with his advanced feel in the pocket, Lawrence is a capable scrambler whether he's trying to buy time for receivers or run for yards.

Without question, Clemson must abide by the ever-popular coachspeak of focusing on one game at a time. Syracuse pulled an upset last season, and a two-loss regular season would be an absolute letdown for Swinney's team. As talented as Lawrence is, he's shouldering a heavy burden of expectation now.

But this program has earned the right to be thinking about how to defeat—not merely take on—Alabama-caliber teams in December and January.

Lawrence is the most promising solution to that dilemma.

Even if he's technically the unproven one.

Update

Bryant has since decided to transfer, according to Manie Robinson of the Greenville News. The senior understandably protected his interests, deciding to preserve a redshirt season rather than appear in a fifth game for Clemson this year.

As long as the Tigers keep winning, the locker room—even if some are disappointed at the switch—should remain content. But now that Clemson doesn't have an experienced emergency backup plan, the pressure to lead a CFP charge is entirely on Lawrence.

All recruiting information via 247Sports. Stats from NCAA.com, cfbstats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.