Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Michigan Wolverines Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 19, 2018

Nebraska head coach Scott Frost follows the second half of an NCAA college football game against Troy in Lincoln, Neb., Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. Troy won 24-19. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)
Nati Harnik/Associated Press

Stretching back to last season, the Nebraska Cornhuskers own a six-game losing streak, going 1-5 against the spread in the process.

What chance does Nebraska have of keeping Saturday afternoon's bout with hosts Michigan at the Big House in Ann Arbor close?

      

College football point spread: The Wolverines opened as 18-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 35.1-13.9 Wolverines (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

      

Why the Nebraska Cornhuskers can cover the spread

The Cornhuskers are a tough client to shill for at the moment, playing against the apparently heavy learning curve under new coach Scott Frost. Nebraska opened this season with 33-28 loss to Colorado and last week lost to Troy 24-19.

The Cornhuskers fell down to the Trojans 17-0 in the second quarter, battled back to within 17-13 in the third and later pulled to within 24-19 with three minutes to go. They also got the ball back but threw an interception to end the rally.

Nebraska actually outgained Troy 364-253, outrushed the Trojans 187-143, made 22 first downs to 12 for Troy and held a 33/27 edge in time of possession.

But the Cornhuskers also lost a fumble inside Trojans territory, threw an interception near mid-field, gave up a touchdown on a punt return, missed a short field goal, committed two personal fouls on one Troy scoring drive, kept another alive with a pass interference call on a third down and settled for a field goal after reaching the Trojans' 6-yard line.

If a couple of those things don't happen, Nebraska has a chance to win that game.

Two weeks ago, the Cornhuskers outgained Colorado 565-395 but gave up a long touchdown with a minute to go to lose.

Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread

The Wolverines opened this season with that disappointing loss at Notre Dame, but they're 2-0 since then after staving off SMU at home last week 45-20.

Michigan drew first blood with a touchdown midway through the second quarter and used a long pick-six on the final play of the first half to lead 21-7 into the locker rooms. The Wolverines then scored three touchdowns and kicked a field goal on their four second-half possessions to lock victory down.

Michigan outgained the Mustangs 434-319 and won the ground game 197-110.

Two weeks ago, the Wolverines carded a 49-3 win over Western Michigan, covering as 27-point favorites.

     

Smart betting pick

Michigan did not look good on offense in its loss to the Irish—its only game so far against a Power 5 foe. And playing at home means the spread is probably inflated.

Nebraska, meanwhile, has actually outgained both of its opponents this season by 140 yards per game, but mistakes have proved costly. If the Cornhuskers can tighten up their game and put 20 points on the board like the Mustangs did last week, they'll cover this spread.

     

College football betting trends

Nebraska is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games against Michigan.

The total has gone over in four of Michigan's last five games at home.

Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in its last five games on the road.

       

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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