Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Kentucky Wildcats Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

Mississippi State owns the recent rivalry with Kentucky, winning eight of the last nine matchups outright, including a 45-7 decision last year, going 6-3 against the spread over that span.

Can the Bulldogs not just win but cover double digits when they scrap with the Wildcats on Saturday night in Lexington, Kentucky?

College football point spread: The Bulldogs opened as 11-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 43.4-18.8 Bulldogs (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

Mississippi State is 3-0 both straight up and ATS this season after disposing of Louisiana-Lafayette last week, 56-10, and covering as a 34-point favorite.

The Bulldogs spotted the Cajuns an early field goal then drove 74, 62, 67, 48 and 64 yards to touchdowns on their five first-half possessions to take a 35-3 lead into the locker room. Mississippi State then scored touchdowns on its first two second-half possessions and cruised from there.

The Bulldogs racked up 607 yards of offense, 331 on the ground and 276 through the air.

Mississippi State opened this season with a 63-6 romp over Stephen F. Austin, covering as a 47-point favorite, then won at Kansas State 31-10, covering as six-point chalk. The Bulldogs outgained and outrushed the Wildcats by margins of 538-213 and 384-113, respectively.

Why the Kentucky Wildcats can cover the spread

Kentucky is also 3-0 on the season after taking care of Murray State last week 48-10. The Wildcats drove the opening possession of the game 91 yards to a touchdown, led 17-0 before allowing the Racers to hit the board and then hit the scoreboard themselves on all five second-half possessions to pull away.

Unfortunately for Kentucky financial backers, the Wildcats gave up a meaningless touchdown with 30 seconds to go and missed the cover as 41-point favorites.

Kentucky amassed 528 yards of offense—245 on the ground and 283 through the air.

Two weeks ago the Wildcats removed a huge burden from their shoulders, beating Florida in Gainesville 27-16 to halt a 31-game losing streak against the Gators. Kentucky outrushed Florida that day 303-128.

Smart betting pick

Mississippi State is rolling with quarterback Nick Fitzgerald and will probably win this game. But the Wildcats showed some maturity by avoiding a letdown last week, they can run the ball with Benny Snell Jr. and they're playing decent defense. The smart money takes Kentucky and the points.

College football betting trends

The total has gone over in four of Mississippi State's last five games on the road against Kentucky.

The total has gone over in four of Kentucky's last five games versus teams in its conference.

Mississippi State is 21-6 SU in its last 27 games in September.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.