Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ole Miss Rebels: Odds, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 11, 2018

TUSCALOOSA, AL - SEPTEMBER 08:  Tua Tagovailoa #13 of the Alabama Crimson Tide waits to hold the ball for an extra point by Joseph Bulovas #97 against the Arkansas State Red Wolves at Bryant-Denny Stadium on September 8, 2018 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Alabama owns 12 victories in the last 14 meetings with Ole Miss, but the Rebels are 3-1 against the spread over the last four encounters, upsetting the Tide twice and keeping another game close.

Who's the smart betting pick for Saturday night's Alabama-Ole Miss match in Oxford?

           

College football point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 22.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 48.8-24.6 Crimson Tide (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

            

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

The national champs are 2-0 both straight up and ATS this season, following their 57-7 romp over Arkansas State last week. The Tide scored touchdowns on Tua Tagovailoa passes on their first three possessions, led 40-0 at the half and cruised from there, covering as 37-point favorites.

On the day, Alabama racked up 599 yards of offense, 278 on the ground and 321 through the air. Also, the Tide defense scored on a pick-six in the second quarter, the third defensive/special teams touchdown of the year for Alabama.

The Crimson Tide opened this season with that 51-14 laugher over Louisville, covering as 23-point favorites. Last year, Alabama destroyed Ole Miss 66-3, covering a 30-point spread.

        

Why the Ole Miss Rebels can cover the spread

The Rebels are also 2-0 both SU and ATS, after outscoring FCS Southern Illinois last week 76-41.

Ole Miss spotted the Salukis the first touchdown of the game and trailed 38-35 at halftime. But the Rebels then won the second half 41-3, scoring the last 34 points of the game, covering as 28-point favorites.

On the day, Ole Miss piled up 646 yards of offense, doing most of the damage through the air. Quarterback Jordan Ta'amu threw for 448 yards and five touchdowns, while three different receivers caught at least 90 yards' worth of balls and four different receivers caught touchdown passes.

Meanwhile, the Rebels' defense scored two touchdowns, helping Ole Miss pull away late.

The Rebels opened this season with a 47-27 victory over Texas Tech, covering as three-point favorites.

          

Smart betting pick

What's not mentioned above is the 629 yards the Ole Miss defense allowed to an FCS offense last week. A performance like that this week might see the Crimson Tide score 80.

Also, Alabama's playing on the road, where the spreads tend to be friendlier.

Smart money here rides the Tide.

           

College football betting trends

The total has gone over in Alabama's last three games against Ole Miss.

The total has gone over in eight of Ole Miss' last 10 games against its conference.

Ole Miss is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home.

          

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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