UNLV Rebels vs. USC Trojans Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

The USC Trojans, always a favorite among the betting public, are just 3-7 against the spread their last 10 times out as a betting favorite. The UNLV Rebels, on the other hand, are 8-2 ATS their last 10 times out as a betting underdog. Which way will the spread fall when UNLV takes on USC in the season opener for both teams Saturday afternoon at the Coliseum?

College football point spread: The Trojans opened as 31.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 44.2-20.0 Trojans (College football picks on every game)

Why the UNLV Rebels can cover the spread

The Rebels return 14 starters this season from a team that finished 5-7 last season, their best record in five years. UNLV started 2-5 last year, won three of its next four games, but lost a tough one to Nevada in the season finale. The Rebs also might have made a bowl if they hadn't blown a 27-point lead in a loss to Air Force

Nonetheless UNLV enters this season with a degree of heightened enthusiasm. Seven starters are back on an offense that averaged 427 yards per game last year, led by sophomore quarterback Armani Rogers, senior running back Lexington Thomas (1,336 yards rushing last year, 17 touchdowns) and three along the offensive line. And seven starters are back on defense, led by four of last year's top five tacklers.

UNLV is 0-4 SU but 3-1 ATS in four games against Power 5 opponents under head coach Tony Sanchez.

Why the USC Trojans can cover the spread

The Trojans return 13 starters from a team that finished 11-3 last season and won the Pac-12 championship, before losing their bowl game to Ohio State. Southern Cal is now 27-10 under head coach Clay Helton. Seven starters are back on an offense that averaged 484 yards per game last season, led by four along the offensive line.

The Trojans must replace their starting quarterback (Sam Darnold), last year's leading rusher (Ronald Jones II) and leading receiver (Deontay Burnett), but the incoming talent, led by freshman quarterback JT Daniels, comes highly regarded. And six starters are back on defense, including all three among what should be one of the best linebacking corps in the country.

USC is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS its last five times out against non-Power 5 opponents.

Smart betting pick

Southern Cal is likely to win this game outright; the only thing that really matters is the final margin. But the Trojans are replacing some key people on offense, and they also have a huge early-season Pac-12 showdown with Stanford next week. So they may choose to play this game conservatively.

UNLV, meanwhile, would love nothing more than to give a good showing against a high-profile opponent. Smart money here takes the points with the Rebels.

College football betting trends

USC is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite.

The total has gone under in five of USC's last six games against the Mountain West.

UNLV is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.