West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Tennessee Volunteers Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

Tennessee is just 1-5 both straight up and against the spread its last six times out against the Big 12. West Virginia, meanwhile, is 1-5 SU and 3-3 ATS its last six times out against the SEC. Who is the smart bet to cover the spread in the first-ever meeting between the Mountaineers and the Volunteers on Saturday afternoon on neutral turf in Charlotte, North Carolina?

College football point spread: The Mountaineers opened as seven-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.8-19.2 Mountaineers (College football picks on every game)

Why the West Virginia Mountaineers can cover the spread

West Virginia returns 12 starters this year from a team that finished 7-6 last year. The Mountaineers actually started 7-3 last season but lost quarterback Will Grier to injury and consequently lost their last three games, including a bowl to Utah.

Seven starters return on an offense that averaged 459.5 yards per game last season, led by Heisman-candidate Grier (career 44-15 touchdown-interception ratio), three of last year's top four receivers and four along the offensive line. And while only five starters are back on defense, that's two more than they returned each of the last two seasons.

Why the Tennessee Volunteers can cover the spread

The Vols return 11 starters this season from a team that fell to 4-8 last season. Tennessee actually started 3-1 last year, but injuries took a serious toll and the Volunteers lost seven of their last eight games.

Tennessee now begins anew under new head coach Jeremy Pruitt, who has won two national championships as defensive coordinator at Florida State in 2013 and at Alabama last year. Five starters are back on offense for the Vols, including last year's top two receivers and three along the offensive line. They also brought in former Stanford quarterback Keller Chryst (19-6 career touchdown-interception ratio) as a senior transfer. And six starters are back on defense, including last year's top four tacklers.

Smart betting pick

Grier is one of the top quarterbacks in the country, throwing to one of the best receiving corps in the country. West Virginia might score more than the 35 points per game it averaged last year.

On the other side of this matchup, Tennessee is a project at the moment, with a new coaching regime and new systems and the accompanying learning curve. Smart money here sides with the Mountaineers.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in Tennessee's last three games in September.

Tennessee is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games against the Big 12.

The total has gone under in four of West Virginia's last five games.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.